Speaker 1: And my line of work. As you can imagine, I get asked all the time, Do you have an EV and I don't, and here's why. Not that I've got all the answers, but it might help inform you in your search of yours, perhaps. Number one of all my reasons is that this is a lousy time to buy any car unless you have to. With supply chain issues, with inflation and with [00:00:30] what's going on with kind of some weird new market dynamics out there. Changing from combustion to electric models, this is a really expensive time to buy a new or used car. I don't relish getting in line to pay top dollar for something which depreciates
Speaker 1: Compounding That point is the fact that I generally try not to buy new cars. I love lightly used well cared for a late model used cars. It's just a really [00:01:00] smart way to buy. However, I do acknowledge that you've gotta be, uh, pretty flexible in what kind of car you're gonna get. You don't just pick what you want or configure and order it, and you have to realize that there are some additional headaches with any used car. You're buying down the trough, if you will, and you know, often someone else's problems become yours. But overall, I do really well with late model used cars and there are not enough electrics in history for that to be a really robust market just yet. [00:01:30] Oh, by the way, when I do buy a used dv, which I probably will, I'm not gonna be too concerned about the fact that it'll have some depreciated range on its battery. That's fine by me. See my piece recently about a reality check for how much range you really need. It's less than you think. My next concern is there has to be something more than Tesla, right? Tesla makes some great cars. However, I know there are a whole bunch of more great [00:02:00] cars from great car makers coming and on the market now, General Motors and Hyundai and Kia are just some examples, but we're about to see a lot of other shoes drop. I just feel like it's still a little early and we're gonna see a lot of other definitions and visions of the market than just the company that's done so so far.
Speaker 1: Now, along those lines, I've covered a lot of technology revolutions in my career, and one thing I've noticed in their first seven to maybe 10 years, they're typified by [00:02:30] some real cutting edge leaders and convulsive innovation, and then you settle into three, maybe four leaders, really more like three that have almost equally good products that do all about the same thing, and the differences end up being minor. That's the kind of healthy, competitive, robust market that I like to spend my own money in when I'm buying tech. We do not have that right now. That requires some patience. 18 to 24 months, you're gonna have a completely different landscape of really credible cars to consider.
Speaker 1: [00:03:00] Now, when it comes to charging, I'm not terribly concerned. I live in a single family home. I would install a level two charge connector and I'd be good to go. Although there are some interesting new rumblings out there that we should spend more time charging during the day at public locations, not focus so much on overnight charging at our home location. This was the big thrust of an interesting new study coming outta Stanford not too long ago. It found that there are real [00:03:30] benefits to the stability and the greenness of the grid. If we charge that way and not just at home at night, it rattles around the back of my mind. Then I think, you know, it's not a bad thing to take advantage of tomorrow's infrastructure if that's part of my strategy of waiting a little longer.
Speaker 1: Then there are a couple of conundrums that are always kind of nagging at the back of my mind, the two big setbacks. You typically buy an EV because you want reduce emissions and [00:04:00] reduce your cost per mile of driving, right? Great ideas except upfront for the first year or two or maybe longer, you actually are putting more emissions in the environment and spending more money, more emissions because you caused a car to be manufactured and all of its materials to be produced and shipped, assembled, and then shipped to you. There's a notable and real carbon load there and you're spending more money because, well, let's face it, you went out and bought a car that you probably didn't really need that could be tens of thousands of [00:04:30] dollars that you have to earn back $5 a gallon at a time, if you will. So I'm not saying that buying an EV should be put off forever because these arguments will never go away. On the other hand, I do like taking my time to wait for the points that I just mentioned to help offset these two conundrums.
Speaker 1: Now, here's a tech concern that has me on the sidelines a little bit. Solid state batteries. They are said to be arriving in three, maybe five years at scale [00:05:00] in production cars. Now, that's a bit of a bet because they're not imminent yet, but when they do, they are promising as much as a 40% reduction in carbon footprint. They are promising to give you a better faster charge, 80% in 15 minutes in many cases, and also allowing cars to use a smaller battery to get current range, which is usually ample, meaning the car can continue to work on being lighter as well as being less expensive. I don't think this is gonna be [00:05:30] a huge hang up for most buyers. It's a little bit of a perspective bet, but then again, you also don't wanna be the last person who bought a laptop with nickel metal H rides.
Speaker 1: The new rules for federal incentives got broader and tighter at the same time. See my piece explaining all the details, but the bottom line is most watchers have analyzed it and say something like 70% of EVs will not qualify for the next year or two for a federal tax incentive or at least a full incentive based on where their materials came from or [00:06:00] where they were assembled or what their sticker price is. There's a whole lot of new hurdles the car has to jump to get the full $7,500 federal credit. The good news is there's now also a $4,000 used EV credit, but again, it's a more complicated minefield to qualify for. I wanna see more models hit the market that hit all the marks to get the full tax credit. Here's one that I think about buying an EV that uses gas. We call those plugin [00:06:30] hybrids. The latest models have enough pure electric range for many people's daily driving, including mine, but with no range anxiety when they don't, and at least one reputable study has found that plug-in hybrids have a smaller lifetime carbon footprint than pure electrics. Here's a simple one. I drive a lot less since Covid and I always will at this point. Things have changed. That means an electric cars benefits have far fewer miles [00:07:00] upon which to act upon, which to pay off than they would have just two or so short years ago. Maybe that's the case for you as well.
Speaker 1: This one's kind of big and nebulous, but I don't like single points of failure and as we are electrifying our society for good reasons, that's what we're driving toward. I'm kind of uncomfortable with my car getting into that basket as well, along with so many systems in homes and everywhere else. I will never not have one or two [00:07:30] or right now, four combustion engine cars. I have too many driving styles, trip types and vehicle types that I like. Having access to an EV is gonna fit in that portfolio, but it's not gonna replace them. Okay? At this point, I've made the heads of Tesla roti and tree huggers and coal rollers all explode. But this is just what I think about and I spend a lot of time looking at and thinking about vehicles. When I wonder [00:08:00] when will I buy an ev? It's not a matter of if it's a matter of when, but maybe this will help give you a little additional information and perspective as you work through a bunch of issues. Many of these, I'm sure you're thinking about and maybe a few that you hadn't.