Musk predicts 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road next year
Musk predicts 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road next year
9:50

Musk predicts 1 million Tesla robotaxis on the road next year

Auto Tech
[APPLAUSE] [BLANK_AUDIO] [INAUDIBLE] I was gonna introduce Pete, but Juan is done. So Pete's just the best trip and system architect that I know in Weldon, and it's an honor to have you and your team at Tesla And well take it away. Tell them about the incredible work that your team has done. Thanks Eli. It's a pleasure to be here this morning and a real treat really to tell you about all the work that my colleagues and I have been doing here at Tesla for the last three years. Here's what it looks like. Over there on the right UCLA connectors for the video that comes in from all the cameras that are in the car. You can see the two self driving computers in the middle of the board. And then on the left is the power supply and some control connections. And so I really love it when a solution is boiled down to its barest elements you have video computing and power. And it's straightforward and simple. Here's the original Hardware 2.5 enclosure that the computer went into. And then we've been shipping for the last two years. Here's the new design for the FSD computer, it's basically the same. And that, of course, is driven by the constraints of having a retro fit program for the cars. I like to point out that this is actually a pretty small computer, it fits behind the glovebox, between the glovebox and the firewall in the car. It does not take up half your trunk. As I said earlier there's two fully independent computers on the board. You can see them there highlighted in blue and green. To either side of the large XOC you can see the DRAM chips that we used for storage and below left you see the flash chips that represent the file systems. So these are two independent computers that boot up and run their own operating system. Yeah, if I can add something. The general principle here is that any part of this can fail and the car will keep driving. So you can have cameras fail, you can have power circuits fail, you can have one of the Tesla full stop driving computer chips fail. Car keeps driving. The probability of this computer failing is substantially lower than somebody losing consciousness. That's the key metric, at least in order of magnitude. [BLANK_AUDIO] Moving on to talk about the full self-driving chip a littl bit. It's packaged in a 37.5 millimeter BGA, with 1,600 balls. Most of those are used for power in ground, but plenty for signal as well. If you take the lid off, it looks like this you can see the package substrate and you can see the dice sitting in the center there. If you take the die off and flip it over, it looks like this. There's 13,000 C4 bumps scattered across the top of the die. And then underneath that are 12 metal layers, if you which is obscuring all the details of the design. So if you strip that off It look like this. This is a 14 nanometer finFet CMOS process. It's 260 millimeters in size, which is a modest sized die. So for comparison, typical cell phone chip is about 100 millimeters square. So we're quite a bit bigger than that, but a high end GPU would be more like 600 to 800 millimeters square. So we're sort of in the middle, I would call it the sweet spot, it's a comfortable size to build. There's 250 million logic gates on there and a total of 6 billion transistors, which even though I work on this all the time, that's mind boggling to me. The reason I asked Pete to do just a detailed, far more detailed than most people would appreciate, dive into the Tesla full self driving computer is because, of course, it seems improbable. How could it be? [UNKNOWN] who has never designed a trip before will design the best trip in the world. But that is objectively what is occur, not best by a small margin best by a huge margin, it's in the course right now. All [UNKNOWN] being produced right now have this computer All cars being produced have all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for full self driving. I'll say that again, all Tesla cars being produced right now have everything necessary for full self driving. All you need to do is improve the software. And later today you will drive the cars with the development version of the improved software, and you will see for yourselves. The chip is designed to process video input in case you use, let's say, light or would it be able to process that as well, or is it Primarily for video we're going to explain to you today is that lidar is is a Fool's errand and anyone to luck relying on lidar is doomed doomed expensive expensive sensors. That are unneccessary, it's like having a whole bunch of appendices. One appendix is bad, well, another one or a whole bunch of them, that's ridiculous, you'll see. We're gonna do the [UNKNOWN] thing too. Only criticism and it's a fair one. Sometimes I'm not on time, [LAUGH] But I get it done. And the Tesla team gets it done. So what we're gonna do this year is we're gonna reach a combined production of 10,000 a week between S, X, and 3. I feel very confident about that. And we feel very confident about being future complete with self-driving. Next year will expand the product line with model Y and semi and we expect to have the first operating Robo taxis next year. With no one in them next year. [BLANK_AUDIO] When things are at an exponential rate of improvement, it's very difficult to wrap one's mind around it, because we're used to extrapolating on a linear basis. But when you've got massive amounts of Massive as a hardware on the road, the cumulative data is increasing exponentially. The software is getting better at an exponential rate. I feel very confident predicting autonomous robot taxes Tesla next year. Learn all the restrictions because one have regular for approval everywhere but I've I've uncovered will have least regulatory approval somewhere literally next year. So a customer will be able to add or remove the car to the Tesla the network. So expect this to operate. It's like a combination of maybe the Uber and AirBNB model. So if you own the car, you can add or subtract it to the Tesla network and Tesla would take 25% or 30% of the revenue. And in places where there aren't enough people sharing their cars we would just have dedicated Tesla vehicles. So when you use the car, we'll show you our ride-sharing app. So you'll be able to summon the car from the parking lot. You get in and go for a drive. It's really simple. You just take the same Tesla app that. currently have one student will update the app and add as someone tells her or commit your car to the fleet. So see that someone your car or somebody tells her or add or subtract your car to the fleet you'll be able to do that from your phone So the current cost of model three Robotaxi is less then $38,000, we expect that number to improve over time. The cars currently being built are all designed for a million miles of operation, so drive units designed and tested and validated for million miles of operation. The car battery pack is about maybe 300 to 500,000 miles. The new battery pack that's probably going to production next year is designed exclusively for a million miles of operation. The entire vehicle battery pack inclusive it's designed to operate for a million miles with minimal maintenance. So actually addressing tire design and really optimizing the car for the hyper-efficient RoboTaxi and at some point, you won't need steering wheels or pedals. We'll just delete those. As these become less and less important, we'll just delete parts. They won't be there. Say like probably two years from now we make a car that has no steering wheels, or pedals and if we need to accelerate that time we can always just delete parts easy. But next year for sure we'll have over a million robot taxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over the air update, that's all it takes. [BLANK_AUDIO] You say, what is net present value of Robotaxi? Probably on the order of a couple hundred thousand dollars. So buying a model 3 is a good deal.

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