A shortage of
liquid crystal screens will hit in 2000, affecting both
notebook makers and the burgeoning market for flat-panel displays,
according to a new
study.
By 2000, there will be a shortage of 2.66 million LCD screens, according to a quarterly survey of flat-panel and notebook
manufacturers from DisplaySearch, which may result in
higher notebook prices and stifled LCD growth in the desktop market.
The shortage "could push notebook prices upwards," said Ross Young,
president of DisplaySearch, noting that component cost reductions will have
to offset any price increases on LCDs.
High-end desktop PCs have been targeted as a potential growth area for flat-panel displays, especially as prices have come down under $1,000. The
number of desktop LCD screens is expected to more than double in 1998,
increasing from 430,000 to 1.06 million, according to the study. That
growth rate of more than 100 percent should continue in 1999, with desktop
LCD screens increasing to 2.186 million.
But by 2000, LCD desktop display growth will slow to about 25 percent,
according to the study, because tight supply will halt the steady price
decreases. The shortage is a consequence of a mismatch in production
capacity and manufacturer demand, Young said.
In 1998, demand for LCDs was lower than expected. The result: a glut of
displays on the market, declining LCD prices, financial losses for LCD
manufacturers, and decreasing investments in 1999 to meet the demand in 2000.
Also, LCD manufacturers were hit by the financial crisis in Asia,
which has restricted the supply of money needed to add new LCD
manufacturing capacity, Young said.
The LCD industry is dominated by Japanese and Korean manufacturers.
"There
really is no other source of supply other than Taiwan," Young said.
Although four new Taiwanese manufacturers plan to enter the LCD market in
1999, "We still don't think that will be enough capacity," he said.
While the news might be bad for consumers and computer makers, it could
help the display manufacturers themselves.
"The flat-panel industry has been hurting financially the last 18 months,"
suffering from an oversupply and resulting price drops. "I think this
shortage will allow them to get healthy and regain some profitability, or
at least reduce losses."
Although firm data isn't yet in, it's likely that the LCD shortage will
taper off in 2001, he said. "In 2001, we see enough capacity to come on
line to end the shortage," Young said.
At least one notebook maker discounted any effect of a possible shortage.
IBM does not foresee any shortages in displays for its ThinkPad line of
portable computers, said James Scailes of IBM, because Big Blue has a stake in its suppliers and can control
its own supply.