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Analyst: iPhone 5 could double Apple's market share

A small survey of mobile phone owners by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster shows pent-up demand for the iPhone 5 and the potential for the upcoming new phone to double the iPhone's market share.

Lance Whitney Contributing Writer
Lance Whitney is a freelance technology writer and trainer and a former IT professional. He's written for Time, CNET, PCMag, and several other publications. He's the author of two tech books--one on Windows and another on LinkedIn.
Lance Whitney
2 min read

Could Apple double its market share with the iPhone 5?
Could Apple double its market share with the iPhone 5? Apple

With pent-up demand for the iPhone 5, the new phone could double Apple's market share, according to an investor's report released yesterday by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

Surveying a sampling of 216 mobile phone users, Munster found huge demand for the iPhone 5 among both current iPhone users and those who own other smartphones.

Looking at all those surveyed, 29 percent currently own iPhones and 17 percent have an Android phone, leaving 28 percent with a BlackBerry and the rest with other types of phones.

Among existing iPhone owners, 94 percent of those surveyed expect to buy another iPhone, leaving only 6 percent eyeing an Android device. But among current Android smartphone users, 42 percent said they're likely to switch to the iPhone.

Among Verizon subscribers in general who don't presently own an iPhone, 55 percent expect to buy one, with 74 percent specifically waiting for the iPhone 5. That number compares with 53 percent of AT&T customers specifically awaiting the next model iPhone.

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Of all the respondents, 64 percent plan to pick up an iPhone when it's time to buy a new phone. Further, 60 percent are waiting for the iPhone 5 as opposed to allowing their contract to expire or their current phone to break down.

Though the survey targeted only a small number of mobile phone users, it does highlight a demand build-up for the next iPhone. Such demand is due in large part to the longer wait time (14 months assuming the iPhone 5 debuts in September versus the usual 12-month cycle), according to Munster.

In light of the demand, Munster believes the iPhone 5 may push Verizon's numbers even higher than the 3.8 million iPhones that Piper Jaffray is estimating the carrier will sell in the September quarter. And the overall iPhone unit estimate of 22 million for the quarter may also "prove to be conservative."