Next-generation appliances combining television and computer functions are
expected to take over family rooms, but mobile consumer devices that
integrate PC features are already available and will not likely disappear
any time soon.
So-called intelligent devices like cell phones, pagers, and screen phones
are already shipping in high volume. And unlike TV set-top devices that
replace many PC functions, consumers will likely own one or more of these
mobile digital devices in addition to a PC.
International Data Corporation
predicts a big year for these devices in 1999:
The market for these smart
devices will grow 45 percent to 10.7 million units, according to the market
researcher.
For example, though new handheld PCs from the likes of Compaq and Hewlett-Packard will have a minor impact on
the market in 1998 they should begin to take off in 1999, the report says.
Also, 3Com's PalmPilot has maintained a
large chunk of the handheld market with a 41.4 share, up from 32.0 percent
for the same period last year. "3Com continues to grow despite the threat
of new Palm-
size PC devices," IDC said.
But other areas will also see growth.
"The area that we are most bullish
on is in the cellular mobile arena," said Seamus McAteer, a Web
technologies analyst for Jupiter Communications. "That's going to be
driven by the addition of micro-browsers and email clients to conventional
cellular handsets and growth in the smart phone arena."
"PCs are going to continue to fall in price, and if there's one thing we've
learned, it's that old technology doesn't just roll over," he said. "PC
penetration will continue to climb, and Internet appliances will co-opt
certain functional elements of the PC for a specific domain."
Pager and cell phone makers in particular will be pushing
services such as text-based email and limited Internet updates, McAteer said.
"It's a function of industry dynamics. Vendors must grow the average
revenue per subscriber, and the way to do that is to convert alpha-numeric
pagers to text-based paging, which becomes email. Internet connectivity is
enabling utility, rather than displacing the PC. We view a lot of Internet
devices as peripherals that will be used in conjunction with the PC," he said.
Jupiter projects several different categories of pagers
and cell phones
will emerge over the next few years. High-end cell phones and pagers with
integrated organizers will share shelf space with lower-end models that
simply receive specially formatted text information, he said.
Similarly, screen phones will appear in
different flavors, offering varying
forms of interactivity. Some will merely offer caller ID or email alerts,
while higher-end versions will be able to access the Internet through a
separate phone line.
Unlike the complicated world of set-top appliances, which is awash in
competing technologies, consumers won't have to worry as much about smart
cell phones or pagers made obsolete by standards battles.
"This is not about Silicon Valley. This is consumer electronics," McAteer
said. "[Manufacturers] are not worried about Java or [Windows] CE,
and consumers aren't going to care either way, once they
get compelling
services."
But IDC warns that the smart phone market is still too new and that its
nascent state will prevent it from growing leaps and bounds. "The smart
phone market continues to perform under expectations due to high device
costs, continuing product delays, and wireless infrastructure issues
affecting the U.S.," IDC says.
IDC also asserts that for the market for Windows CE handhelds to be
successful, "vendors must pass several hurdles including educating the
market and managing user expectations. Vendors also need to provide
PC-style service and support
programs, and align device price points so they do not collide with
low-cost notebooks."
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