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Buzz Out Loud
Ep. 1572: 2012 Predictions ShowIt's our annual prediction extravaganza! Stephen, the All-Seeing Eye, NostraTongus, and Molly the Mage look into 2012 and guess at which companies, which gadgets, and which trends will appear, die, expand, or maybe just go horribly wrong. Spoiler: we...
Today is Thursday December 20 ninth 2011 my -- Steven -- of. I'm Brian -- and I'm Molly Wood -- -- a buzz out loud cnet's podcast of indeterminate length it is episode 15172. Hour special special special. -- you'll annual annual 20121002. Is that -- prediction New Year's -- Del -- Making predictions make -- -- because if you've seen in our history and the things that we set on the record. Pretty much every show we've been right on the money from the -- -- to hear -- -- itself. You can you can be sure that everything you hear. Here will be. Will happen in 2000 well you definitely -- because we are nothing if not amazing at this and I'm here highly listened yeah I think you'll see from their results show from last year Howell. -- is dead on the money on the money on the money that whole trend for -- -- totally exploded that your what was that. I mean I thought it was pretty ged but I said like -- -- year like kind of CDs is that if there'd be like that first. This settlement yeah exactly and it started to trickle but it related. It didn't cause any honest on the way there that's a big thing at the FaceBook F eight conference it was a big focus on food -- here and we saw bison burgers -- yet. Tea and Zuckerberg and it. Writes that that seat. We just haven't seeing -- as the established a network rightly cream rise the top of food -- so boat here to talk about you know. Yea breathing down your organs are better predictions that are gonna totally come true build toll -- totally in fact that's why we're gonna start off an easy. Did little softball it is up I think we possibly we might have that very introduce first -- -- -- use it again they were and that one. You had just come just for the record we have none of us have looked at each other's predictions. As for the record so the way to show works is that we alternate we go around the room in a clockwise fashion -- -- -- says the prediction and we do not know what the -- gonna say thank you -- moments of -- beaming from raise the. For similar. Or I was at that hour you know like -- oh -- man -- Contents I -- essentially start off let's start -- is the acting -- We're all gonna be in agreement on this one tank back to eating -- -- together. One Q3. Facebook. Goes public IPO via basement goes IP via -- message like. You don't even have to work to be in our spots against. My mom -- yet. Islands in the people Steve. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I will then give -- many years in a -- when my my first prediction can do that iPad three will have 3-D in 2001. To rule sets a good dialect that specific ambitions. It's a business that's gonna happen if I -- it. I -- -- glasses free glasses street in measure a day. -- -- and I am I'm not a hater I'm just no audience and that's in this production. That's an extradition. I what are you gonna. Well I I thought we are still -- softball but this line. All signs point of this happening AT&T T-Mobile merger -- happen. Yeah yeah I bad I gotta say that's on oral all of our list as a -- -- -- dies for good. Net and we will shed no tears and -- has not gonna happen when it first happened that we first for the -- it sounded pretty scary like it was really gonna go down Bullock's department justice. Jumped in. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I and other things I think are getting go nowhere actually and the -- may be -- said before a couple of weeks ago I think mobile payments. Not going anywhere in 22 -- And -- I've split NFC will still be grounded animal take off in 2012. -- So you actually don't -- -- this and or our planet. They unity and I I even looked in your eyes and I might I think she's gonna see something in and a simple -- as you use edit. I can sniff out yet and that's of the top of my list is now -- -- that's right after this because -- awesome now awesome. So why why do you think that's gonna happen -- because -- galaxy nexus thing that has happened recently. -- being involved we saw how Verizon deliberately shutting down that feature which means it's another kind of standards battle where you have. Two organizations trying to see -- who's gonna succeed. We're not gonna let you do this on our platform we're not gonna -- -- -- they won't make it compatible consumers will be going like I don't know what to do where will my Google wallet where it's just gonna be a man. -- yet that it's gonna take a dinosaur it's a mess because you have the carrier step that carrier backed. Method which is -- which only has three of the four carriers on board. It's already -- -- mess and you have McDougall version Google wallet there have -- some interesting rumblings actually. The part of the reason. That the galaxy nexus was delayed over -- it was because. What Verizon actually asked Google -- was access to the secure portions of NFC chip boom and they Google's that now. That's our feature. Which if true puts the lie to Google saying Android is open right if it's so open and you should let Verizon -- access and offer their own competing service on the -- So they said no I mean it's it's very interesting like. Back and forth and so anyway it's a mess -- visa and MasterCard are all trying to in the game by backing various services Genesis. It's all over the place right now yeah it's pretty it's pretty ugly all I know I know who could solve this problem Apple. I payments a standard for everyone over -- you know it's actually scary about that is not a prediction. -- -- it might -- -- and faculty are genetically materialized yet. You know who knows -- I don't think it'll happen -- but -- that's because that iPhone is so prevalent they could push for it it's always one of those things rate. Like beta was ousted. By VHS eventually but one of the Sanders happen to take foot and everyone jumped on board and then it became the standard that's what's gonna happen here. With a mobile payments that something something's gonna it's one of those is gonna become the in the profit of Apple expected over the meat -- just all track. It's actually really true because even though there aren't as many iphones out there as there are Android phones. -- FC chips are only gonna be built into one. Google phone so far in the galaxy nexus and and -- gonna take a longer time to roll out through all those different manufacturers though the balkanization. Could work against Android in terms of -- -- that standard. But if iPhone if Apple did it then it would be on the iPhone and ever -- hospital aren't. We're just coming up with predictions while we do prediction and taken and -- prediction -- wouldn't get. And I -- and -- if yes my next want to -- I predict that Netflix will make a major change and screwed up. -- -- -- -- -- -- Via the compete with -- -- Verizon's gonna come out the -- thing to -- -- video service on Verizon phones have been -- have to compete with that -- makes some -- change and everyone's gonna get past. Do you have a Netflix related prediction because I had -- relative. I think I said in an. Since we're on the theme. I said Denver Netflix is gonna get scooped up and acquired meet you but I've yet -- who was -- -- -- Verizon is gonna -- -- I did not who did you choose Amazon. Moon night I think Amazon buys Netflix and on it -- and that's that's a nice that's a nice on -- yeah I got to get right because. Remember when the rumors were going around September. And I was just like that -- -- and it it would it would and that was before Netflix screwed up and now there really cheap. Because -- -- -- president and it back down -- -- -- dollars and others from. -- -- Oh you mean the service yeah I wouldn't surprise of the stock went back down eight dollars probably -- company is cheaper too because the stock price has been so -- had a little bump on an unknown number -- there was -- Verizon rumors and. Earlier. -- the end of the year. So I were giggling because of dates are doing like sometimes if you're -- -- we're -- some time soon. Anyway it's yeah I think Amazon buys Netflix and then their dislike unstoppable. Yet. Is that you know what I think they're finding that the content deals are -- a lot longer than not it's tricky it's able it and you know when you don't have a library I mean it's kinda like Amazon's -- Netflix to streaming library is -- a great but it would also consolidate them for. Like you were -- -- where we're doing. Even -- in -- so my friends this past weekend. A lot of people general consumers are more and more unhappy with Netflix and people -- like whats so new about it. You know and they're losing their shine someone has to scoop -- -- And someone with some more leverage that might enable them to get better deals to the Netflix is -- doing. Agreed there and a hard place okay next prediction -- this one's semi Apple on -- litter you with. A couple Apple ones right now I think this 2000 told will be the last Mac Pro their power desktop that will see. -- because desktops are -- dying breed I think that -- transition over to a powerhouse iMac. Men and -- leveraged unbeatable as a connectivity but I think that Mac pros we're starting to definitely we've already talked about the post PC era but when a major company. Eliminates a desktop I think that's even a greater greater side. So I'm I'm wrong and there are now on out there tenable also mean he makes more sense facetime multiple users video chat integrated in all their I devices -- It'll just just instead of -- your desktop because still even -- -- video conferencing. With multiple people that's really the only place you can do it right now they've got a -- to mobile devices. Could not agree more -- I think shoot what's the -- has it but is still clinical. Yeah and UI beyond standard everyone's idea you know so they -- I think it okay I think I have an Apple early to -- -- get out let's hear it on the -- -- -- list. I think Apple will make it TV. But I think it's gonna flop. -- I use the same words and then later added -- but I said Apple have their first consumer product. Now will flop it -- blow us away. And I I do now wouldn't be their first consumer products aren't as a way but that's an election in like he's a member of the high fly -- a day I -- I -- -- like recent history -- -- only hits but. My main reasons that KTVs. -- it's not the same purchase as a phone or a tablet. The price point for someone to go -- -- Is a lot I still don't think people are comfortable now that the voice recognition technology -- Siri is the killer feature in the TV answers like an Afghan gas. It's not good enough yet. And -- I it. Now I think it's going to be just like is that too expensive I think it's also gonna be half its music don't think they're gonna produce their own TV -- -- it's gonna be an Apple branded you know it'll be an Apple branded Samsung and Apple branded old Taylor whenever. And then it won't do everything that people want to deal and notes as you -- and pampering -- Let's let's look at TVs right now if the killer feature is a media a web camera and Syrian. And I am and a lot of people this it was the year of the TV where low prices on LCD's and plasmas. People are gonna buy a TV every year right. And of this and this Apple TV was not gonna make people have bought new TVs the past three years the I want exactly because I think a lot of people did I mean people upgraded some people did upgrade for 3-D and then a ton of people have been -- TVs recently notably is that the -- -- -- and -- it's really. Gonna be a -- very hurt and I almost said they wouldn't enter in the market. But if I don't know I don't know that hey -- -- I'm not saying I wanted that -- like -- this -- more clinical I think they're well because I also because that the related predictions I think that when he told will be like a huge year for connected TV I think that is. Obviously. That's -- and -- hard -- -- -- the trend for television development is connected TV. So I think in their everybody's gonna wanna be playing in that space because you don't wanna. You -- -- get kicked out -- ecosystem you know. And there's connected TVs -- right now already you know I think last year. One of us are a couple of us did mention the connected TV didn't really necessarily take off people are buying connected TVs but they're not using them -- connected TVs yet spread to it's fullest. Men and Scotland now. As the Netflix and Amazon video on to -- Right in the price has it's -- -- -- -- and I don't know why it's so much easier than dislike literally changing input over to recruit but it is there it is like button. It's a button clicks bites you there's the there's a -- with a remote that has a Netflix button on that I mean come on. Mine doesn't have that it'll soon be called and conflicts but -- accept that Apple flex button. RIK Allen Steve yes okay so. This has to your program so I predicted rim will get rid of its QC EO structure. So yeah. Maxwell -- -- they'll stay there but they'll just get some new leadership India added I think they're gonna change leadership we have drunken leader we have drunken rim. Executives on airplanes don't think the this. Is -- -- dollars. I you know you might actually not only make -- agree with that. You're probably right because rim will probably not exist in 2002 that's what I should put an interesting and -- not -- -- yet that's they'll still be around but. Really -- But there's a -- and production actually it's a little out there -- I know I like now there's but I I predicted that Microsoft to acquire rim after their Nokia partnership has -- While because Nokia is not delivering. Not delivering -- all. Blackberry has a big enterprise install base and Microsoft wants in on that action to that you really love enterprise and I think that they they re branding re purpose that they put them though Windows Phone on their in the -- -- exchange services. And they they I'm not saying mainland -- at best you can do well that's that's. Into -- because one of my predictions and relationship to this whole mobile devices and Microsoft I wrote. This is kind of a condition -- and if windows eight is not successful Microsoft doesn't really gain any success in their mobile strategy. Steve -- will step down as Microsoft's. Totally. This is I feel that's a make it or break it for Microsoft now they've got a succeed. They've got at least show that they can make it in one of these the end. I don't wanna -- in new emerging market but to mimic and is something that -- -- if they don't make it here you gotta get rid of -- there's already been calls for his head. They've got to change that culture. I so maybe I even predicted that last year and that was kind of realized it didn't happen -- although. One of our predictions dovetails nicely with us. Which is that I actually do think that Windows Phone 7 is gonna have a huge year. Because I think Android in a related note Mandarin is gonna lose ground because of the fragmentation. The malware I think developers are gonna be fact because it's all such a mess and Google seem so half hearted about steam behind it. I mean if you can't -- them to get the flagship phone out the door. Within a reasonable time frame -- the same time frame as Europe. It's just. I don't think I think people -- gonna lose confidence in under an awareness and seven is gonna step right in because it's very usable very friendly. People you know then they're gonna have the more unified experience like Apple so it's not -- -- like. When I mean I like we've agreed we like what we've seen from Windows 7 so far the company's new policy -- I think I'm in it -- -- your announcement that's the Steve do you have any more perhaps we can make some up on the flat out even -- lab more iPhone rumors something like an and I predicted the iPhone 5 will have a built in HT projector. -- -- -- But he can't -- Pico projector inside iPhone 5 a day. Alan Seattle XTC and just like let's get crazy -- Qaeda is a -- as I write a predictions may be not so crazy but I do feel and believe. We'll see our first consumers no glasses 3-D TV for -- -- In 2012. Keyword is for sale for sale I think it's Cadillac -- We saw some last year I think we'll see some this year but actually put it on a shelf and see how it does. I'm gonna predict -- product at 2012 might be here where we see itself and -- I think intellectual property and copyright are going to -- to. Need to -- is do you lose you -- moods issues and when he -- huge I do think though that sofa. The stop online piracy act and protect IP. There will not survive in their current state I think I'll probably pass but they will be substantially modified mainly because they were so much. Really pretty remarkable outcry from people who really -- it showed that the Internet community was paying attention. But this issue is is gonna continue -- to get more and more intense and you can expect many more proposals that are justice. Kind of draconian and outrageous. It feels like because of the uproar. Those those bills and acts are just gonna get caught up and analysts in las in the -- -- -- of this be going back and forth and back and forth and it might take. A few years for us access in resolution problem may be you know you create the data I think timing or just I think -- -- those laws passes this year but in -- in substantially modified form but consumers will continue -- to lose out. Because of time that the over reaction to inflict apart into its -- it's huge it's it's a big deal. Degree boring in depressing and best. Steve income credit -- Kids -- they're crazy but again I found this out. This weekend of boxer all of boxer and -- yes yes. -- the coolest thing ever. Right so I predict that boxer is gonna revolutionize. Texting. And voice messaging and 2012 and everyone's going to be box during a real -- like -- -- -- -- young boxer -- hit me up on boxer that's hey ya maybe you want a box. Yeah I'll -- among boxers socks off and it into locking into walkie talkie yes yeah cool -- teen voice messaging and watch it like. The voice acts like a walkie talkie there's the tech -- there's images but just a fun. It finds out I was creating -- views about it and people are saying it's -- in between. It's like in between a text message and a voice yeah yeah yeah they're really just hit a button -- music. Like I call my wife and -- Heineman go to the grocery store teeny thing in the chilling boxers back -- I get a -- whatever. I don't have to wait for a -- and have to wait for an answering machine and have the text words and seeming as they don't want you talking. Like -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- like -- it's -- -- -- -- -- Diane and that is annoying is not happy but below that I mean -- they did on the in the yes -- we're toll pimping in box now you guys can't. These -- our show better live up to. Expectations boxer. Other -- funny because right and a battery has undermined is that voice recognition blows up. This is like the blows up to I think -- just became aware of it listeria -- uses an expert. In on them in until I was -- it will talk about are this is the year of blank later. It was the year and I just as good luck this year Lenovo is here okay don't tenants -- -- all right let's talk about them for instance I. -- -- -- -- -- -- This year 2012 will see the announcement of -- unit Xbox but no product until 2013. So we'll see the announcement -- first next gen console -- like it Sony will wait for another year. Okay and that's one and I'm -- in the -- family. To hand held gaming will be on its way out 2012 will show people. That hand held gaming is pretty much. This standalone hand held console is dead. People won't respond to it cameo on the phone we've already seen the signs of that from the 3-D SP SB is gonna attract. And I'm the perfect target market for these things and even I don't. See how makes sense -- -- -- things around via so I think it's finished two -- twelve will be kind of like that. It's gonna just let us know that it's it's on its -- -- phone. Moon. I didn't think -- on the opposite. -- -- -- That's right we're gonna -- -- has been set up and you can -- a little -- -- on that. On how to get around Nintendo three need to have the standard ES. Nintendo have tested against -- you're absolutely right that is really who has even heard of the PS -- after much mean. Or PSP -- whatever and it's out in a slice that out its overseas December risky but over here in the US has come -- like February. Prime -- -- and I think you will let people realize it's worth it's great it was you know it's two years late two years to. It's exactly anything post sort of new iPod Touch you know game center arrow or whatever -- too -- -- okay. Boom and glass half old news though I do think webos the gimmick comeback. I hope they open source there's there's reasons -- it's because they open source -- and it's like a Meg Whitman passion project maps -- like I am personally he. All of the people who are dealing with. The open source with that project report directly to make okay. I mean don't give Iran HP's board of -- gonna get tired of her like another three months or whatever -- like rich Playboy -- they can't make up their minds on anything. But I do think that open sourcing webos was always kind of the way to go with it get developers behind it. Especially because I think developers are gonna be defecting from Mandarin and from honeycomb I think that that in this is a huge opportunity for -- I like that that's -- that's good there's a real there's even executive backing behind -- -- red -- it. It's -- it's gonna move OK and not so big time my guest but still. Something -- hold true. Google+ will still be the redheaded stepchild and social networking. I was struggling with how does Google+ and yet that's the right way to put it still just -- like hanging out there still there. -- you weird it's there there. Kind of weird who plus can't IPO to do there and it's there and -- okay and even do you have anything else you wanna serve to us a -- well. I can get I I don't have -- -- predictions that we did say that we're gonna say what. This is going to be the year of and Molly are considered before but I'm gonna say that it's gonna be the year of the connected TV that everyone's gonna have connected TV. Touch screen TVs maybe not touch screen TVs but every let me connected on the TV if I'm almost positive that last year's that was my prediction. That a meteor connect yet it's on a yearly -- your two early you're too early. Atom to get like three trade UN zero media and then you and I -- doesn't grab whatever outlet -- Our rights. At press time we were awaiting to see whether in fact -- pattern -- folks had ever happened to -- I'm. About us that like full disclosure so my prediction was totally going to be that they confirmed it that they found a major physics -- -- -- so perhaps that will happen. We'll -- I think that hackers are gonna bring down the Internet some time. In 2012 and it will trigger massive 2012 hysteria and the start of probably several months of meters -- office area. And that these men hackers and act and how there's like for like a major major attack is -- your crazy boulder you think this actually in a real app I think. Connect and it could at all yet -- -- could happen but I'm -- Is this any more out there -- does that look -- it yeah -- out redundant I I really don't want their ensuing riots and -- -- -- -- -- Just imagine Internet on for a one day and no one day bank gain all that's -- but it could easily and -- this is you know like -- the die harder premise or whatever. And I think we're a little bit overdue for kind of almost like a terrorist attack on the Internet. It can definitely that's that's that's for nice. I think that up brain machine interfaces are going to let paralyzed people walk again and -- twelve -- May -- Asher and CE liberty. Start to get right people in only half as much robot as human death and then finally self driving cars are gonna hit the road by the end of the year -- -- I'm so why do you think about that I'm excitement that's a -- line at the -- -- okay -- -- wrap up with a few that I have left. I said it will see a Kindle phone in 2012 boom I don't -- I think that the stars will line. They're gonna probably release a larger tablet but by the end of 2012. Agreements. The -- -- also bombed this maybe not -- people may agree or disagree I feel. Like the total the total tablet computer sales like -- are dropping off. At the end of 2000 -- I really feel people start to figure this out and it's a unique use case scenario device. But I don't think we'll see I don't think the explosion in growth that people have been projecting. Is going to explode like. So my guesses it's gonna either plateau. Or drop off there'll be some sign of that sometime in 2000 and totally buy -- I think people are gonna go back to notebooks in the form of ultra portables I agree yes. Good call thanks. Keep -- -- that it carried to Sony and is so. -- -- -- I wanna make up another -- just for the -- by the time we get -- there is a K Activision is officially here of this is to live here and now I feel the pressure to them. So many -- -- you know it just -- not a day you start. -- I kind of already gave it away but I feel like 2012. Will be the year voice recognition we've already -- we -- we seen an Android for years but we're talking about the point in time where -- starts -- a little crazy. And you see on every device you can imagine I also do you feel it will get a lot better. But the time is right we sort of see major companies implement and acquire voice technology companies I believe. I hope I'm not wrong in saying this -- I swear like Amazon acquired someone like that recently to. I could be awful and I know another major company and I can be a matter operate -- looked it up but I think that 2012 will be voice recognition. They did Amazon -- -- and start up thank you yeah okay it's I feel like I do you pay -- -- It's got -- sometimes I -- I -- I can totally see that. Well actually my kind of goes on in away with that because I think that point while among other things like how -- can be the year of secures security and data. I think -- -- going to be the year Amazon. Having Amazon is gonna rush into any -- like they are just they've been -- -- all and I think they're they're gonna continued to. Absolutely dominant I'm not worried about the current -- Kindle fire was caused him remember the original Kindle they came out. That thing was that -- heard. As all highlighted commodore 64 it did it and if you got anywhere near you actually turn the page it lately that I -- -- off all. And the Kindle fire is already ahead of the game better than that and the -- got some software it changes that are fixing problems like its. That's gonna be -- and I think they're getting. Continue to just like growing dominance and be by the end of the year more important and you know FaceBook note given Apple -- -- for -- only tell you put that -- of the year of Amazon. -- -- -- Not gonna demand that a -- can't predict that in Molly easier if Amazon that Amazon will start paying taxes on -- to California. And it. So really -- but you'd like you said early your year of is -- year of the connected TV yes yes definitely connected TV it's gonna be consuming all their TV shows movies you connect -- televisions. And it's gonna have really -- all the cable company's -- time. -- numbers have become -- they're gonna do whatever they can to not let it hurt them yet as we've seen yet they definite plan that's going to be that -- to be one heck of a battle. It's gonna be pretty fun to -- actually because. One of my predictions was almost. I almost said that Amazon -- -- June because of the -- just think like there's so much movement in that area. What if they scooped -- both. No way. It -- -- -- do you think let's just make for funny thing is gonna make the biggest kind of -- the move next year. Whether it's for good or bad. -- Tears -- Probably Verizon. There. Online video streaming and there are no NFC in all the stuff -- -- that galaxy nexus phone all the issues after. I think -- and I have no Intel to say otherwise but. I'm just to throw it out there. I think FaceBook is gonna have the whole -- move for good or for -- next year. Just aren't really just we're just we're just having fun and a I don't wanna say Amazon I don't -- -- -- -- that's -- -- -- -- I was gonna say AT&T and -- -- and I think they're gonna be like freaking out. After that T-Mobile thing falls apart. And -- looking for stating -- -- you name something to do but I don't think they mean they should just hunker down. Be cool but I don't think -- use -- -- and -- -- -- -- -- That's okay routers and then they did the best part is that like board is six months from now. Everything we said will be totally obsolete and irrelevant everytime I look back -- he -- them and why even I -- webos. My dad though we did remember after we did our predictions alas it we be like remember predicted that. Toll verdict that's actually how mr. tong is was born it is and what I understand when the singularity occurs. You dollar going to be like Molly said so. That this was the year for the Cingular 2012 -- -- and -- more robot and human. Strike on -- lightning. The day and -- happy new -- every alignment we will see you. -- -- We will be back -- the January award as the second that January 5 with their regular episode before we head to Las Vegas for CES. -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --