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Analysts anxious about Motorola''s outlook

2 min read
Slumping handset sales, semiconductor weakness, and a double-shot of warnings give analysts little to cheer about, ahead of Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) fourth quarter earnings.

Motorola will release its financial results after market close Wednesday. The wireless phone maker, which twice warned for the quarter, is now expected to report reduced earnings of 15 cents a share after the closing bell, down from 26 cents a year earlier, according to earnings tracking firm First Call Corp. Analysts originally forecast a profit of 37 cents a share. Shares closed yesterday's session down 1.06 to 20.69.

For analysts, there seems little reason to expect the company to release any positive news.

In a research note, Wit SoundView analyst Matt Hoffman said that the focus of the earnings release would be on Motorola's 2001 outlook, as the company currently has no official guidance for that period. Although he has a "buy" rating on the company's stock, Hoffman said he is only recommending the stock to the "longest of long-term investors," who are willing to wait out the current end-market weakness.

Another key topic will be Motorola's guidance for each half of 2001. In general, analysts are expecting a rough first half of 2001 with hopes of a rebound in the second half. Wall Street will also be listening closely to gauge where Motorola stands with its products.

"The call will be extremely important as we seek to establish whether Motorola is not competitive in a healthy market, or is losing share in an unhealthy one," Hoffman wrote.

One of Hoffman's questions became clearer after Tuesday's announcement from competitor Nokia (NYSE: NOK). The mobile phone giant was hit hard yesterday after releasing sales figures that were well short of analyst estimates. The company blamed a softening handset market.

Regarding Motorola's mobile infrastructure and broadband businesses, Hoffman said he expects both segments to continue to be profitable, but warned that any weakness in either sector would have profoundly negative implications for the stock.

The analyst also highlighted previously announced management changes at Motorola as possible issues to watch. According to Hoffman, key financing decisions may be slower at the company than at competitors Ericsson and Nokia.

Analyst Vivian Mamelak at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder opined in a research note that Motorola's outlook isn't going to be pretty.

Motorola guidance's of handset sales of 525 million to 575 million for 2001 will be revised, the analyst said, adding that even the low end of this range may be aggressive for 2001. The company's semiconductor growth numbers should also be cut, Mamelak said.

• UPDATE: Nokia slumps 14 percent on growth expectations
• THE WEEK AHEAD: Yahoo!, Motorola lead earnings parade
• Motrola issues profit warning, shares shrink
• Motorola lowers guidance for 2000, 2001 >