The next wave in fast Net access

The fight over cable open access may subside as a new wave of broadband technology is unleashed.

The development of new high-speed conduits for Internet access may mute Internet service providers' call for access to cable wires, one of the main broadband technologies available today. Federal regulators, ultimately responsible for refereeing the open-access battle, are pushing to see as many broadband options as possible enter the market.

"If we had four or five broadband pipes into every home in America, we wouldn't be having this [open-access] discussion," FCC chairman William Kennard told CNET News.com in a recent interview. "That's where we need to go as a country."

Those pipes are being forged in labs and trial projects around the world. From direct fiber-optic cable connections to satellite transmissions, new technologies already promise to outpace even the fastest of today's high-speed Net connections.

Cable to the curb
A few places in the world are well ahead of the broadband curve, already bringing high-speed fiber-optic cable as close to doorsteps as possible.

Trial projects in Texas and elsewhere around the country are using "fiber to the curb" to give households network access rates of up to 100 megabits per second (mbps), or more than 1,700 times the speed of the fastest dial-up modem.

BellSouth is also rolling out its own trial program later this year, outfitting about 400 homes with fiber connections able to handle video, voice, and data services. The lines are more expensive to install, but BellSouth has predicted that prices will come down to rival copper-based DSL in a few years after demand increases.

"It's not quite as far off as many people think," said Kevin Werbach, managing editor of Esther Dyson's Release 1.0 technology newsletter and former Federal Communications Commission counsel for new technology policy. "The cost curves on fiber have been dropping rapidly."

A wireless world
Researchers are also looking at ways of boosting the data rate capabilities of wireless and satellite transmissions.

The first of the broadband wireless options to reach the mass market will likely come from one of the big three long distance companies, all of which are betting on different fixed wireless technologies to compete with cable.

Sprint and MCI WorldCom each have made a mad dash to buy "wireless cable" firms that provide cable programming and broadband data connections to a small number of subscribers around the country.

Although some analysts are skeptical that the technology won't catch on, Sprint and MCI WorldCom plan to invest significant capital to upgrade the networks for broadband services. Sprint has already announced it will introduce the fixed wireless cable service to some consumers this fall as part of its Integrated On-Demand Network, or ION.

From zero to gigabit speeds
1962	First analog modems deliver data at 300 bits per second (bps)
1970s	1,200 bps analog modems introduced
1978	Phone companies unveil Digital Data Service (DDS), a dedicated connection boasting speeds of about 56 kbps (kilobits per second)
1982	2,400 bps analog modems introduced
1983	Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) released, boasts speeds of 128 kbps
1984	T1 lines are commercially deployed, with speeds capable of 1.5 mbps (megabits per second)
1984	9,600 bps analog modems introduced
1986	ISDN connections enjoy widespread deployment
1990	14.4 kbps analog modems introduced
1991	Baby Bells offer Switched 56, a "poor man's ISDN" capable of 56 kbps
1992	28.8 kbps analog modems introduced
1993	First trials of asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) offer speeds of up to 1 mbps
1994	First cable modems tested in the United States and in Canada
1994	33.6 kbps analog modems introduced
1995	Cable modems introduced on a limited commercial basis, with varying speeds of 1 mbps to 3 mbps
1996	ADSL deployed commerically with download speeds of 7.1 mbps
1998	56 kbps analog modems made available following a standards fight Cable modems and xDSL deployed in the mainstream
Sources: "Residential Broadband" author Kim Maxwell, ADSL Forum, Dataquest, Intel

For its part, AT&T is testing a different kind of fixed wireless technology in what it has dubbed "Project Angel," slated for areas where its cable network doesn't reach. But this version of wireless access supports connections only about as fast as an ISDN line, according to analysts.

Farther into the future is an entirely new wireless technology that will shoot data encoded on laser beams in the air, without having to pass though fiber-optic cable. This technology, pioneered by Lucent Technologies, can carry 10 gigabits per second up to five kilometers and is expected to be available by next summer.

Perhaps more promising are wireless networks created by newcomers like Teligent, which markets its broadband data and voice systems to small businesses. AT&T-owned Liberty Media took a 41 percent stake in Teligent's parent company early in June, leading to speculation that its services might one day be folded into AT&T's broadband empire.

Although two-way satellite data transmissions won't be ready for a few years, analysts say, its prospects brightened following America Online's investment in Hughes Electronics' DirecTV and DirecPC systems.

Satellite services are about three times faster than an ISDN line yet require a telephone connection to upload data. Yet a handful of more powerful satellite data services are on the horizon.

Lockheed Martin intends to offer a service called Astrolink by 2001, while Teledesic is in a venture involving mobile phone magnate Craig McCaw, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates, Motorola, and Boeing. Hughes Network Systems is planning a satellite service called Spaceway, Alcatel plans to offer a service called SkyBridge, and Loral Space & Communications now offers limited data services over its CyberStar network.

Most of these offerings are about three to seven years from the market, according to various estimates, but the wait may be worth it--satellites are capable of delivering data at speeds of up to 45 mbps--about 30 times faster than a T1 line.

Consumers who are used to cable and telephone services may be a tough sell for these new high-speed services. But they do have the advantage of being relatively easy to install and upgrade compared to other broadband options, analysts note.

"The winds are very favorable for satellite," said Richard Doherty, director of research for the Envisioneering Group, a Seaford, New York-based technology testing and market research firm. "With cable you have to rip apart stucco and concrete walls."

The future
Engineers are also taking their chances with more creative broadband ideas, noted MCI WorldCom executive and Internet pioneer Vint Cerf. Proposals so far range from power companies providing data services, to fleets of blimps beaming high-speed data to users on the ground.

"There are a lot of things in the works," Cerf said. "There are a lot of ideas out there."

To be sure, cable and DSL are still just barely beginning to make their mark. Proponents of these technologies note that they are still relatively new, and have considerable time to improve before they are replaced with a newer broadband technology.

"At least in terms of DSL, I think there are significantly more breakthroughs to be made," said Catherine Hapka, CEO of Rhythms NetConnections, one of the leading small-business DSL providers. "We're just at the beginning of seeing what the various permutations are." 

Go to: High-speed pipe dreams?