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More economists and financial experts in the US are forecasting a recession, generally marked by two consecutive quarters where there's a significant slowdown in economic activity.
Why it matters
Previous recessions have all seen pervasive layoffs, higher costs of borrowing and a tumultuous stock market.
Focus on what you can control, gather facts and make moves to protect your finances.
The state of the economy is the worry of the day.and shows no signs of stopping, despite three hikes from the Federal reserve earlier this year. And, with more rate increases to come -- the next as early as this month -- many worry the Fed's attempts to slow economic growth could push us into a .
Since the Great Depression, the US has had about a dozen economic setback periods lasting anywhere from a few months to over a year. In some ways, there's The Psychology of Money, may have said it best when he tweeted in April: "We're definitely heading toward a recession. The only thing that's uncertain is the timing, location, duration, magnitude and policy response.": Economies are cyclical, with upswings and downturns. We can't predict what will happen in advance, and sometimes we can't even tell what's happening while we're in the middle of it. Morgan Housel, author of
Attempting to figure out recession specifics is a guessing game. Anyone who tells you different is likely trying to sell you something. The best we can do right now is draw on history to build context, get more proactive about theand resist the urge to panic. This includes reviewing what happened in previous recessions and taking a closer look at our financial goals to see what levers to pull to stay on track.
Here are eight specific steps you can take toand resilience in a turbulent economy.
1. Plan more, panic less
The silver lining to current recession predictions is that they're still only forecasts. There is time to assemble a plan without the real pressures and challenges that come with being in the thick of an economic slowdown. Over the next couple of months, review your financial plan and map out some worst-case scenarios when your adrenaline isn't running high.
Some questions to consider: If you did lose your job later this year or in early 2023, what would be your plan? How can you fortify your finances now to weather a layoff? (Keep reading for related advice.)
2. Bulk up your cash reserves
A key to navigating a recession relatively unscathed is having cash in the bank. The steep 10% unemployment rate during the Great Recession in 2009 taught us this. On average, it took eight to nine months for those affected to land on their feet. Those fortunate to have robust emergency accounts were able to continue paying their housing costs and buy time to figure out next steps with less stress.
Consider retooling your budget to allocate more into savings now to hit closer to the recommended six- to nine-month rainy day reserve. It may make sense to unplug from recurring subscriptions, but a better strategy that won't feel as depriving may be to call billers (from utility companies to cable to) and ask for discounts and promotions. Speak specifically with customer retention departments to see what offers they can extend to keep you from canceling your plans.
3. Seek a second income stream
Web searches for "side hustles" are always popular, but especially now, as many look to diversify income streams in the run up to a potential recession. Just like it helps to diversify investments,can reduce the income volatility that arrives with job loss. For inspiration on easy, low-lift side hustles that you might be able to do from home, check out .
4. Resist impulsive investing moves
It's hard not to beafter all the recent red arrows in the stock market. If you have more than 10 or 15 years until retirement, history proves it's better to stick with the market ups and downs. According to Fidelity, those who stayed invested in target-date funds, which include mutual funds and ETFs commonly tied to a retirement date, during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis had higher account balances by 2011 than those who reduced or halted their contributions.
If you have yet to sign up for automatic rebalancing, definitely look into this with your portfolio manager or online broker. This feature can ensure that your instruments remain properly weighted and aligned with your risk tolerance and investment goals, even as the market swings.
5. Lock interest rates now
As the policy makerslevels, interest rates will increase. This potentially spells bad news for anyone with an adjustable-rate loan. It's also a challenge for those .
While federal student loan borrowers don't have to worry about their rates going up, those with privatemay want to look into consolidating or refinancing options through an existing lender or other banks, such as SoFi, that could consolidate the debt into one fixed-rate loan. This will prevent your monthly payments from increasing unpredictably when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again this year, as expected.
6. Protect your credit score
Borrowers may have a tougher time accessing credit in recessions, as interest rates jump and banks enforce stricter lending rules. To qualify for the best loan terms and rates, AnnualCreditReport.com.in the 700s or higher. You can typically check your credit score for free through your existing bank or lender, and you can also receive from each of the three main credit bureaus through the end of the year from
To improve your credit score, work towards, review and that may be on your credit report or consider consolidating high-interest credit card debt into a or .
7. Press pause on buying a home
It's already awith few homes to go around. If are adding more pressure to your ability to buy a home within budget, consider renting for a little longer. If you're also worried about your job security in a potential recession, then that's even more reason to take pause. Leasing isn't cheap at the moment, but it can afford you more flexibility and mobility. Without the need to park cash for a down payment and closing costs, renting can also keep you more liquid during a potentially challenging economy.
8. Take care of your valuables
The advice that was born out of the sky-high inflation period in the late 1970s still applies now: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
With, many of us face high prices and delays in acquiring new cars, tech products, furniture, home materials and even contact lenses. This includes replacement parts, too. If a product comes with a free warranty, be sure to sign up. And if it's a nominal fee to extend the insurance, it may be worth it during a time when prices are on the rise.
For example, my car has been in the repair shop for over three months, waiting for parts to arrive from overseas. So, in addition to paying my monthly car payment, I have a rental car fee that's adding up. If nothing else, I'll be heading into a possible recession a more cautious driver.