Just because Twitter is struggling to gain massive profits doesn't mean that it can't help people make money.
The brevity of Twitter lets people publish whatever crosses their minds at the moment, and then send it into the endless ether of fading thoughts. But some tweets are actually useful, especially if you're interested in trading in currency markets.
A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research looked at 633 days of tweets about the euro/dollar exchange rate, and gauged how profitable it was to trade based off tweets. The researchers, Vahid Gholampour and Eric van Wincoop, looked at 268,770 tweets mentioning "EURUSD" between October 9, 2013 and March 11, 2016.
It was about 578 tweets a day, but researchers narrowed it down to 27,557 tweets with opinions about the exchange rate, or about 43 tweets a day. Only 8.5 percent of all the tweets mentioning "EURUSD" were actually useful for the study.
Using word analysis, the researchers dug into the tweets and separated the opinions into positive, negative and neutral outlooks for the exchange rate. Tweets that had "higher high" with "EURUSD" also in the tweet were labeled as positive, while tweets with "further" and "fall" indicated negative opinions.
With an average of 4.4 tweets a day from 6,236 accounts, the study estimated a way to profit off the market only using experts on Twitter. Gholampour and van Wincoop created the "Twitter Sentiment Index," to help calculate the returns on investment based off tweets.
They split the tweets into two groups: users with more than 500 followers and users with less than 500 followers. The study found that financial advice from users with more followers tended to provide higher rewards.
"It confirms the idea that Twitter is a good source of private information," van Wincoop told Bloomberg.
While the "EURUSD" tweets can be helpful if you're looking to make profits, don't expect to be able to just start following the right people and getting rich quick. Looking at the results for "EURUSD" on Twitter, it's a maze to navigate through all the charts and hot takes on where the exchange rate is heading.
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