Microsoft expects to lose margins as "cloud" competitors start to eat away at its core businesses.
Kudos to Microsoft for calling out the obvious. But the software maker still has a lot to learn, if it thinks it can charge more under its own cloud model because "the customer will pay Microsoft a larger fee, since Microsoft also runs and maintains all the hardware," as Nick Carr notes:
Capossela's assumption that Microsoft will be able to charge companies more under the cloud model seems optimistic, given the different economics of providing software as a Web service and the aggressive pricing strategies of cloud pioneers like Google, Zoho, and Amazon.
Put more bluntly, there's not a chance in Hades that Microsoft will be able to charge more for its cloud-based offerings--not when its competitors are using the cloud to pummel its desktop and server-based offerings. This is something that Microsoft (and everyone else) is simply going to have to get used to. The go-go days of outrageous software margins are over. Done.
Open source and the cloud (or software as a service, if you like) are still plenty profitable, but the software model for writing once, then digitally copying and charging everywhere is out the window.
Those who desire outsize margins, as Google still gets, need to. Pure software businesses will be less profitable, going forward, because the software industry has matured and will increasingly look like other industries that depend primarily on service.
Is this cause for mourning? Of course not. It's just what has always happened to technology-driven industries. Anyone wanting to see where software is going needs only to study the railroad. Or, in Google's case, the billboards along the side of the road. ;-)
Open-source and cloud-based computing are focusing the software industry on customers and service thereof, not on software. It is a highly profitable future, but perhaps not as profitable as it has been.
That's not a bad thing. It is, in fact, a very good thing for customers, who get more value and pay less for it.