It's starting already. Actually, "it" has been in play for several years, as proprietary software vendors have been forced tothat their software hardly justifies.
CMS Watch reports on a deal it saw recently wherein the proprietary vendor staged a "fire sale" of its software while keeping maintenance prices high. Indeed, it's arguably the case that the only value proprietary license fees provide anymore is .
The 75% license fee reduction smacks a bit of desperation, although note that Vendor Y does not so heavily discount its ever-beloved maintenance.
Every now and then, an established vendor panics (this time in the face of a looming recession?), and cuts prices in an attempt to go down-market, even though the tool itself is far from a commodity. They usually regret it. In any event, you the customer will still pay dearly for its customization.
Ah, the sweet smell of proprietary panic. We open-source vendors are ecstatic to help stoke the fire of your panic, because either way we'll help customers through lower prices alone (if they stay with you, poor souls) or lower prices and more flexibility (if they go with us).
As near as I can tell, there's only one loser in the equation. That would be the proprietary vendor. My heart bleeds for you.