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Polls show 3 percent (or 10 percent or 30 percent) will buy Apple Watch

Technically Incorrect: Now that Apple has presented its watch, the largest question emerges: how many people will buy it. Can anyone know?

Technically Incorrect offers a slightly twisted take on the tech that's taken over our lives.


I love it. I love it. I love it not. I love it. CNET

I love a good poll.

I think of each one as the lovechild of Nate Silver and Karl Rove: rational, troubled and fundamentally schizophrenic.

So after Apple unveiled its alleged masterpiece of a timepiece, I waited for the pollsters to unsheathe their social thermometers and tell us how hot the humans are for the new gadget.

I rumbled an Adobe study, performed on Tuesday. This was deeply committed to the notion that 27 percent of Americans were "very likely" to buy an Apple Watch. Did they all live in Cupertino? Were they all at the heart of nerdification?

I waited, though, wondering whether this was merely the overnight excitement of the inebriated.

The next poll I noticed was performed by Reuters. This is a rolling five-day poll. As I write, this has a slightly less rosy (and perhaps more realistic) notion of how many might be seduced by a digital Mickey Mouse face and the hope that their watch will calm them down when their blood pressure gets too high.

This poll offers that 69.6 percent are either "not at all interested" or "not very interested." As to those who are "very interested," that figure stands at 9.7 percent. A tinge of hope is offered by the Mini-Mice who say they are "somewhat interested." Some 15.2 percent declare that their interest is lit by a somewatt bulb.

Then my e-mail groaned beneath the somber weight of a poll performed by Survata, a company that just polls and keeps on polling.

This asked 1,000 people between March 11 and 12 to reveal their true purchasing intent with respect to the Apple Watch.

A piffling 3 percent declared they were "highly likely to buy." (I do love how each research company has its own phrases to describe purchasing excitement.)

A fulsomely negative 77 percent in this poll insisted they were "unlikely to buy."

What do all these polls prove? Absolutely nothing. However, if you'd like me to play along, I'll suggest that people don't yet know how this thing will feel on their wrists nor how easy it will be to navigate.

Some early reviewers -- those who were given a five-minute speed-date with the thing -- suggested that it didn't have Apple's usual simplicity. All the more reason, perhaps, why the boisterous, cacophonous Apple store isn't the best place to try it on.

The advertising will, no doubt -- as it already has -- reflect a sense of fashionable style and deep white space.

But style and simplicity are often dizygotic twins. So it'll only be when first-hand emotions begin to wonder about the second-hand and everything that lives beneath it that the Apple Watch will truly tick people's emotional boxes (or not.)

Respondents can say anything they like in polls. But if there's one thing we know about every human being on Earth, what they say and what they do are distant cousins at best.