HSPA to dominate mobile broadband?

A report by analyst firm Juniper Research predicts that 70 percent of mobile-broadband subscribers will use the souped-up version of 3G by 2012. Total mobile-broadband subscribers will number 1.2 billion by then, it said--equivalent to nearly one in three mobile subscribers worldwide.

HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) delivers mobile-broadband speeds in excess of 500 kilobits per second and up to several megabits per second. There are currently about 5 million HSPA subscribers worldwide, according to UMTS Forum, a 3G advocate.

Howard Wilcox, an analyst at Juniper Research and the author of a report called Mobile Broadband Markets: WiMax, EV-DO, HSPA & Beyond, 2007-2012, said takeoff of the mobile-broadband technology will depend on the success of HSPA-enabled hardware.

"If you take the iPod as an example, before the iPod existed, not many people would have probably imagined that you could have such a device with its capabilities, but right now, that's an extremely popular device--everyone seems to have one," Wilcox said. "It's having that kind of innovation and attractiveness to particular end users which I think is key for mobile broadband."

There are currently 128 HSDPA-enabled devices--which provide data downlink speeds 5 to 10 times faster than those of standard 3GSM (WCDMA) wireless devices--according to the GSM Association. That figure includes 46 handsets, 32 data cards, 30 laptops and one MP3 player.

HSPA has the edge over mobile WiMax, as it is "here and now," according to Wilcox. "It is out there, it's available and it is also a software upgrade from the existing 3G/GSM networks, whereas WiMax will take longer to establish itself because WiMax is essentially a new network build," he said.

Wilcox said mobile WiMax is likely to net "a single-digit percent proportion of the global mobile-broadband subscriber base by 2012," with EV-DO (A and B) being the next most prolific technology after HSPA, driven by markets in the Americas and the Far East.

Juniper Research said demand for mobile broadband will primarily be driven by North America and Western Europe, with China and the Far East also playing a part.

Mobile-broadband subscriber numbers are likely to surge as older hardware in developing countries is replaced by newer, broadband-enabled technology, Wilcox said.

"In a few years' time, (mobile-broadband capability in mobile devices will) become a given and, therefore, people who previously had no mobile capability will have this almost whether they like it or not," Wilcox said.

A recent report by Senza Fili Consulting predicted that the combined total of fixed, mobile and fixed, and mobile-WiMax subscribers will reach 54 million by 2012.

Natasha Lomas of Silicon.com reported from London.