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Has Blu-ray moved from early-adopter to early-majority phase?

New research from UK-based Futuresource Consulting suggests Blu-ray has momentum and is set to move from early adopter to early majority phase with 80 million disc sales forecast for the U.S. in 2009.


Just got a press release from UK-based Futuresource Consulting that claims, "Consumers are on target to buy in excess of 100 million Blu-ray discs (BD) across the USA, Western Europe and Japan this year, with sales of High Definition capable LCD and plasma TVs and continued dramatic reductions in BD player prices continuing to fuel interest in packaged HD content despite the economic downturn."

Mai Hoang, Senior Market Analyst at Futuresource Consulting says that, "In the USA, BD has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority, with the format gaining real traction in the marketplace." She adds that last year in the US alone, BD video retail sales increased 320 percent to 24 million units and the momentum would continue in 2009, with over 80 million disc sales forecast.

If you look at the included graph, Futuresource is also predicting that Blu-ray and DVD will be even by 2012--each with 50% of the market (in the U.S. anyway). I can't vouch for the accuracy of the research, but it doesn't seem too out of whack with what other market analysts have been saying. And on a more anecdotal level, we're seeing a lot of interest in Blu-ray players here at CNET--even in this down economy.

Who agrees or disagrees with this analysis?