This just in from Palamida: roughly 50 percent of active projects licensed under the GPL are now GPLv3. In just one month. That's huge.
How does Palamida reach this number? Keeping in mind that the total number of projects on Sourceforge is actually poor context to determine the number of useful, living projects that you or I care about:
Total repository based OSS community: 145910 (Sourceforge total divided by 70 percent (which helps to whittle down the number of active projects on Sourceforge)
Estimated Total active Projects: 21,886 (total * 15 percent)
Estimated total GPLv3 conversion, including "or later": 13,078 (total active, times 77 percent GPL and 6 percent LGPL, times 72 percent estimated conversion rate)
Estimated current "or later" impact: 9,082 (50 percent of GPL)
Which puts us very close to the 4,959 projects that are now listed as "GPLv2 or later" on Sourceforge. I think that's pretty impressive. Whether it's cause for celebration, repentance, or depression depends on your personal perspective. But it's impressive, regardless.
UPDATE: It's important to note that neither I nor Palamida take the "GPLv2 or later" to be explicit adoption of GPLv3. Palamida includes this number in its reports primarily to showcase the community's pre-existing support for and trust in the Free Software Foundation. In other words, they were ready to embrace whatever came post-GPLv2 because of the trust engendered by the FSF up to GPLv2. That phrase does not move a project to v3, but it does allow downstream parties to license their derivative works under GPLv3. So, it's half-way adoption with a hearty dose of trust in the FSF. I think that's significant.