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BlackBerry to go private at $9 per share? Not so fast

The buyout offer floated might be replaced with a deal that could come in around $7 per share, according to some analysts.

The BlackBerry Q10.
The BlackBerry Q10. Sarah Tew/CNET

Fairfax Financial might not take BlackBerry private for $9 per share after all.

Analysts speaking to All Things Digital in interviews published on Tuesday said that the chance of BlackBerry going private for $9 a share -- or $4.7 billion -- seems unlikely. In fact, Fairfax Financial could come in as low as $5 per share.

"I would think Fairfax would want a lower bid if they're the only one at the table looking to buy it," Ironfire Capital founder Eric Jackson told All Things Digital. "After seeing their earnings, I think a price between $5 and $7 is more likely than $9."

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said the bid could be revised to around $7 per share.

Fairfax announced plans to bring BlackBerry private last month. The company's CEO, Prem Watsa, indicated that Fairfax Financial would be willing to pay $9 per share for the roughly 90 percent of outstanding stock his company didn't already own. The total deal would be valued at $4.7 billion.

Despite the offer, Fairfax opened the door to revise its deal, pending due diligence. In the meantime, BlackBerry can seek other offers. It's unlikely, however, that the company will find another suitor anytime soon.

It's even less likely when one considers BlackBerry's fiscal second-quarter loss of nearly $1 billion. The company's revenue fell 45 percent to $1.57 billion during the period.

BlackBerry shares are trading at nearly $8 per share as of this writing. Fairfax is expected to come back with its final offer in the next several weeks.