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Apple TV predictions all over the map: Now 2015 or later

There's plenty of chatter about a future Apple TV from analysts. Problem is, nobody can agree on a time frame.

Brooke Crothers Former CNET contributor
Brooke Crothers writes about mobile computer systems, including laptops, tablets, smartphones: how they define the computing experience and the hardware that makes them tick. He has served as an editor at large at CNET News and a contributing reporter to The New York Times' Bits and Technology sections. His interest in things small began when living in Tokyo in a very small apartment for a very long time.
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Brooke Crothers
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Forecasting when the Apple TV will arrive has become a sport. Now one analyst is even saying 2015 -- or later.

Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities, via 9to5Mac, said he believes an Apple TV -- a real TV and not the set-top box variety -- won't arrive until 2015 or 2016.

And he cites some of the same reasons that NPD DisplaySearch cited earlier this week. That is, Apple TV sales will be small unless Apple can find a way to integrate new TV services and content.

He did mention, however, that an updated Apple TV (the set-top box) should arrive in 2014 running Apple's new A7 processor.

But, wait, there's still hope for a real TV next year. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, speaking at a Business Insider conference, claimed it's coming in 2014.

He cited sources in the supply chain of manufacturers, which, he claimed, have been testing out components for a big screen TV.

Maybe consumers should just bet on an update to a set-top box for now. That seems to be a pretty sure thing at least.