Calling it the iPod of the book business, CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney says the Kindle e-book reader will generate three-quarters of a billion dollars for Amazon.com in less than two years.
That should account for up to 3 percent of Amazon's business. See his chart and reasoning here.
His calculations assume that unit sales will grow from 189,000 by the end of this year to 2.2 million units in just two years. By then he assumes the price of the device will be just below $300. Mahaney also points out that Amazon does have the largest selection of e-book content.
Sure, Amazon has the e-book/e-book reader synergy going on, but still, his projections seem more than a little optimistic.
Besides the fact that the design leaves more than a bit to be desired, and it's expensive ($399 currently), his reasoning assumes people will completely change their reading habits, and that they'll be up for buying a separate device to do it.
More people would likely be onboard with the concept if it were rolled into their current device of choice, like a portable music player or smartphone with a decent-size screen.