A grassroots battle

Lights go out. Heat shuts off. Water runs dry. Phones are dead. Chaos ensues.

That is just one apocalyptic scenario feared to unfold when the clock strikes midnight on the eve of the millennium, the time a global computer problem could unleash a disastrous domino effect taking with it all of life's modern conveniences. Or maybe not.

The public and private sectors are scrambling to test systems and to eradicate the so-called Y2K problem and any subsequent disruptions, but sometimes they aren't exactly forthcoming about their progress out of fear for litigation and other reasons. These holes in communication only deepen the uncertainty about the severity of history's worst computer bug.

So as 2000 draws near, communities are starting to grasp the fact that they can't entirely depend on outside help to prepare them for a potential emergency. Instead, people have to do something that has been out of fashion for awhile: getting acquainted with the folks next door.

"In any kind of a bad scenario, which is widespread enough that the government couldn't immediately respond, we're going to have to work together. And that means getting to know your neighbors," said John Steiner, cofounder of the Boulder, Colorado-based Year 2000 Community Preparation Group (BCY2K).

Steiner isn't talking about carpooling when everyone heads for the hills. Rather, groups like the one in Boulder want people to throw a Y2K block party to strategize how they can combine resources and ensure the safety of members of their community should the technological glitch cut off basic necessities.

The Y2K problem is expected to strike computers that are programmed to register only the last two digits of the year, meaning that "2000" may be read as "1900." Flaw software and chips could be embedded in everything from elevators to emergency 911 systems and gas pumps.

Bill Grey on local planning in Santa Rosa, California. (CNET TV video) 944K

But localities may not be ready by next year. In November, the National Association of Counties surveyed 500 counties representing 46 states and found that only half had a countywide plan to address the Y2K issue. Of those, just 22 percent had set up a contingency plan to deal with problems resulting from the millennium bug.

Indications like these are one reason that hundreds of people already have attended BCY2K's public meetings to learn about the problem. Utility officials and city leaders have been on hand to answer questions about Y2K readiness in their area and to talk about contingency planning. The group also has connected with locals who can help, such as farmers who offered advice about how to grow one's own food.

The goal is to inspire neighbors to hold a series of meetings to educate each other about the dormant problem, discuss possible disruptions, assess what they can bring to the table in an emergency, and map a battle plan.

BCY2K has laid out how this can be done--from breaking the ice with neighbors to collecting supplies--in the Utne Reader's Y2K Citizens Action Guide, which includes short articles on how to prepare for the problem.

For example, someone on a block might be an electrician or doctor--good people to have around during a Y2K-related emergency. Also, BCY2K says elderly and disabled people in the area should be identified as they may need special assistance. Wood-burning stoves and properly installed generators are among the resources neighbors can share. Stockpiling food, medicine, candles, flashlights, batteries, fire wood, and water are other tasks that can be divvied up.

"If you're really afraid or feeling overwhelmed, you can't be effective," Steiner said. "It is hard to get people revved up to work on the unknown, and everybody is busy as hell. But you can do a lot more in a group."

In a worst-case scenario, the Y2K problem could effect personal safety in a number of ways. Looting could occur or there is a chance that embedded chips in a prison security system, for example, could go awry. And even if one locale is prepared others may not be, making it hard to isolate both minor disruptions and severe disorder.

"Some companies and institutions are well along, but because the country's power supply is interconnected, they still have the potential of getting bit by the millennium bug because an outside vendor or company they interconnect with is not [Y2K-compliant]," said Rick Cowles, who has testified on the issue before the House subcommittee on technology and is the author of Electric Utilities and Y2K.

"Everybody has their own threshold of pain, so to speak," he added. "It all comes back to personal safety. Plan ahead of time and practice getting by in a survival situation. You can use that same concept for floods and fires."

Once a neighborhood or group of friends decides to prepare together, they can start asking local officials tough questions about what types of infrastructure are likely to crash. The answers can help chart the direction of their planning.

When preparing for Y2K, a group should try to contact a local official who could help quell--or potentially heighten--fears.

An interesting case study can be found in Fairfax County, Virginia, which is home to almost 1 million people and the keeper of a substantial portion of the Internet's guts: Network Solutions, the primary registrar of ".com" domain names.

Fairfax County has an actual Y2K coordinator, a man named Jim Brown. It's his job to know the Y2K compliance status for the county computer systems, emergency 911, banks, and mission-critical suppliers the county deals with.

Snapshot: Fairfax County, Virginia

Population: More than 900,000 people. Started addressing Y2K: Two years ago. Y2K compliance status: Almost 80 percent done with remediation for computer systems and applications for county. The 8,000 PCs used by the county government have been completely assessed. Adult retention centers, Emergency 911 system, and electrical service have been checked and are not expected to go down. Still on the table: Embedded microprocessors in sewer treatment facility are still being assessed. The county is still checking with equipment vendors and suppliers of critical resources like diesel fuel, which would run generators, to make sure they are Y2K compliant. Grey areas: Elevators, fire alarms, security systems. A county official says they may not be able to check all of these systems before 2000. The county is worried about small to midsize firms that may not have the money to assess and update their systems. Plan B: Fairfax County is looking for secondary suppliers in case their main vendors aren't Y2K ready. They are evaluating what county tasks can be put off if utilities go down. The last word: "We will continue to test and check right up to the last Minute."--Jim Brown, Y2K coordinator for Fairfax County.

Source: Jim Brown, Y2K coordinator, Fairfax County

"Our sheriff checked with the people who installed the security in our adult retention centers to make sure the doors don't come swinging open on January 1, 2000. They won't," he said.

Although he admits he can't always respond personally, the county does send status reports upon request. Still, he said that status is constantly changing.

"We're still looking into the sewer treatment facility to make sure it doesn't have embedded microprocessors that could fail," Brown said. "We will continue to test and check everything right up to the last minute."

Rosy reports from officials shouldn't replace the incentive to plan ahead, said Paloma O'Riley, founder of the Cassandra Project, a nonprofit organization that has worked with 200 Y2K preparedness groups across the country.

A five-hour blackout in the San Francisco Bay Area last month was proof positive that personal lives and industry--especially the new wave of e-commerce companies--do come to a halt when the lights and phones go out.

"There is still a lot of denial at the local level. They should be having public meetings to legitimize the [Y2K] problem," O'Riley said.

"Regardless, we should always practice emergency preparedness, and it's something we don't do in this country," she added. "If we become more self-reliant, we won't be vulnerable to infrastructure problems."  

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