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General discussion

What are your tech predictions for 2011?

Dec 16, 2010 1:32PM PST
What are your tech predictions for 2011?

Since we are rapidly approaching the New Year, I thought it would be fun to give the technical help and how-to a break and throw out a question about tech predictions for 2011. Do you think 2011 will be the year for tablets since so many companies are following suit after the Apple iPad release? Or how about 3D TVs: will the technology eventually become an integral part of all TVs or will it simply fade away? Will streaming video devices kill the DVD market? What about cell phones: will they all eventually be replaced by smartphones? Will the Google Android platform overtake the Apple iPhone OS? Will e-book readers eventually evolve to become tablet devices? These are some thoughts I had, but I'd like to know what you think? If you have a tech gadget prediction for the New Year or have any opinions on the questions I wrote above, I'd love to hear them. Let's discuss it together and have some fun! Thanks in advance.

-Lee

Here are some member predictions to get you started, but
please read all the predictions that our
members have contributed to this question.

Tech predictions --Submitted by: mad_reaper
http://forums.cnet.com/7726-10152_102-5048451.html

2011 predictions --Submitted by: minimalist
http://forums.cnet.com/7726-10152_102-5048579.html

My predictions --Submitted by: Nicholas Buenk
http://forums.cnet.com/7726-10152_102-5049167.html

Tablets, smart phones, high end desktop computer --Submitted by: LivingForTheFuture
http://forums.cnet.com/7726-10152_102-5048501.html

Tech predictions --Submitted by: Michael Panknin
http://forums.cnet.com/7726-10152_102-5048549.html

Thank you to all who contributed!

Discussion is locked

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Tech Predictions
Dec 17, 2010 6:46AM PST

I am excited about low cost notebooks running Google Chrome OS doing the
tasks I would buy extra boxes for. Garmin, iPad, mail and electronic book readers.
The low overhead of linux, linspire or even Google Chrome make running applications
like Google Chrome browser fast and efficient. It might breathe new life into old
outdated laptops who can run Google Chrome but not a mainstream OS. Just my humble opinion.

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predicting the future, the tech revolution.
Dec 17, 2010 6:53AM PST

In the coming decade I am expecting to see a whole revolution in how a lot of tech works and its social impacts. And the main leader for so much of this change is carbon. Not the stuff that you shove on the fire to stay warm, but the nano-scaled versions of it. Carbon nano-tubes promise to improve everything from how we construct huge buildings, to how computers work, and even how we collect electricity. Flexible screens will be the true beginning to the "everything is interactive" world that society is trying to reach. Whilst 3D TV's will only make us itch more to get true holographic devices (the holographic displays will probably take a while longer...).

I am also hoping to see further improvements with robotics, to the point where they really would be able to integrate into human society. Medical advances will be made possible through prosthesis, and may even become the norm to have a prosthetic organ replaced instead of a donor's organ.

If all of the above sounded out of the question (next year not next decade) its because next year is the beginning of all of this. Along with some more "down to Earth" issues and questions. For example, the Wikileaks issues are asking the tough questions as to where the law stands in the internet, and how information is processed on the internet because of legal changes. The integration of more popular organisations (google, facebook, youtube, twitter, etc) will increase further, whilst other physical devices will try to do the same. We should also expect improved internet connectivity, namely in the environment of wireless technologies.

So long as the political and financial sides of things can catch up, keep up, and accelerate the improvements of tech, next year, and the rest of the decade itself, should be a fun time to ride through.

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Tech Predictions
Dec 17, 2010 7:31AM PST

Apple will completely reboot the Apple TV platform and the new offering will completely blow away the other streaming video devices. Apple will do it by bringing out new hardware and getting deals with Hulu and other content providers so they won't be blocked. Roku will struggle. Google TV and Boxee Box will be dead and buried.

3D TVs will reach critical mass and have a break-out year. A bunch of new 3D Blu-ray releases will convince many people to buy 3D TVs, even though they just bought a new HDTV a few years ago. 3D TV sets will be in the home theater or family room; the old HDTVs will migrate to bedrooms and play rooms.

e-book readers will be replaced by tablets. People will realize that a more functional tablet is a better deal than a single purpose e-book reader. Sony will junk its e-book reader and migrate its e-books to its own tablet offering; Kindle will discontinue its hardware and focus on providing the books through software installed on the fast-selling tablets.

Google Android will slow down, stagnate then fizzle. Google will not be able to control all the incompatibilities between devices, OS revisions and sloppy apps.

The OnLive microconsole will give Xbox 360 and PS3 a run for their money. It will be an also ran but Microsoft and Sony will kick their next-gen console development into high gear. OnLive will get baked into some TVs and, even though it will barely work, it will scare the heck out of Microsoft and Sony. Wii will continue undeterred and have a breakout year.

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Android fizzle?
Dec 19, 2010 10:26PM PST

Hahaha, Steve Jobs, is Mad Reaper your handle?

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jacketsmoncler
Dec 21, 2010 10:56AM PST

Absolutely agree with you. 3D TVs will reach critical mass and have a break-out year.

Note: This post was edited by forum moderator to remove ad link. on 01/06/2011 on 2:56 PM PT

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Rech Predictions for 2011
Jan 7, 2011 11:46AM PST

The predictions you guys give are all pretty interesting. There's a mixed bag on tablets, and 3-D. For my own part, I have little idea of what the future will bring in new technology--of course, what we have today will improve and evolve--but entirely new technology, like the possibility of the laser in 1953, or its possible applications in 1960, are of immense anticipation to me. The unknown possibilities and the feeling that at any moment a new technology will be announced that holds the promise of re-inventing the economic outlook of America and the world is dizzying. I suspect that it will not be 3-D video, though: a purely passing fad, IMHO.

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Tech predictions
Jan 7, 2011 4:26PM PST

I think e-readers - the Amazon Kindle - will remain very popular but be used purely for downloading and reading books - because the screen is so clear and the reader is so light that you can hold it any way you like and in any conditions, even in the dark with a lighted case. You never get eye-strain with it and it is taking over in the UK from any other reader. Prices will have to drop to be competition to the $70 Kindle.

Tablets will be additional rather than replacing the Kindle. Every home will have one!

But they will be used in conjunction with some form of desktop.

I think 3 D tv is just another gimmick - it can't take over from HD because there is such a large proportion of older people in the world now, that they won't want to see the noisy, scary type films that are being promoted in order to show off 3 D at its best. I think people will get tired of animals jumping out at them or balls and other objects being thrown at their heads. People are too intelligent for this phase to be more than a gimmick.

I trust the public to see through the advertising.

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3D TVs will be a flash in the pan !
Jan 7, 2011 5:09PM PST

I don't believe that 3D TV's will become the media of choice. The gimmick value for kids will be of interest, but in the same way that Free to air HD TV has not caught on in Australia, with continued tightening of the belts require for 2011 family finances across the globe, other priorities will take precedence, especially if you are still paying for that large flat screen in your lounge room!. My forecast is that within 2 - 3 years, 3D TVs will be on the scrap heap along with the old audio cartridges that used to change direction part-way through the songs, Sony Beta VHS cassettes and the more recent airbags for cyclists' heads ! (Oh yes and if you wear glasses, then 3D viewing is really annoying for anything more that the occasional hit-out!.)

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3D and Red Cars
Jan 9, 2011 2:52AM PST

I don't think people will go out to buy a 3D TV any more than people go out to order a red car (dealers have red cars on the lot because people can be talked into buying them). When the year is over there will be lots and lots of 3D TVs in peoples houses but very few 3D DVDs, most will use the 3D for sports. That being said I own a red car (yup, dealer had it on the lot when I needed a new car). Keep up the great work CNET!

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Tech predictions for 2011 by Dr. Bob
Dec 17, 2010 7:31AM PST

Tablets, tablets, tablets: Tablets will take over the netbook space. Tablets will take over the eReader space as people realize that they don't really get eyestrain from looking at an LCD screen. Somebody will develop a low reflective coating that doesn't affect touch screen performance.

3-D will rule TVs at the high end (>60") but will be non-existent at the low end (<40") for a while yet. The midrange will be mixed. Most new movies coming out seem to be 3-D. As an exemplar, BD hasn't driven DVD players off the shelves. (My prediction for 2015)

Streaming video devices won't replace DVDs until everything ever recorded can be streamed to any device. (My prediction for 2025)

Cell phones: We'll still have cell phones that aren't smart phones, but smart phones will continue to raise the bar with lower prices, more services and more integration with stuff. (To the cloud!) Look for a bluetooth headset with integrated autofocus camera and speech to text that will allow you to stream your life in realtime to your favorite social media site(s). Look for service plan prices to drop in 2011 as more unlimited everything plans become available. Non-smart phones will be smaller voice controlled units, so the most visible part of the phone will be the Bluetooth headset with the integrated auto-focus camera lens. Look for tablets that incorporate cell phones (How's that for a switch?) with voice control, bluetooth/camera headset. The line between phone and tablet will be blurred to the point that you will only carry one device, determined by your preference in size. Is it a big smartphone or a small tablet? Who cares, as long as you only need to carry one.

Google Android vs iPhone: Android will become the leading Smartphone platform, but not by much. Android's advantage will be its openness. Multiple manufacturers and price competition will put Android on top, but the multiplicity of form factors and interfaces will keep consumers guessing. Windows phone 7 will be in 3rd place, with WebOS a distant 4th.

Look for the flexible LED screen to debut in late 2011, freeing mobile devices from rigid glass screens and allowing the electronics package to be even smaller than today's devices. The flexible touch screen will arrive in mid-2012. As manufacturing technology improves, flexible screens will be available in wall sized units.

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Tablet remorse.
Dec 17, 2010 7:34AM PST

CES is next month with many new tablets to be shown.

Honeycomb is here but too late for XMas 2010 so my prediction is remorse for those that had to buy in 2010.

Maybe this will be the thing that replaces the netbook.
Bob

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Tablets
Dec 17, 2010 7:54AM PST

I think we will get a lot of tablet computers out. I think that there might be some cheaper comptetition to the I Pad and Samsung Galaxy Tab, UNLIKE the Archos 7 and other low quality tablets. I think that maybe by the end of 2011, these good quality tablets will cost less than the I Pad. I also think that the I Pod Touch will get reduced in price as well.

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phones, phones
Dec 17, 2010 8:01AM PST

I think smartphones are going to be THE devices in computing. Convergence means that they are more and more like netbooks. Laptops are less and less necessary for casual surfing and email. More specifically--I'm looking for a Droid X type GSM phone. The big screen makes its a netbook replacement in many circumstances, but it's about time we see some GSM phones. CDMA is too limited.

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Tech Predictions for 2011
Dec 17, 2010 8:11AM PST

Tablets are definitely going to be the item of choice in 2011. We already know that many manufacturers are developing tablets of various sizes to try and compete with Apple's I-Pad. The key question is, will they be able to compete with Apple's wide range of application software. Price will probably determine who gets the lion's share of the market,and Apple will most likely have to make some price adjustments downward,to stay ahead of the pack.
I suspect Apple will introduce a few new I-Pads of various sizes in 2011, to go head to head with the competition. ET

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Tablets,Smart phones, High end desktop computer
Dec 17, 2010 8:40AM PST

I believe the tablet will be touch screen all the way, but I think a feature there will thorough is a slid out keyboard, and have option for a solid state drive. The e-readers will be discontinued cause of the popularity of tablets. Desktops will be used for gaming and hd video rendering and memory intensive purposes, will replace the xbox and the ps3 entirely, or people will continue to be dumb and fall for the console gimmicks! Or people will buy media pc's over a console to play their games, and websites will provide services to watch all your content in HD OR 3D. I think a higher resolution tv is in the works for 2011. Smart phones will get thiner like almost paper thin, and will be able to load and play games much faster and become a secondary gaming device, when away from home. Also movies will be sold on a USB device, and blue rays will be phased out. Also the online market for movie downloading will explode much like itunes with music in recent years. Speeds of internet is going to soar, and become more affordable to everyone. Like the majic jack you will be able to pull cable from your internet connection. All you will need is one service which is internet to get all your needs.

I think windows will release a gaming version of windows for people using media consoles to play games, Also the digital camera will become non-existent because the phone will take card of that and take phenomenal photographs. All in all technology will become more simplified and our use for one service which in internet will only be needed for all are media needs.

Note: This post was edited by forum moderator to combine two posts by member into one. on 01/07/2011 on 1:36 PM PT

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no
Jan 7, 2011 9:20PM PST

i m disagree to youre thinkg, gramma n spelink. Phones will never replace cameras. How many terrible pics do u see on facebook and such, where the picture is all grainy due to bad light sources (flash) and/or useless lenses. PC gaming vs Console gaming. Bah! PC gaming could be best if not for 1 thing - WINDOWS! People just want to put the game in and start playing. Noone wants to muck around with screen resolutions, framerates amd turning features on & off just to get the game to work. Paper thin cell phones?this year? Someone must have reinvented the circuitboard, wiring, screens, batteries and indestructable housing, in which case, this technology will be applied to all electronic (or is that atomic) devices. Dreaming is good for the soul and a reflection of spirit, but keep it real, yo

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This Year?
Jan 10, 2011 4:13AM PST

The Nikon D700 is getting replace by a smart phone? I think not.

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tech predictions
Dec 17, 2010 10:01AM PST

I just can't believe that 3-D TV is more than a flash in the pan. I also don't believe that streaming video devices will kill the DVD market....next year, or probably the year after, however, by then,there will be a way to flawlessly record streaming video and pre-recorded DVD disks will go the way of VHS.
Smart phones are nice, but good cell phones are cheaper and have A LOT better reception, I think they'll hang in there for about three more years and then be marketed out of existence. Tablet devises have to be much more functional than they are now to take over the net book/laptop market.

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I agree but,
Jan 7, 2011 4:51PM PST

3DTV came too soon (to close to recent HDTV upgrades) or too late (stereoscopics has been present in films at cinemas for several decades without ever becoming a standard). Not even after Avatar.

There is a mistake in considering back-illuminated screens as tablets are, as replacement for electronic ink devices as Kindle and so many others This does not imply that e-book readers will necessarily overcome tablets, but if they do not and stagnate or are finally abandoned, we will continue with paper books for long. Ever tried to read a long text on a tablet (or netbook)under the sun or sitting comfortably at a park? Not easy,is it?

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Kindle e-reader
Jan 7, 2011 10:53PM PST

The Kindle is marvellous in full sun - am sitting out on terrace in Spain enjoying my fabulous Lee Child thriller - could not do without it for holidays. If I find a book I really love, then I buy it later to keep on my bookshelf which now holds only the books that matter to me.

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hmm ebook readers
Dec 17, 2010 10:05AM PST

I have always said I would never buy an ebook reader. why buy something for several hundred dollars for something that does one thing.

I can read my ebooks on my laptop, netbook and Palm Pre. all multi use devices. I can see replacing my netbook for a tablet that is touch screen and can read ebooks. but for the I have to wait in line/doctors office/restaurant by myself times I want to be able to read on my phone.

As far as the Google Android system. It has is uses, iPhones being replaced it will only because like the palm OS the phones are not universal to all phone services and are not updated frequently enough in phone design. Not that it is needed for any thing but looks, the software updates on palm keep it current.

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eReaders will soon be 50 dollars or less.
Dec 17, 2010 10:25AM PST

People will buy them to compliment their tablets and laptops for times when an expensive device with a backlit LCD display just doesn't make sense (the beach, bright sunlight, by a pool, etc). They will be the tiny gym mp3 players of the eBook market.

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35 or 50 next week?
Dec 17, 2010 10:42AM PST
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eInk readers, not cheap tablets.
Dec 17, 2010 11:56PM PST

they suffer the same fate as expensive tablets in bright sun.

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eInk readers not doing well.
Dec 18, 2010 3:17AM PST

As I travel I see more iPads than all eInk devices. Follow the market.

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Dominating the market and "doing well" are different
Dec 18, 2010 4:44AM PST

things. Apple has shown that you don;t have to dominate a market to be highly profitable. As long as there are people who love books and want to read in the sunlight, there will be a place for eInk devices.

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"Market" is always biased and frequently wrong
Jan 7, 2011 11:20PM PST

If you had said "Marketing" it would have been clearer, but still not something to follow with closed eyes. The main problem will be standards, as usual.

Reading a book on a netbook or tablet is very stressing and quite uncomfortable, unless you have 20 years or less.

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2011 predictions
Dec 17, 2010 10:21AM PST

1. 3DTV will continue to be ignored by most consumers. Several broadcasters will scale back their investment in the technology.

2. The end of AT&T exclusivity in the US will mean iPhone and Android adoption rates will more or less achieve parity.

3. Tablets will be a jumbled mess most of this year. In the fall Android will finally hit its stride just as it did with the introduction of the Droid.

4. RIM and Nokia will continue to lose smartphone market share and still have no idea why.

5. Windows Phone 7 will continue to limp along. Second gen phones next fall will slowly grow their market share. The platform will eventually establish itself as a strong third to Android and Apple.

6. Palm will stage a comeback and by then nobody will care anymore.

7. Microsoft will finally get serous about tablets in the fall giving up on Windows 7 as a touch platform. Windows phone 7 v.2 will accommodate multiple resolutions.

8. Chrome OS will fizzle. Google will finally double down on Android.

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(NT) Well where are you or on what platform are you currently usi
Jan 7, 2011 10:00AM PST
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2011 Going Green and moving forward
Jan 10, 2011 4:50AM PST

I don't know alot of people that are in to 3D at the movies let alone shelling out 200$ a person for this in their home so until it doesn't need glasses Im saying its out.

When the 3D DS hits the market it will be a slam dunk and likely much popular than any 3D TV, no glasses required here.

Win7 Should continue to increase OS market Share, Apple phone will continue to do well and take market share from RIM and other smart phones.

We should see much greater adoption of newer tech in Healthcare due to Hitech reg and compliance.

SSD drives are gradually picking up speed but still too pricey for most and Bluray still wont be that popular because its too expensive and who wants to deal with physical media these days. I know my huge DVD collection just sits there, the same would be true of anyone adopting Bluray, physical media is out and everyone needs to offer online HD content to the masses and stream to anything anywhere such as Iphone, Car players, etc..

Blockbuster and stores of that type bankrupt, redbox should be moving up for convenience factor. All in All we are moving forward and should see some great improvements. Also modern lighting such as CFL and LED's are become more popular and will phase out classic lighting. CFL's have the upper hand due to lower pricing, electric car and hybrid vehicle sales will also continue to climb.. go green! Earths now at approx 7 billion people and climbing, we all need to conserve and be efficient.