My only real quibble is that I think he underestimates the problem possibly posed by China until his footnotes ("And then there's AIDS). China was unable to be forthcoming about SARS; all reports indicate that AIDS is an increasing threat, especially in the west and south of the country, but the PRC's sclerotic leadership seems compelled to sweep that under the rug. I fear that real change will not occur until and unless the bootheel of Communism is taken off the necks of the Chinese people - and that could entail real problems (in a nuclear armed nation, at that).
But the author nails the essential problem of the Mideast - a freedom deficit:
The Middle East is the perfect place to start. Diplomacy cannot work in a region where the biggest sources of insecurity lie not between states but within them. What is most wrong about the Middle East is the lack of personal freedom and how that translates into dead-end lives for most of the population?especially for the young. Some states like Qatar and Jordan are ripe for perestroika-like leaps into better political futures, thanks to younger leaders who see the inevitability of such change. Iran is likewise waiting for the right Gorbachev to come along?if he has not already.
What stands in the path of this change? Fear. Fear of tradition unraveling. Fear of the mullah?s disapproval. Fear of being labeled a ?bad? or ?traitorous? Muslim state. Fear of becoming a target of radical groups and terrorist networks. But most of all, fear of being attacked from all sides for being different?the fear of becoming Israel.
This, of course, is why there are so many in the region that truly fear that Iraq might become a democratic state - and why so many are trying to stop it from becoming just that.