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General discussion

Timeless Technology Dilemma

Mar 31, 2005 5:38PM PST

With all technology, continuous advances and innovations are the norm. This, for the most part, is a good thing. However, the pace at which this takes place leaves one in a dilemma. An appropiate example for my case is computers. One can buy a cutting edge system today, and it will be outdated within a couple years due to new technologies. This leads some to wait for the next new technologies. However, this leaves them in a state of limbo, always waiting for the next advancement or innovation, and never actually buying anything out of fear that it will be made obsolete by yet more advancements and innovations just around the corner. This is the Technology Dilemma. I find the best solution to this is to time your purchases with the great advancements in technology that should have some longevity to them. Applicable examples of these advancements might be the new PCI Express and Express card, both replacing technologies that had a long run. This leading one to conclude that the new technologies will also have a long run and will not be made obsolete anytime soon. Waiting for these landmark advancements seems to me the most advisable for someone looking for a system with scalability/longevity, as I am. However, the problem with this is that it isn't always easy to determine what these landmark innovations are and when they will be released. This is where I hope some of you can help me. I usually research my big purchases a lot to ensure reliability, quality, and 'bang for buck.' I research my technology purchases even more extensively to ensure scalability. This is necessary for me due to the cost of laptops and my limited budget (college student). I have been researching computer technology and laptop manufacturer's to find the best laptop for me (reliability, security, 'bang for buck', scalability, performance, and quality of warranty and customer support) for a couple years now. I have been waiting so long because I feel that 64-bit processing is the future, and so I am gong to wait for it. However, I have come across concerns that the Windows XP 64-bit version (to be released next month) will have some compatibilty problems with some hardware drivers among other things. I was wondering whether it would be better to wait for Longhorn 64bit (2006) which should have those problems resolved and have other significant technological advancements. By this time, dual-core processors for notebooks should be released along with 64-bit applications/games. My dilemma essentially is whether to buy a 64bit laptop now with the release of Windows XP Pro 64bit or to wait for Longhorn 64bit and a laptop wit dual-core processor. Any advice on this would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

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Timeless Technology Dilemma
Apr 1, 2005 1:56AM PST

It kinda depends on your financial situation ... I have purchased over half-a-dozen PCs in the past 12 years ... each subsequent purchase has been more powerful, more feature-rich, and cheaper than the previous. I accept that something newer & better will be out in a couple of years, and I intend to buy it when it becomes affordable ... i.e., I'm never on the cutting edge ... I always purchase the latest-generation-once-removed technology because generally the bugs have been worked out and the price point has come down.

Even though you indicate you are a college student, you won't be one forever ... or at lest shouldn't be ... you should be considering where you expect to be in a couple / few years in order to guage your potential needs versus potential ability to meet those needs.

Also, with regards to some of your other considerations: scalability & longevity. You do realize you are asking about "notebook" computers? Laptop systems aren't scalable. Period. You must have read the work "scalable" somewhere and misunderstood what it means. 'Scalability' is the ability for a system to 'grow' as usage grows. And that is only a consideration if you have the ability to upgrade the system on the cheap ... which is a valid consideration with servers where you can replace components piecemeal to meet changing needs, but this is not something that is realistic with a laptop. It is far simpler, easier, and cheaper to replace a laptop than to 'upgrade' it because of the way they are built. Longevity is simply based on reliability of hardware ... software can be replaced, whereas with a laptop, you really won't be upgrading your hardware, so you may want to seriously consider NOT buying anything cutting edge ... buy a brand & model that has been on the market ... read the specs ... has the motherboard, type of RAM, disk drive, cpu all been around for a while (couple/few years)? If any component is new on the market, you are taking a risk. The Intel Pentium 2 went to market with a bug in the floating point processor that took something like a year to be resolved at the factory ... you don't want to be buying the latest & greatest unproven technology do you?

I say buy what is available now as long as it meets your current needs, and plan to buy the 'next great thing' (if you really need it) once it has been on the market for while and the kinks have been worked out (manufacturing up to speed, quality under control, distribution channel worked out, etc etc). As long as you buy a well-known name brand, you are unlikely to suffer much in the way of hardware failure or poor customer support, but you will be paying for that kind of reliability and peace-of-mind. If you are adventurous and are willing (and capable) to invest your own time & effort in resolving potential problems (hardware failures & software conflicts) then feel free to invest in one of the less-expensive brands.

It's your call, hope this helps.

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Point well taken, but. . .
Apr 1, 2005 3:03AM PST

Thank you for correcting me about my usage of 'scalability.' I meant it to mean a system that will have longevity in terms of not being made obsolete by new technologies for a relatively long time (4-5 years for a laptop). For example, systems with 32-bit systems will become obsolete in a couple years when 64-bit comes to dominate the market. So I find it wise to wait for the next landmark advancement or innovation in technology if it is just around the corner (within a couple years) and will have longevity (not be replaced and made obsolete for a relatively long time). If you have a more appropiate word than 'scalability' or 'longevity' for what I am trying to say, I would appreciate if you could educate me.

I understand your hesitation about buying new technologies and agree in part. The only time I am really tempted to buy new technologies is when there are landmark advancements that are making previous technologies obsolete and will not itself be replaced for a relatively long time (like PCI Express, Express Card, 64-bit technology).

I think your point about waiting for a while when a new technology comes out before buying is a good one. That is why I might wait for Longhorn to come out. The aproximately one year between the XP 64-bit technology and Longhorn should be sufficient for all the bugs (such as compatibility with hardware drivers) to be worked out. What do you think?

Well, thanks for the advice. Any more imput from you or anyone else would be appreciaited.