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General discussion

They call this a consensus?

Jun 3, 2007 1:32AM PDT

"Only an insignificant fraction of scientists deny the global warming crisis. The time for debate is over. The science is settled."

So said Al Gore ... in 1992. Amazingly, he made his claims despite much evidence of their falsity. A Gallup poll at the time reported that 53% of scientists actively involved in global climate research did not believe global warming had occurred; 30% weren't sure; and only 17% believed global warming had begun. Even a Greenpeace poll showed 47% of climatologists didn't think a runaway greenhouse effect was imminent; only 36% thought it possible and a mere 13% thought it probable...

My series set out to profile the dissenters -- those who deny that the science is settled on climate change -- and to have their views heard. To demonstrate that dissent is credible, I chose high-ranking scientists at the world's premier scientific establishments. I considered stopping after writing six profiles, thinking I had made my point, but continued the series due to feedback from readers. I next planned to stop writing after 10 profiles, then 12, but the feedback increased. Now, after profiling more than 20 deniers, I do not know when I will stop -- the list of distinguished scientists who question the IPCC grows daily, as does the number of emails I receive, many from scientists who express gratitude for my series.

Somewhere along the way, I stopped believing that a scientific consensus exists on climate change. Certainly there is no consensus at the very top echelons of scientists -- the ranks from which I have been drawing my subjects -- and certainly there is no consensus among astrophysicists and other solar scientists, several of whom I have profiled.....

More
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You'd think that the alleged scientists claiming concensus might take a look in the mirror and ask if they're really being objective. Then again, maybe they should ask themselves if they really are the scientists they claim to be in the first place since concensus is not a valid part of the scientific method...

Discussion is locked

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See, to me it quit being a question of science long ago...
Jun 3, 2007 2:31AM PDT

... after all, you have 2 groups of so called experts who have developed models ad infinitum to back up their pet theories and they can ponder the question for years to come. No, to me the issue is how much pollution we allow our civilization to produce for the sake of cheap products and energy. After all, that is what the opponents of man's role in climate change are really championing. They are championing industry and asking for them to be allowed to pollute the Earth... simple as that.


As an example...

Let us say that your neighbor is a chicken farmer who sells eggs and fryers. He has been doing it for years and never once tried to clean up the chicken manure past the effort of shoveling out the hen house and throwing it over the edges of his yard. The manure has polluted the stream you and your neighbors share and the stink makes you keep your windows closed.

Now... the pollution is obviously present. You get worried though and hire a scientist to come in and do a study which shows that the chicken manure will eventually make your home uninhabitable. You ask the chicken farmer to clean up based on your concerns. The Farmer say, "well sure... but I'll have to charge you twice as much for the eggs and fryer parts".

Suddenly all your neighbors are angry at you because you are making their food bill double. They go out and hire their own scientists who come back and report that your scientist was overreacting and that the chicken manure problem is not a problem at all.

In the mean time, the farmer announces that if the neighborhood lets him put in more chickens then he will drop the cost of eggs by a nickel. Everyone cheers while you think of all the extra pollution the new chickens will create.

You see? Everyone knows the pollution is there... everyone knows it does present some sort of problem. It's just that your neighbors who live farther away from the chicken farm don't think about it as much and are happier for the cheap eggs. They know eventually someone will have to clean up the mess... they just hope it doesn't cost them anything to do it or hopefully they will have moved farther away by then.


It's the same thing with the question of global warming. Everyone is so caught up over whose expert is right or wrong that they are ignoring the pollution that is there for everyone to see. You can spend a lifetime assigning or ducking blame... debating did we do this or not. The simple hard fact of the matter is that those who argue that man is not responsible for global warming are tacitly saying that it is OK for industry to pollute if it means cheaper goods and services.

The real question is are you for or against pollution? Remember, either way you decide you may have to explain your choice to your kids and your grandkids... or maybe not.

Wink

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Too much CO2 is supposedly a trouble maker.
Jun 3, 2007 3:28AM PDT

So should you stop producing it, i.e. stop breathing?

BTW, I understand that if the US did not emit any carbon emissions, i.e. operated no cars, factories, or otherwise burned carbon based fuels for an entire year we would have reduced the greenhouse effect by about .75 percent.

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Stop breathing?
Jun 3, 2007 3:37AM PDT

Could you be any more over-dramatic there caktus?

As for your no carbon emissions for a year comment? First off, did I make my comment specifically about the US? Ummm... no, I did not. Iffin your gonna pull out the China card, well... if you keep buying stuff at Walmart then your supporting Chinese industry anyway. So whose fault would it be then?

"we would have reduced the greenhouse effect by about .75 percent." Ummm... what green house effect? I thought the whole debate was that it really didn't exist?

Seriously, I would give a dollar to see where you got your information.

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our friend, the tree.
Jun 3, 2007 3:57AM PDT
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Only happens during the daylight hours
Jun 3, 2007 9:53AM PDT

During the night, trees respire (take in O2 and create CO2. Not as much as the reverse during the day but it does happen.

Diana

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Which is why the continued clearance of the rain forest
Jun 3, 2007 10:41PM PDT

(especially in Brazil) is also a dramatic contributor. Ther problem for the Third World, though, is that they're simply following our example from the 18th and 19th Centuries, when the great North American forest was mostly destroyed. Unfortunately, there often is a tension between economic growth and the environment. If we could ever solve the waste problem, btw, nuclear power is among the cleanest available -- the ultimate answer will be controlled nuclear fusion, which we're spending only a pittance of research money on. Even the cost of two day's current energy consumption would be more than has been spent on this area in the last five years!

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!


David A. Konkel, Ph.D.
Associate Professor and Research Coordinator
Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology
University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston
(409) 772-4074

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Our friend the Synthetic tree
Jun 6, 2007 4:48AM PDT
Synthetic trees could purify air

A scientist has invented an artificial tree designed to do the job of plants.

But the synthetic tree proposed by Dr Klaus Lackner does not much resemble the leafy variety.

"It looks like a goal post with Venetian blinds," said the Columbia University physicist, referring to his sketch at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Denver, Colorado.

But the synthetic tree would do the job of a real tree, he said. It would draw carbon dioxide out of the air, as plants do during photosynthesis, but retain the carbon and not release oxygen.

If built to scale, according to Dr Lackner, synthetic trees could help clean up an atmosphere grown heavy with carbon dioxide, the most abundant gas produced by humans and implicated in climate warming.

He predicts that one synthetic tree could remove 90,000 tonnes of CO2 in a year - the emissions equivalent of 15,000 cars.

"You can be a thousand times better than a living tree," he said
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Amazing! :-)
Jun 6, 2007 9:45AM PDT

And they say we won't find a substitute for fossil fuels. Happy If we can make a tree that "breathes". who knows?

Seriously, there are possible applications for the artificial "tree" when the costs come down.

At least it's good to know there are people out there looking for solutions.

Angeline
Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email
semods4@yahoo.com

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CO2 filter
Jun 6, 2007 12:09PM PDT

A few weeks ago, I had seen an article about a filter that would remove CO2, say, from some industrial process. The first of it would probably be used by soft drink companies, but I'm sure others could use it.

I've been trying to find it lately, but to no avail. Sad

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IMO, the debate.....
Jun 3, 2007 4:02AM PDT

...... has drawn as much passion as some social issues.

An unknown in the equation is if this would be so had not Mr. Gore championed his side.

Angeline
Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email
semods4@yahoo.com

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Actually, no. It's not about allowing people to pollute.
Jun 3, 2007 8:24AM PDT

No one wants toxins dumped into the air or water in any significant quantity. I assume you realize that emissions at extremely low levels are neither toxic nor pollution.

No, the sceptics are really saying that you and your ilk have not proved your point. You want the rest of us to spend our wealth trying to eliminate a phantom. The rule must be, proof first. Then we'll think about spending. You want action and spending without proof because you fear the boogeyman will get you. He won't, and it's time to ante up.

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Ah, spend your wealth... now there is the rub!
Jun 3, 2007 10:58AM PDT

You say it is not pollution in small increments... how much of it has to be produced before it becomes a pollutant?

You live in Chicago Kid? Next to Lake Michigan? It has made a pretty remarkable come back over the last few decades, ecologically speaking that is. Would you have drank an untreated glass of water out of it back in the 1960's? The 1980's? Heck, how about now? How often do you eat fish caught out of Lake Michigan?

Now... consider how long it took to the point where Lake Michigan was at its most polluted. Think about how many insignificant amounts of pollution went into the lake to get it to that point? Are you seriously going to tell me it didn't add up over time?

Now, about your assertion that the emissions at extremely low levels are neither toxic nor pollution. What you really mean is that they are not hazardous if they are diluted enough, correct? I mean you wouldn't consider spending a week sitting half way inside an active smoke stack with no protection, right? So what makes the difference between acceptable emissions and unacceptable pollution. Where is the tipping point? The saturation level?

I give you credit for saying it is about spending wealth. Most people won't say more than it is a political issue. What dismays me is your qualifying the issue thus...

"The rule must be, proof first. Then we'll think about spending." So you are saying the protocol should be if it is proven... we will THINK about correcting the problem that caused it? Isn't that like saying... prove I killed your dog and I will think of not target shooting in my backyard?

Ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It's been true for a few hundred years now and I don't see it changing anytime soon.


Hey, I'm in the market for a new digital camera but I just spent a few grand on software and other equipment... is the Nikon D-40 worth the money or should I spend a few hundred more for something else? Thanks for your input on this one.

grim

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I would not have drunk untreated Lake Michigan water if I
Jun 4, 2007 2:37PM PDT

lived here in 1900. That hasn't changed since although the lake is lot cleaner now than it used to be.

The pollution in Lake Michigan began hundreds of years ago, and has absolutely nothing to do with global warming.

IMCO, Nikon is a dead end system. Canon dominates the scene today. That's unfortunate. Canon needs some competition.

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re: camera
Jun 4, 2007 11:41PM PDT

Many of my friends like the Canons for the body and the lenses but i have met some Nikon fanatics who rave with religious fervor about their lens quality. Their passion is what made me interested.


As for drinking water from any place... I know some pristine mountain streams that I still wouldn't drink out of without filtering the water. No mater how clean it looks, there can still be pollution not to mention Giardia cysts and other nasty bacteria.

Not to beat a dead horse but I totally agree with you... pollution has nothing to do with global warming. That is why the 2 issues are separate in my view.

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Not really....
Jun 3, 2007 10:22PM PDT

I see the pollution and readily admit that we should be working on doing better, but....

The naysayers would have us spend all of our research dollars on climate change to implement a mass reduction in made made gases when science shows they are a miniscule contributor to climate change. CO2 emmissions are what they are but they're not the big culprit they're claimed to be. If they were then it would seem that we should get busy advocating mandated population control of the animal population as a whole, humans included, to reduce anthropogenic contributions of both CO2 and methane, huh?

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You make a point C1ay, but to clarify my position...
Jun 3, 2007 11:29PM PDT

... I'm not talking about global warming and I certainly never mention it's poster boy/whipping boy Al Gore because, to me, it's not about politics, it's not about global warming, it's not about CO2 emissions versus particulate matter versus cow farts ad infinitum. It is about a concept my mum taught me and a philosophy reinforced during many years of back packing when I was more capable.

That is the idea that if you make a mess, you clean it up. In the woods it is called "leave no trace" or more precisely if you bring it in with you then you carry it back out.

To distill it down even farther... be responsible.

Instead of being responsible for what we do, I see mankind rationalizing everything they do. We sit here and say that we want all these products and we want all the energy but we don't want to have to clean up the whole mess left over. The rationalization boils down to "it's too expensive or it's too much trouble". I had a room mate my freshman year in college who said that about his laundry. Instead of washing clothes he went out and bought more. A few months into the school year the stink got so bad that the people in the next room complained! I went to the janitorial closet and got 3 of those 55 gallon roughneck garbage cans and loaded up all his dirty clothes into them. I view industrial pollution this way (and history has pretty much proven this true) in that industry will always pick the cheapest way of dealing with their own mess, or not deal with it at all if they can get away with it.

I give respect to anyone willing to admit the real issue is about money. The people who argue for hours about whose favorite scientist is right and whose is wrong is just fooling themselves (no disrespect to you). No, the real debate is how much pollution is acceptable. The greenies just put preasure on the industrialists by saying we have already reached the tipping point. The industrialists are gambling that we haven't. But no matter how I have approached examining this issue, all I see is one group in favor of pollution for economic reasons and one group who is not for ecological/philosophical reasons.

Is my analysis wrong?

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Yes, it IS a consensus, Clay -- now even more than then
Jun 3, 2007 5:11AM PDT

For example, take a look at the

Joint declaration on global warming by the national science academies of all eight G8 nations plus Brazil, India and China,

issued a bit over two years ago. You can't get a clearer consensus than that -- the naysayers have about as much credibility in the scientific community as did the tobacco company execs swearing to Congress that nicotine isn't addictive!

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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consensus? So what?
Jun 3, 2007 6:37AM PDT

Use facts. 9 out of 10 "scientists" saying the sun revolves around the Earth, don't make it so.

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Yes, but 9 out of 10 scientist are not saying that here.
Jun 3, 2007 11:03AM PDT

I guess you missed that little notice Copernicus put out... of course there was Aristarchus of Samos back around 300 BC as well but no one really paid much attention to him.

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Did you miss the point?
Jun 4, 2007 2:46AM PDT

9 out 10 of those scientits were WRONG

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This isn't the Dark Ages, Duckman
Jun 6, 2007 9:51AM PDT

Though that news apparently hasn't reached Kansas yet Wink

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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Any point other than your glibness?
Jun 6, 2007 10:13AM PDT

Point is that you global warming kool aid drinkers don't get is, a majority of anyone can't over rule FACTS. Be intellectually honest for once. Which has caused more damage to education, the religious people of Kansas (that you seem to have plenty of contempt for), or the court ordered busing by the intellectually pompous activist courts??

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I was just struck by paroxysms of irony
Jun 6, 2007 12:41PM PDT

Here, amid your efforts to be as disagreeable and insulting as possible (as if that somehow proves your logic defensible) you indefatigably declare the stupidity of following a majority consensus.

Yet, just a couple of years ago, you were one of many who said the country must follow a certain path because the majority had spoken. I'm vastly amused by this change of heart.

Thanks for the chuckle DM!

Happy

grim

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There is no irony...
Jun 6, 2007 9:10PM PDT

There are times when it is appropriate to use a consensus or a majority to determine something, and there are times when it is inappropriate. Determining scientific fact by consensus is most inappropriate.

Saying that something must be so because lots of people say so is a sign of the weakness of the proposition.

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'scuse?
Jun 6, 2007 9:38PM PDT

Determining scientific fact by consensus is most inappropriate...
Saying that something must be so because lots of people say so is a sign of the weakness of the proposition.

and before there were scientists?

when the church was the ruling power and said "the sun revolves around the earth" and could back it up with "biblical evidence"....


.,

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So what? They were WRONG...
Jun 6, 2007 9:44PM PDT

Do you dispute that?

Anyway, that was then; this is now. Is there any reason whatsoever to use a standard from centuries past that was incorrect to decide things NOW?

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(NT) gotta love paul simon.....
Jun 6, 2007 10:42PM PDT
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A random comment....
Jun 6, 2007 11:13PM PDT

Did you intend some meaning?

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But isn't that the point?
Jun 6, 2007 10:49PM PDT

You mention using a standard of the past that was incorrect. That standard was based on biblical interpretation. In short, the data was not the appropriate material to base such a scientific observation upon (an interesting point of discussion with extreme religious implications for those who would state today that the Bible is the true word of God and must be interpreted literally). Conclusion? Just because a majority believes does not make it true... QED

Now, I personally believe the comparison DM makes is faulty since the Church dogma on celestial structure was indeed based on no attempt at scientific data collection... but let us say that the analogy shows one can not take the word of someone who declares themselves an authority until time and the scientific method proves them out. To be more concise... a political or religious preference held by many does not make for accurate scientific truth. That is basically what DM is arguing in this case, correct? That preference does not make for fact?

Now... If preference does not make for fact... and the pro-glabal warmers prefer one scientific conclusion and the anti-global warmers prefer a different scientific conclusion, then why should one profess a preference for either side of the coin?

Few, if any of us, are qualified to interpret the data provided by the real scientists involved in this debate. Yes? Yet both sides have turned this into nothing more than a popularity contest based on the conclusion of one side or the other. DM and some others say the evidence provided is wrong. Let us take that out of the equation. DM says that a majority consensus by scientist or the public is wrong so let us discount that factor as well. So let us examine motive then...

What do both sides have to gain from their point of view? What is the motive of those who believe and those who don't?

I will leave that question out there for anyone else to answer.

grim

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No, the problem is that the people who believe...
Jun 6, 2007 11:07PM PDT

in Global Warming (faith based?) say "the time for debate is over", They wish to proceed with actions based on incomplete or incorrect research. When non-scientists declare that the time for debate is over I am very suspicious. It is clear that these people want to change everyone's lifestyles radically and curtail many rights based on a "consensus". That is very disturbing.