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General discussion

The coming ICE Oil Implosion.

Mar 31, 2019 11:34AM PDT

Many won't see this coming. And it's rather sad that the current leaders (USA) seem intent on curbing or killing off our only EV car maker where China is backing theirs.

First, my first car to consider for an errand is our 2014 Leaf SV. Since I got that in 2016 I have filled up the tank on the van twice and it's still has half a tank or more. Mary has the 2016 Prius so the amount of petrol we buy has plummeted.

Here's the video about the ICE Oil Implosion. There are others if folk want to add more:


One of the reasons why the current oil industry wants to keep going is they think there is trillions of dollars of business to be done and they don't want to miss out. So any delay to renewables, EVcars, battery technology and more is money in their pockets. It has nothing to do with the environment to oil companies. It's about the money.

As to coal, that's a hard sell. It used to be that coal beat out wind and solar and maybe it does in some areas. Now the story has changed.

April 2014: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/04/24/solar-is-booming-but-will-never-replace-coal/

December 2018: https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/12/03/plunging-prices-mean-building-new-renewable-energy-is-cheaper-than-running-existing-coal/

Discussion is locked

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Seems hyperlinks are either
Apr 4, 2019 2:47AM PDT

not relevant or dead. No matter. I'd want to see that the energy payback also includes that consumed during the R&D, all of the mining as well as any energy costs to properly tear down, dispose of, recycle, etc. the windmills whose time has ended. I also want those windmills to provide the energy to provide whatever digging and manufacturing energy is needed to reproduce itself or whatever will replace it. I'd also want to make certain that the wind energy that was lost to turning the blades and generator did not negatively affect anything else that would have made use of it. I know that's a lot to ask and why I mentioned the difficultly in quantifying everything. In the end, someone needs to decide if it was worth it. Ask the dead people of Britain's industrial revolution.

Post was last edited on April 4, 2019 6:19 AM PDT

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To SH about SUNK COSTS
Apr 4, 2019 5:53AM PDT

I think you want to rewind history at this point. Good luck about that.

There are studies about sunk costs but here you appear to unwind what humans have worked out over centuries which is not a novel idea.

That is, if you wish to get back to the land and off the grid and more, do that.

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Not my point at all
Apr 4, 2019 7:13AM PDT

I'm just saying it's wise to look both ways before deciding to take a path. We shouldn't think that finding renewable resources of energy is a license to buy more stuff that uses it. It's not unlike folks who think that lower mortgage rates or tax deductions for mortgage payments are license to buy more home than one really needs. Oil and coal will go away some time and won't be back unless the planet goes through the same phase that created the deposits we have. We will need to find other means of energy but it doesn't guarantee there will be more of it as population grows.

There are plenty of prognosticators out there and there have been many in the past. Some were completely wrong but some were eerily accurate. When I look around me and see the energy consuming new things people are buying that (IMO) are not a necessity, I wonder what drives them. How important is it to have your refrigerator send you alerts about it's health while you're away on vacation? Can they not just enjoy their time without a feed from their home security system? Why the paranoia? All of these things and the accessories that go with them require the use of energy to make them and energy to dispose of them. We don't need to live in caves but we should be smarter than are and not get caught up in the hype that's delivered by politicians and advertisers. Perhaps this link would be of interest. It's from 3 years ago and a lot has happened since then...and a lot that's not so great. Sometimes SMART can really mean ignorant.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/your-phone-costs-energyeven-before-you-turn-it-on

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You wrote
Apr 4, 2019 8:53AM PDT

[Thinking that] "finding renewable resources of energy is a license to buy more stuff that uses it."
I think that's one of the points Proffitt and I have been making. We're witcha on that.

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... and it can be hacked to send a burglar the news
Apr 4, 2019 9:01AM PDT

that you're on vacation. Happy

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Good article. Thanks.
Apr 4, 2019 9:05AM PDT

IEEE is good folks. I had a free sub to Spectrum back when. (Their computer thought that "Dr Pruner" deserved one. Grin )

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If you mean Proffitt's links,
Apr 4, 2019 6:22AM PDT

the good news is they work.
The bad news is they're to Wikipedia. Happy

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To drpruner about the Wikipedia links.
Apr 4, 2019 6:43AM PDT

They seem fine. It's just a list of pumped hydro systems. These use gravity just like other hydro plants but with a twist. The water is pumped back to the top using energy that otherwise would be lost.

This system tackles the problem about how to store power from solar and wind so it can be used on demand.

I don't expect folk to know about all the systems we have today or take my word for it. So I vet my answers.

-> I wonder. Is Wikipedia fake news?

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Yeah, and thanks for them. Very interesting.
Apr 4, 2019 8:58AM PDT

You know of my undying hatred for Wikipedia of course. Happy
It is useful for things like these, where opinion isn't involved.

Related: Sometimes things don't post on SUBMIT, so I'm taken to cnet's 404 page. It is really lame. Looks like a design from a CBS mid-manager meeting on a slow Friday. I ain't interacting with no stupid dog.

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Conservation
Apr 3, 2019 4:25PM PDT

I think you are correct - most if not all of our energy questions should focus on the long term cost/benefit analysis. Ultimately we should aim at *less* usage per person or reduce the population gradually so we can better use what we have. This is very hard for governments and corporations to do in the mindset of increasing production that a capitalist economy traditionally encourages.

As you note, the idea of green energy has hidden or at least widely unconsidered ramifications. Until energy storage gets more efficient things like wind, solar, and other tech that produce electricity for end-use will *not* be enough for the vast needs of industry and transportation. The much hyped "magic" battery that eludes R&D may never appear. We should not expect technology to fix our energy woes when simpler changes can realistically help. The problem is these changes like having less children, aiming for reductions in energy use, etc. are tough issues that are politically toxic and not likely to be fostered by politicians focused on getting re-elected and people who reject changing their lifestyles.

Rick

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For Rick.
Apr 3, 2019 5:01PM PDT

My car's battery can charge on the Solar and I rarely need to charge it more than a few days later as it fits nicely in the errands I run regularly.

As to the other battery, the current technology is fine. Tesla powerwall units can be sized up to run homes here for days and where I live the Sun is very reliable. I didn't go with that since that would push my payback from 6 years to 15 to 18 years.

The current technology is here. No need to wait.

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Yes, I've seen some
Apr 4, 2019 2:28PM PDT

articles and PBS shows on current and in-the-pipeline tech for electricity. It's promising and as you note there *are* solutions. But what about the costs of producing so many batteries? Lithium and other tech requires metals, some that are not exactly available worldwide or cheap to mine and refine. Zinc-Air is maybe an exception. Anyway, as Steven notes, the entire life-cycle including manufacture, use, disposal or recycling must be taken into account. And ultimately we as a species must slow down our geometric population growth - there's just no sound reason to destroy our "house" so to speak just because we like having lots of kids. It's something we should be thinking about now, not later, IMO.

Rick

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Population growth
Apr 6, 2019 2:53AM PDT

That's a tough one to talk about as it gets into all kinds of ethical and religious arguments. But, I believe it realistic to think there is a limit to how many humans can live on this planet. We've already seen "mom nature's" ways of culling the herds of species that grow out of control. She'll do it to us as well. No prisoners are taken when this happens. Of course we can always try the Soylent Green approach.

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That will be handled, ethically, by the only one who can.
Apr 6, 2019 10:35AM PDT

Gen 1:28. He purposed that all along. After all it is man's home. Ps 115:16.

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Thank you Richard_Jones for the second
Apr 4, 2019 9:19AM PDT

Saving isn't always about money. I suspect, in the longer run, conservation of resources will cost us in the pocketbook. Marketing hype will try to tell you otherwise. I cringe when I think about world leaders taking huge entourages to meeting places where they discuss reducing carbon emissions in order to save the planet. Here they are travelling the world and spewing jet exhaust as they do so. Not a good example, me thinks. Wink

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Indeed !
Apr 4, 2019 2:16PM PDT

Have they not ever heard about teleconferencing? Or Skype?

I think a lot of folks have just about given up on their leaders - in Congress and Parliaments, etc. , worldwide. There seems to be hope in some local politics through 'grassroots' orgs to get one's issues addressed. I don't know, frankly, how some of our leaders sleep at night - probably have to use pills. And BTW, don't get me started on Big Pharma (!)

I'm 59, my Sis is a little more than two years older, and we both figure around the time we are almost dead things will either be terrible or just slightly worse than now. Not a lot to be excited about - but we both are sort of glad neither of us have kids !

Rick

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Eight million of us don't use those leaders,
Apr 6, 2019 7:03AM PDT

except in passing. We don't miss 'em.
Got a better one, whose installation we commemorate on the 19th.
jw.org

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That last was supposed to show up clickable.
Apr 6, 2019 7:04AM PDT

Try again. Jw.org

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But the "leaders"
Apr 7, 2019 4:34PM PDT

use *us* regardless of what we think. Ha! At least, many try to use us.

In the past, maybe more so than nowadays, our elected governors did just that - they steered their constituencies and in some cases actually did what the people wanted them to do (! what a concept !) : like improve life for their children and give everyone a fighting chance at a better life. There is less and less of that happening, it seems. Maybe we need a true revolution - and
perhaps we'll get one when things *really* become intolerable...

Rick

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Remember the auto crash in 2008?
Apr 5, 2019 5:34PM PDT

Big 3 execs were driven from Midwest to DC to plead for help. After the backlash, the next time they walked or hitchhiked or something.

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From memory the big execs took their private jets.
Apr 5, 2019 6:16PM PDT

They didn't even "jet-pool."

I hope more than a few watched the video at the top of this post as the signs are here along with "it's happening already." There is an oil glut, the loss of the sedan market has happened.

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(NT) You're right, it was jets, one apiece.
Apr 6, 2019 7:00AM PDT
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we still use incandescents at times
Apr 3, 2019 5:51PM PDT

In living room lights during winter, helps a bit more to keep it warm and give light. We also have a reflector light our cats like to nap under with a 75w incandescent bulb in it during winter. I remember my grandparents hatched chicken eggs with use of incandescent lights to maintain the proper temperature for hatching. So, there are some good uses for such.

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We can be thankful that Edison's prescience
Apr 4, 2019 12:35AM PDT

drove him to invent the light bulb for the future refrigerator.
(LEDs don't work so well.)

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Porch light
Apr 3, 2019 5:47PM PDT

Just today we replaced the burnt one with a 15w LED of 1600 lumens.

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My neighbor is complaining about
Apr 3, 2019 6:03PM PDT

Folk stealing her electricity. Then again she has exterior lights on 24x7 and one has 3 bulbs that looked like 75 or 100 Watt incandescents.

I don't need that much light out front so I found 1.5 (one and a half) Watt LED bulbs for the area by the door and out front. It's more than enough to not stumble in the dark, find and use the keys.

It's also no big deal if we forget to shut them off.

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Chevron just made a bet on the Dark Side, Rob.
Apr 12, 2019 6:01AM PDT

As usual, some interesting analysis and numbers from Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-anadarko-petrol-m-a-chevron/chevron-to-buy-anadarko-petroleum-for-33-billion-idUSKCN1RO143

About half the 33 billion is debt. "This seems a big bet on shale and on oil prices remaining high,” said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson. “That seems a big ask if you think that renewables are set to comprise an increasing bigger part of the energy mix.”

Remember the IBM print ads for its corporate s/w? Companies that didn't use it were dinosaurs. Chevron is headed for extinction ... or we are. Happy

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At a recent confab about carbon industries (oil and more.)
Apr 12, 2019 6:19AM PDT

They are really concerned about the push for a "carbon tax." We already see coal can't compete any longer with solar and wind power even if the coal was free which it isn't. As soon as carbon taxes come into play, Coal, oil and gas industries are in more trouble than they are in today.

But about that debt. One of the recurring deals you see is to assume debt in a company, pay out bonuses and then the executives leave the company. Nothing really new there.

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Not sure I catch your splainin on debt.
Apr 12, 2019 9:00AM PDT

I don't get the connection to bonuses.
The debt is owed to third party lenders/investors. The payback and the vigorish can be more than anticipated revenue turns out to be. That indeed has been the case with some shale companies.

I remember an article years ago anent the boom and bust in Texas and such. 'Don't borrow more than the scrap metal value of your rigs.'