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Question

Mainstream thinking?

Mar 3, 2018 4:06PM PST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump struck a defiant tone on Friday, saying trade wars were good and easy to win
>IMO< He is the only one who believes this >IMO<
If true, what does this bode for anyone?

Discussion is locked

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Clarification Request
Some of the comments here are too simple
Mar 5, 2018 2:06PM PST

for the reality. Elsewhere I mentioned the Corn Laws of England.* They can be researched, as can tariff wars in general. Assuming it isn't fake history, you might be surprised.

*They show up in mainstream fiction of the day.

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Answer
Always both a positive and negative side
Mar 3, 2018 4:47PM PST

In the end, the people will need to decide whether it's better to have cheaper goods or job security. We already know that those cheaper goods from China, et al, mean someone else is willing to take less money to produce them. One potential downside is that we can become so dependent on foreign goods that we lose the ability to produce them ourselves should that supply pipeline be lost. I don't think it takes much thinking to come to the conclusion that bringing factory jobs back to this country could mean these same goods will, again, cost more. However, if the full plan works, people should have the money to pay for them. Right now, IMO, we have too much money that's just chasing other money and not being used productively. We also have way too many people dependent on jobs created by government bureaucratic policy that does little or nothing to improve living standards for all.

I think both of our major political parties have shown displeasure with American jobs leaving for overseas but not much has been done about fixing that. But now that it's been reported that jobs are beginning to return, our media will switch from reporting the positive side to reporting the negative. Happy people don't interview as well as angry ones. Nothing new here as far as I can tell.

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So, as to the OP,
Mar 4, 2018 1:33PM PST

you believe that trade wars are easy to win?

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I have no experience with engaging
Mar 4, 2018 2:26PM PST

in trade wars so will reserve comment. Trump has experience in negotiating business deals both at home and abroad so I'd to not argue with him in that regard. I do, however not like his choice of words but he didn't invent them.

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Business deals
Mar 4, 2018 3:20PM PST

The child knows how to negotiate from a position of power.

If the deal turns out to be a bust he knows how to declare bankruptcy and stiff the creditors.

In trade wars the creditors might be the American public.

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I agree on that. Wish it was done the other way.
Mar 4, 2018 3:28PM PST

The old way was to make all government purchases only from products and goods from same country.

This way you keep your manufacturing bases alive.

Some think this is paying more for such but the government gets a hefty discount as what they pay for goods and services generate double digit tax revenues.

If your government buys cheaper from outside the country, there is much less or no tax revenue (no discount.)

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That's one of the many problems
Mar 4, 2018 4:13PM PST

Here'a another......trade imbalance.

One of the big things we export is oil.

We have a glut of the stuff and it's scheduled to get bigger but we don't have a good way to get it to the gulf.

Answer..... build a pipeline.
Sounds good but the pipe is special steel we don't make.
So we import this pipe.
The child just upped the cost by 25% on the steel.
Who's going to pick up the tab for this 25%?
I suspect the child has not thought this tariff thing thru.

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In this case, 25% if paid by USA
Mar 4, 2018 4:56PM PST

The tariff goes to the USA coffers so it's like nothing happened. If you think about it, it's a tax to citizens but not to the government.

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Exactly
Mar 4, 2018 5:40PM PST

The taxpayer picks up the tab or the pipeline builder slows or stops the building of the pipeline.

That means the export of oil does not grow and the trade deficit does not change.

$2 out $1 in.

Is this not what the child is talking about?

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If we were to start a new discussion.
Mar 4, 2018 6:18PM PST

We could cover the idea that we need to leave existing fossil fuel in the ground.

But the math is tricky. If the dollar comes from USGOV, USGOV collected the 25% so USGOV pays same as before.

US corps and citizens pay.

I'm a little disconnected on oil use now. Now in an EVcar most of the time.

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Not sure what you're wanting out of this
Mar 5, 2018 4:33AM PST

but I think you may not be looking at the entire picture. What I see in that picture includes the ultimate goal of the returning lost jobs to the US. As such, if we don't make the special steel needed for the pipeline, perhaps we tool up and do that now. I'd want to think that the overall objective is to keep more money flowing within the US rather than back and forth between the US and foreign nations. To me, that sounds like a good idea. Whether or not it can be made to happen is yet to be seen but it won't be seen if we continue to have obstructionist behavior in our congress. The man was elected and, IMO, deserves to be permitted to sink or swim on his own. I said the same about Obama when he was elected even though I considered him to be wrong for that position.

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I think it's fine
Mar 5, 2018 6:01AM PST

To return jobs to this country.

Special steel.
It's not a matter of can we do this but will we do this.
It all comes down to money, is there a profit to be made?
It's a very small niche market.

Steel in general is used in 100's of products.
If we gear up to produce the quantity the country needs I'm sure that would make the steel producers happy but who pays the cost?
I suspect the taxpayer.

Tariffs and trade wars just turn into a big mess.
Winners and losers.

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People are not going to run out of things
Mar 5, 2018 7:33AM PST

to complain about. They won't look at the whole economic package but just the parts with which they are displeased. The proposed tax reform should put more money in the pockets of citizens but, at the same time, I expect merchants will come after that extra money. Thus, there will be a rise in some prices and that's what I expect the media will harp about. As for taxes and government debt, I would think that keeping the money flowing within the country would provide a better way to deal with the deficit. Dependency on another nation is no different than the dependency of individuals on one another or on the government for their very subsistence. One becomes a type of slave when independence is lost and some other entity is relied upon to keep one alive. Yes..I expect some prices to rise and borrowing to cost more even if we can afford it. We can always moan about that and shake our fists at those in public office. It's become quite a popular sport.

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That's what History is for, Steven.
Mar 5, 2018 2:10PM PST

So we can learn some things without experiencing.
Like Mommy. She's a historian when she tells us 'Fire is hot. Don't touch.'

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Answer
Winners and losers
Mar 4, 2018 3:02AM PST

Tariffs.
When you start down that path there will be winners and losers.

If it brings jobs back to this country but the product now cost more.....winners and losers.

I won't try to guess the net effect of this.

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So, you disagree with the President;
Mar 4, 2018 2:20PM PST

trade wars may be won or lost*. He seems more certain of his view. I asked the question because I found several who agree with you, just in bouncing around the 'net.

*Some say they are always lost by both sides in the long run due to disruptions, collateral damage, unforseen consequences, and sometimes military action. Some of this can be found in the history of the English Corn Laws.

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I think
Mar 4, 2018 2:56PM PST

The child has not thought this thru and may be walking into a mess.

We tax your stuff, you tax our stuff and you get economies having to adjust.

Could take years for things to settle down.