One of the reasons for the disparity in results this time is that as you go from "registered" to "likely," Bush's slight lead grows, because traditionally conservatives are more likely to vote. But after the 2000 fiasco and the resulting damage to the country, those on the other side are much more likely than usual to vote -- realistically not so much for Kerry as against Bush.
-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
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I know it doesn't show Kerry ahead but he is inching up and that's enough for me to post the poll.
I also know there are other polls out there that probably put Bush much further ahead but I don't like those for obvious reasons.