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General discussion

I just had this thought about death rates-.

Apr 4, 2020 9:39PM PDT

Latest Johns Hopkins numbers. Flawed, but all we have.
AP: "Worldwide, confirmed infections rose past 1.1 million and deaths exceeded 63,000 ...
"At the same time, more than 233,000 people have recovered from the virus ..."

233,000 recovered. 63,000 died. That's a total of 296,000 'completed' cases.
So, if the virus went away right now, the death rate would be 63,000÷296,000 = 21%. One fifth. The rates of 1%, 3% and so on are interim, while the plague runs. Isn't the one that will matter the rate calculated when it's over?
Have I missed something?

Discussion is locked

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bad math
Apr 4, 2020 10:52PM PDT

try again. to find the percentage, you have to use the total number of those infected, not recovered.

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I was using resolved cases,
Apr 5, 2020 7:10AM PDT

as we will at the end of the epidemic.
So far, we think that exposure gives immunity, so a survival is just that and a death is just that.

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I'm glad I don't
Apr 7, 2020 1:49AM PDT

depend on you to balance my checkbook....just because a check hasn't cleared yet doesn't mean I can spend more.

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63,000 Saturday.
Apr 6, 2020 8:36PM PDT

74,000 today.
Sad

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I wouldn't waste time trying to figure such things
Apr 7, 2020 6:17AM PDT

This and similar questions are ones I've seen asked of the head of our state health care system. She, the governor, and others have giving daily afternoon briefings on TV for quite some time. When reporters ask for these or other hypotheticals, she lets them know that the data is limited to those who have been tested. Currently, most testing is limited to those showing symptoms who have sought medical help. There is no data on those who were never tested but have recovered from the virus without fanfare. In order to better track this, testing would need to be random but on a fairy large scale. To add even more doubt, consider that the incubation period would require that interval testing might be needed on the same people. A lot of work. What she's said is that later serological antibody testing would be of value. It could better determine the percentage of the total population that had, but survived, the virus.

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All good points. I was thinking of the past and present
Apr 7, 2020 11:01AM PDT

underreporting, for various reasons.
I think my higher estimates are useful if they encourage folks to obey authorities.

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Like this, which came in as I was typing.
Apr 7, 2020 11:06AM PDT
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BTW, it seems that most here are in disagreement with me.
Apr 7, 2020 5:52PM PDT

Y'all will be happy to know that my own poll of political and scientific leaders show that they don't care what I think.
I guess I'll have to unfriend the lot of you.

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what a relief :-)
Apr 7, 2020 6:47PM PDT

..

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'most here'????
Apr 8, 2020 3:18AM PDT

SE has a current 'membership' of about five....Actually, I think it would be a good thing if you unfriended all of us and went your own way since most of what you post is crap anyhow.