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How can this be with all the global warming?

by Evie / August 23, 2006 10:06 AM PDT
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Another nail in the coffin
by marinetbryant / August 23, 2006 10:15 AM PDT
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Not at all, Tom -- water temperature is only one factor
by Dave Konkel [Moderator] / August 23, 2006 11:24 PM PDT

The winds in the Atlantic are stronger than previously forecast, and that "shear" has made it difficult for storms to form, or hold together once they do. Besides, we're now just not entering the heart of the season. Believe me, though, living on the Gulf Coast I don't wish for hurricanes (unlike some hurricane experts, who use phrases like "the problem this year is...")

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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Yes and it's going to be high ~70 degrees today
by Evie / August 23, 2006 11:33 PM PDT

Global warming!

Ice age is coming!!

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So are the winds
by marinetbryant / August 24, 2006 12:40 AM PDT

Caused by global warming? Like a jigsaw puzzle, people try to proclaim the picture is complete when a lot of the pieces are missing. Thomas Sowell wrote an interesting article about studies, facts and statistics. The end result usually jives with the view of the people paying for it. He even tried to corraborate some data in one study (not global warming) and was denied access to the data!

Tom

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Speaking of hurricanes, Dave...
by J. Vega / August 24, 2006 3:46 AM PDT

Speaking of hurricanes and your mentioning that you lived on the gulf coast, I have a question, Dave.
There has been a lot of talk about rebuilding New Orleans on the Forum, and some people have said that it should not be rebuilt. Considering that Galveston was almost destroyed by a Cat 4 hurricane in 1900 and the possibility of a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane is a real possibility in the future, if such were to happen what's your opinion on rebuilding Galveston as opposed to your opinion of rebuilding New Orleans?

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I recall when Rita was on course for Galveston ...
by Evie / August 24, 2006 3:51 AM PDT

... seeing various reports about their flood wall, the rapid development further up (or down, don't recall) from the area protected by said wall, the wall having subsided, etc.

I wonder, has anything been done to shore this up?

Evie Happy

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Hurricane season calmer than predicted
by jmhal / August 23, 2006 10:25 AM PDT

that is quite an understatement compared to the doomsday scenarios they were throwing around last year.

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Just looked it up ...
by Evie / August 23, 2006 11:04 AM PDT

... it was one year ago today when Katrina formed. That's "K" for Katrina, we're talking about "Debby" with a "D" right now.

Time to rethink formulating public policy based on questionable predictions of weather or climate.

Now of course, if we have an overactive September, we'll be back to the doomsday scenarios. Sad

Evie Happy

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The scare monger scientists
by duckman / August 23, 2006 11:16 AM PDT
In reply to: Just looked it up ...

(who make a living from all of this) will downgrade what qualifies for a hurricane to make it fit heir projections or FUDGE the numbers !!

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Nah! I'm sure all cooling is 100% expected and anticipated
by Kiddpeat / August 23, 2006 11:42 AM PDT

in the global warming theory. It's a theory just like evolution. It CAN'T be disproven, because it can explain any eventuality. I'll bet the printing machines are already getting hot cranking out the revised theory.

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(NT) (NT) Bush got the message and called off the dogs. ;-)
by Steven Haninger / August 23, 2006 10:28 AM PDT
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Who said this is
by Dan McC / August 23, 2006 11:32 AM PDT

connected to global warming?

Dan Happy

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Al Gore ...
by Evie / August 23, 2006 11:45 AM PDT
In reply to: Who said this is

... Dave Konkel, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Robert Kennedy Jr. ... the list is endless.

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Who said
by marinetbryant / August 23, 2006 11:51 AM PDT
In reply to: Who said this is

Warm sea surface temperatures off the northwest coast of Europe correlate quite strongly with warm sea surface temperatures across the entire North Atlantic Ocean. A warm North Atlantic Ocean indicates that the thermohaline circulation is likely stronger than normal, the subtropical high near the Azores is weaker than normal and consequently trade wind strength across the Atlantic is also reduced. Weaker trade winds induce less upwelling which keeps the tropical Atlantic warmer than normal. This pattern tends to persist throughout the spring and summer implying a warmer tropical Atlantic during the hurricane season which is an enhancing factor for developing tropical waves.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/april2006/

Will global warming increase the frequency or intensity of hurricanes in the future?

Just about everyone is now aware of climate change, so when an extreme weather event occurs, it is not unusual for people to ask if it is the result of global warming. Because of the link between higher ocean temperatures and hurricanes, there is speculation that hurricanes will increase in frequency or intensity in a warmer world, with higher wind speeds and greater precipitation. As stated above, the frequency of hurricanes has not increased on average over the long term. However, scientists believe that global warming will result in more intense hurricanes, as increasing sea surface temperatures provide energy for storm intensification. An MIT study published recently in Nature provides the first data analysis indicating that tropical storms are indeed becoming more powerful over time.

Higher ocean temperatures may also influence the tracks of hurricanes, increasing the likelihood of hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean or making landfall on the U.S. east coast. Although his phenomenon is not very well understood, a track of unusually deep and warm water appears to have led Katrina directly to the Gulf Coast when it struck Louisiana and Mississippi.

http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm

Tom

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(NT) (NT) Thanks.
by Dan McC / August 25, 2006 9:41 AM PDT
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Random variation ....
by Bill Osler / August 23, 2006 12:33 PM PDT

When the data support your hypothesis, it's evidence. When the data don't support your hypothesis this time around it's experimental error, random noise, or whatever.

It happens on both sides of the debate.

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Most global warming skeptics ...
by Evie / August 23, 2006 12:43 PM PDT
In reply to: Random variation ....

... are just that, and skeptical of the contribution that humans add with burning fossil fuels. Most acknowledge that the earth may indeed be warming and point to various evidences that explain it (sunspot activity, Mars appears to be in a warming cycle, etc.) rather than try to prove that it is not.

The amount of inconvenient evidence that doesn't fit the global warming models far outweighs that which does fit. The underlying science in the climatology field is largely sound. It's the interpretation and implementation by politicians where the junk science comes in Sad

Evie Happy

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(NT) (NT) I don't think they really even have a clue.
by caktus / August 23, 2006 7:46 PM PDT
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My favorite is the probabilities ...
by Evie / August 23, 2006 11:39 PM PDT

... cited for various things compared to the "average probabilities" of the past. There is no way to prove these wrong or right, even comparing to actual incidence data, so they seem serve no real purpose except to alarm.

I thought the result of the Redskins game prior to the election was supposed to mean Kerry would win. Lots of this stuff strikes me as no more accurate or based on full understanding of science than that correlation/prediction.

Evie Happy

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[My] favorite...
by caktus / August 24, 2006 8:14 AM PDT

When I was a kid, each morning while waiting for the school bus in front of KYA AM radio in San Francisco the weather man would stand looking out a big plate glass window while giving the weather report. He would announce wether it was sunny, raining, cloudy, etc. This fella garnered a lot of respect in the community because he was always right.B-)

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Another hocus-pocus with stats.
by marinetbryant / August 25, 2006 9:17 AM PDT
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