There are three basic types of CD and DVD discs?ROM, R, and RW and RAM?each use a different data layer material: molded aluminum, organic dye, or phase-changing film, respectively. Deterioration of this material is the primary cause for disc degradation and, ultimately, ?end of life? for the disc, assuming proper physical handling.
Environmental factors can affect the rate of disc degradation. In each of the three basic disc types, environmental forces will degrade the data layer much faster than the polycarbonate substrate layer (the clear plastic that makes up most of the disc). Because degradation of the data layer will render the disc useless well before the polycarbonate begins to deteriorate, the relative degradation rate for the polycarbonate layer is not used for life expectancy considerations.
Physical mishandling of the disc is usually the cause of polycarbonate
layer damage. The polycarbonate may also flex or bend if stored for a long period of time in a nonvertical position.
So what is the life expectancy of a disc? First, we must define life expectancy. For most users, it means the length of time for which the disc remains usable. But that implies some acceptable amount of degradation.
How much and what type of degradation is acceptable?
With CDs and DVDs, the user does not notice early degradation because the error detection and correction capability built into the system corrects a certain number of errors. The user notices a problem
only when the error correction coding is unable to fully correct the errors.
One method for determining end of life for a disc is based on the number of errors on a disc before the error correction occurs. The chance of disc failure increases with the number of errors, but it is impossible to define the number of errors in a disc that will absolutely cause a performance problem (minor or catastrophic) because it depends on the number of errors left, after error correction, and their distribution within the data. When the number of errors (before error correction) on a disc increases to a certain level, the chance of disc failure, even if small, can be deemed unacceptable and thus signal the disc?s end of life.
Manufacturers tend to use this premise to estimate media longevity.
They test discs by using accelerated aging methodologies with controlled extreme temperature and humidity influences over a relatively short period of time. However, it is not always clear how a manufacturer interprets its measurements for determining a disc?s end of life. Among the manufacturers that have done testing, there is consensus that, UNDER RECOMMENDED STORAGE CONDITIONS, CD-R, DVD-R, and DVD+R discs should have a life expectancy of 100 to 200 years or more; CD-RW, DVD-RW, DVD+RW, and DVD-RAM discs should have a life expectancy of 25 years or more. Little information is available for CD-ROM and DVD-ROM discs (including audio and video), resulting in an increased level of uncertainty for their life expectancy. Expectations vary from 20 to 100 years for these discs.
So for a quick 'rule of thumb', under your typical 'average storage conditions' shelf life for a CD or DVD (-+R or -+RW) shelf life should be roughtly 25 years.
Regarding CD-ROM and DVD-ROM (molded aluminum--in other words, the ones you BUY from a store, and not burn yourself), based on the research I've done, they can last a few centuries, as long as they're well taken care of.
So if you wish to have your CD/DVD data outlive you, have them professionally aluminum molded!