General discussion

Computer Modeling ...

Aug 20, 2007 12:03PM PDT
?There?s a reason why one should be extremely wary of the computer models that are cited by the endless doomsday predictions of Al Gore, the UN?s International Panel on Climate Change, and all the other advocates of ?global warming.? The reason is clouds. Computer models simply cannot provide for the constant variability of clouds, so they ignore them. In a July issue of The Economist an article called ?Grey-Sky thinking? was subtitled, ?Without understanding clouds, understanding the climate is hard. And clouds are the least understood part of the atmosphere.? Since the increasingly rabid claims of Earth?s destruction from rising temperatures depend on computer modeling, how can they be regarded as accurate if they must largely exempt or deliberately manipulate the impact of clouds? How can you make predictions, whether it?s a week or a decade from now, if you haven?t a clue why clouds do what they do??
?Alan Caruba

And clouds are just one small facet in the inaccuracy of current modeling techniques and capabilities.

When one sees Jupiter, Mars, Pluto and other planets where man doesn?t even have a chance to fart out some methane or where no SUVs have ever roamed, one must truly question Algore?s ?global warming? panic. It does sell books though and it makes the likes of p**** l****** c****** like Al rich and more capable of taking down America?which must be his ultimate goal.?
?Suffolk, Virginia

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Comments
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But does it sell...
Aug 20, 2007 1:01PM PDT

But does it sell carbon indulgences? Oops - sorry about that, Martin Luther, I meant carbon credits (grin).

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Carbon 'indulgences' are a favorite new Kool-Aid flavor
Aug 20, 2007 2:31PM PDT

and we all know what the lab report had to say about that Kool-Aid sample.

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Links to....
Aug 20, 2007 11:00PM PDT

.......... the comments, as they are in bold face and included in quotation marks, I assume they were copied from somewhere. Thus credit to the authors is required. It is also helpful helpful for members to know the sources.

I could not find one by passing my cursor over the text, either.

Angeline
Speakeasy Moderator

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Alan Caruba = P.T. Barnum
Aug 20, 2007 11:38PM PDT

This guy gets paid to make such comments

Alan Caruba

Alan Caruba is a public relations advisor, a vitriolic critic of environmentalism and founder of the National Anxiety Center.

His personal website boasts that his clients have included or currently include "chemical and pharmaceutical companies, think tanks, trade associations, service providers, publishers, authors, and others. Since the 1990s, he has been the public relations counselor for the New Jersey Pest Management Association. For ten years, he served as the Director of Communications for the American Policy Center." [1]

A staunch conservative, he has also strongly supported the Bush administration's war with Iraq and advocates similar military action against other countries in the Middle East, including Syria. [2]



Follow the link to his self named site and you will see this message...

Everything you need to know about public relations is available from The Caruba Organization or, more precisely, from Alan Caruba, a veteran public relations counselor with three decades of experience. For a single public relations project or fulltime service, this is where you want to start!

along with links to such environmentally significant subjects such as...

The Growing Power of Internet-Driven Public Relations
Link here to:

The National Anxiety Center
Noted think tank on media-driven scare campaigns

and...

Ten Secrets of PR Success... Why Your PR Program Isn't Working... Top 10 Most Common PR Mistakes... Crisis PR: Most are Unprepared... Email News Release Guidelines... Word of Mouth and Your Website:"Referral Blast" Promotes Traffic... How to Spot Hype

To borrow a phrase Edward just used... here is a "new Kool-Aid flavor" for us to try. I must admit the fellow can't be accused of junk science because he's as much a scientist as Al Gore is. Wink

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ALGORE = P.T. Barnum
Aug 20, 2007 11:49PM PDT

Can certainly apply to him as well

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I think I already said that in my post...
Aug 21, 2007 12:30AM PDT
"I must admit the fellow can't be accused of junk science because he's as much a scientist as Al Gore is."

... so what is your point? Or do you just enjoy repeating me?

Oh... and once again, I would point out that the first reference to Al Gore was made by a global warming denier rather than someone praising his leadership and knowledge of science.

Wink
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Yes, I searched on him, and also "Suufolk Virginia"
Aug 20, 2007 11:53PM PDT

Of course, the "Suffolk, Virginia" comments were unsearchable, for obvious reasons. "The Canuba Organization" is in South Organge, NJ

All I could find about him is that he is in public relations and what he has written, and his web sites, etc. I did notice he appears to use some blogs as sources.

Angeline
Speakeasy Moderator

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A minor detail....
Aug 21, 2007 12:29AM PDT

........ but he needs to have his web site's copyright date updated, as it now has "2006".

All material

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Needs copyright updated?
Aug 23, 2007 5:26AM PDT

Not unless some specific item has changed since then and then only that item needs updating because the rest already is current.

Take for example this page http://www.caruba.com/tenmistakes.htm which it can be noted has a copyright of 2005. It was incorporated into the content made available in 2006 but was not itself altered.

Click on the Start button then the Run option then type in CMD. In the command prompt window that opens what is the date of copyright that you see Angeline?

His site however is NOT where the quote came from nor is it to be located anywhere on his site (although there is a link to the National Anxiety Center and the material can indeed be found there). The quote can be found via many sources by clicking here on this Google search:
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%22Alan+Caruba%22+with+%22The+reason+is+clouds%22

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I knew you would be the first to break...
Aug 21, 2007 1:36AM PDT

... what small moratorium we had established.

First off, Ed, prove that I was appealing to feelings or prejudices rather than intellect. Is the guy a scientist? I think I proved he is not by listing the sources that Edward conveniently failed to supply. Why did Edward not supply links? Because the guy's credentials make him as reliable as Al Gore (which I also said).

As for Dyson? Yes, he is a scientist. A theoretical physicist and mathematician... but not a climatologist. The article which I read in its entirety last week was very entertaining. When I raised some questions about it last week, you either missed my comments or ignored them, so why you want to rehash it now, I'm not sure.

But let us take the WHOLE introduction into context rather than cherry pick.

HERETICAL THOUGHTS ABOUT SCIENCE AND SOCIETY
by Freeman Dyson


My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.


First off... I like this guy. He thinks outside the box as I try to do. He tells you in the title that he is being a devils advocate, asking for the consideration of heretical thoughts. Next...he admits he is no climatologist and says that his concerns deal with computer modeling. I can accept this as valid critical considerations from a man who has given time to exploring the subject.

CAN YOU SAY THE SAME ABOUT CARUBA ?

Now, if one goes on to read the complete article, one can see that Dyson's objective in the article is to raise doubts about all sorts of conventional wisdom. No where does he say... "this is the reality". No, his intention is to shake up the preconceived notions of future stability whether it be climate change, or his prediction of the US becoming a less than dominant super power by 2070. In short, his article is about challenging all sorts of preconceived notions. The only thing I can ask you, Ed, is if you are going to cite him as extremely credible when it comes to his doubts of climate modeling, then do you also credit his predictions of the US taking a back seat to other countries in the near future?

One other thing intrigued me here was Dyson's comment... "It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models."

I made exactly this point back in April when I pointed out that outdoor adventurers such as Yvon Chouinard, had reported noticeably degrading environmental conditions of wildness area made over decades of first hand observation. Your position, Ed, was that these first hand observers were not qualified to make scientific observations... "If the obvious evidence before our own eyes really was obvious, there would be no disagreement, would there. But it is NOT obvious."

My opinion is that you argue for all sides to be heard, while cherry picking the information that supports your agenda. I would love for you to change my mind about this, but providing Dyson's paper as if it was proof against climate modeling rather than his self admitted aim of raising doubt, does not encourage me. In short, I see your point, but I feel the motivations for your POV are strictly economic in nature rather than a desire to see the science proven right or wrong.

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Two htinbgs...
Aug 21, 2007 3:12AM PDT
First, there is no moratorium. I have not agreed to anything and )I have nbnot "broken" anything. It's all in your mind. I will post whenever and wherever I want to, as always, period.

Second, your reply to Ed was just a list of things about Alan Caruba, clearly meant to show he is not a valid source, which I merely pointed out. And you finished with "he's as much a scientist as Al Gore is." So I point out that you did not address what he actually said, and that Freeman Dyson, who IS a scientist has said much the same. That is why I am "rehashing" it (a nonsensical comment of there ever was one.)

What you think of Dyson's opinion is meaningless to me. Are YOU a Climatologoist? Are you a scientist of any kind? No, didn't think so. And I didn't reply to you before because frankly, it's the same old horse hockey and not really something I needed to comment on. Byyyyeee!!
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Nice.
Aug 21, 2007 3:30AM PDT

"What you think of Dyson's opinion is meaningless to me. Are YOU a Climatologoist? Are you a scientist of any kind? No, didn't think so. And I didn't reply to you before because frankly, it's the same old horse hockey and not really something I needed to comment on. Byyyyeee!!"

You cite a source but won't discuss it...

I'm not a scientist and that is significant in your argument, but the fact that you are not a scientist has no bearing on the conversation...

Same old "horse hockey" is supposed to be a civil, and acceptable comment...

"Byyyyeee!!" is supposed to be a reasonable, and an adult sign off rather than a display of your contempt for me.


Sigh... same behavior from Ed... just a different day.

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If you don't like it..
Aug 21, 2007 3:52AM PDT

do what you said you were going to do...don't read or reply to any of my posts.

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*
Aug 21, 2007 4:01AM PDT

It's not that I don't like it... I just enjoy pointing out your behavior for what it is.

Happy

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Usually if a person says he is going to do a certain thing
Aug 21, 2007 4:24AM PDT

we assume he will do it. That's called "being a man of your word." But I guess the urge to post attacks and accusations overrides that.

Noted.

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"attacks and accusations" ???
Aug 21, 2007 4:39AM PDT

Where on this post have I attacked or accused anyone?

You picked up the shovel and started digging the hole yourself, Ed. Don't blame someone else for your own actions. All I have done is pointed out your own statements... word for word.

Now is about the time you accuse me of being the Svengali of distortions though, isn't it.

Feel free to have the last word.

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RE: 'Where on this post have I attacked or accused anyone?'
Aug 23, 2007 4:53AM PDT

Why don't you start at your very first post in the thread and go in chronological order - you should see all of them that way.

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(NT) This sub thread is closed. !!!
Aug 21, 2007 5:03AM PDT
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I wish to point out that Edward ODaniel...
Aug 23, 2007 6:34AM PDT

... along with some other folk are increasingly ignoring the closing of sub-threads in order to make drive by rebuttals.

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hello
Aug 23, 2007 6:36AM PDT

I did that the other day, my problem was that I had not scrolled down far enough to see that the thread had been closed, maybe a possibility of that being the case here?

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if it happened once? Maybe.
Aug 23, 2007 6:55AM PDT

However, it has happened several times this week... and this is the second time on this thread alone.

I'm just pointing out the facts.

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It's really just a software problem.
Aug 23, 2007 7:31AM PDT

If you use the display mode which shows the text of all messages, you cannot see a downstream post about the thread being closed. That's especially true if you use the 'Next Unread' option. You see a post and respond. Then, you see the close message.

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Convenient ...
Aug 23, 2007 4:51AM PDT

I supplied the name of the person I quoted and attributed the quote to him. Nowhere did I claim he was a scientist (nor does he himself even hint at such on his own site) and his quote didn't claim anything except that CLOUDS are inconvenient and thus IGNORED in computer weather modeling. A weakness that can't be simply ignored any more than condensation in the gas tank can be ignored if a gasoline engine runs rough - may be CONVENIENT to ignore it but any troubleshooting done without considering it is rather incomplete.

You can ignore the message and indulge in tossing out odious red herrings all you want but after tossing them in the trash the truth of the matter at hand about computer weather modeling remains - CLOUDS are not taken into consideration.

That Kool-Aid you like sends a message (obtainable via lab analysis).

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Did I say you claimed him to be a scientist?
Aug 23, 2007 6:39AM PDT

No... I pointed out that the guy is paid to be a global warming denier. Big difference between what you claimed I did, and what actually happened.

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Being paid ...
Aug 23, 2007 7:24AM PDT

to cite facts doesn't alther the facts nor have any other meaning than that the man profits from the junk science spouted by others by pointing out how and why the junk science is junk science - flawed methodology.

Algore profits from his own "carbon credits" but I haven't seen you making any point of mentioning that.

He is actually being paid for public relations work but unlike some has the ethics to not accept commissions from the junk science groups.

What I "claimed" you did stands because you did indeed do it.

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RE: Links to ...
Aug 23, 2007 5:08AM PDT

Because of previous comments by certain people who "don't approve" of certain sites (and who have deleted posts simply because of such links) all quotes will not be linked Angeline but I most certainly did attribute them to their source. Verification can easily be done via a search of the source attributed.

Some quotes may need amplification (such as "?Suffolk, Virginia") but one assumes that if curious enough one can search through many reader comments and letters to the editor. A specific phrase from the quote coupled with the location would get you there.

Credit to the authors and originators of the qouted materials was conspicuously present Angeline.

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Too many people need
Aug 23, 2007 6:41AM PDT

to be spoon fed.

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FRankly I dont
Aug 21, 2007 9:34PM PDT

understand what the fuss is all about. It is a given that climate variances are a natural phenonom, It is also a given,whether some like it or not,that the pouring of millions of tons of junk into our atmosphere can influence these natural cycles. So just from a standpoint of "why take a chance on making it worse" and it is to humankind's benefit to stop using fossil fuels regardless of the temporary inconvenience why do you object to that goal? O I see you object to the politics. So why not just say so instead of muddying the waters?

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Well said.
Aug 22, 2007 1:43AM PDT

And in a civil tone.

It's also starting to look like issues re: global warming could be another topic that cannot be discussed here without using it as an "end around" to insert politics.

Angeline
Speakeasy Moderator

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