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Question

Commodities and Deflation

by Aug 13, 2015 2:01PM PDT

Here are 3 ETF's (exchange traded funds) which track the price movements of the underlying precious metal. Gold, Silver, and Copper over last 4 years.

http://glenburniemd.net/CNET/Copper-Gold-Silver.png

Here's a chart for crude oil over last 5 years.

http://www.glenburniemd.net/CNET/5yrOilPrices2015.png

Here's a combined fund based on soybean, corn, wheat and sugar. Also going down. Note the high selloff recently of this fund's shares.

http://glenburniemd.net/CNET/AgriculturalFund-TAGS.png

Energy, Agriculture, Metals, all commodities, all going down a lot, all indicators of a Deflationary Cycle started. Here's a good site to check out more Commodities.


what about Transportation, how much goods is being moved?

It was doing well, up till this year, and since then it's been dropping. Here's an ETF which tracks the dow jones transportation average.

To put it mildly, things are not looking so good right now. Stock volume on Dow is about 40% of what it was 5 years ago. Volume indicator is at bottom of chart. The huge surge in stock prices was fueled by low to no interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#{%22range%22:%2210y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Discussion is locked

26 Posts
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Answer
Not that simple.
by Forum moderator Aug 13, 2015 2:43PM PDT

Those commodities don't stand on their own. Mining copper for example uses fuel such as oil and gas products. As oil and nat gas dropped the cost to produce dropped to. So it's far more complicated than it seems.

Same goes for AG products.

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Break the machine?
by theNetnest Aug 13, 2015 3:10PM PDT

Just imagine what would happen if a 1859 CME would hit today.
Nothing wireless works which means anything controlled by wireless is silent.
We have built a machine with fragile dependencies.
Want to totally break the financial machine?
Release massive limitless free energy to all Americans.
I could go on how many trillions of $$ in revenue the government depends upon from fossil fuels by production, shipment, sales, exports, research and impact studies, bla, bla, bla.
There's even a tax on pumping it out of the ground.

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Luckily we are heading into a quieter sun phase
by James Denison Aug 13, 2015 8:47PM PDT
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True, and all those complications are going down
by James Denison Aug 13, 2015 8:42PM PDT

Hand in hand?

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Answer
Yeah? Who Called That One Before It Happened?
by Aug 26, 2015 1:31PM PDT

See that drop over 1000 points the other morning? I feel like a prophet of olden days, LOL. The world markets are still in a meltdown.

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RE: Who Called That One Before It Happened?
by JP Bill Aug 26, 2015 1:44PM PDT

The Chinese?

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RE: The world markets are still in a meltdown.
by JP Bill Aug 26, 2015 1:54PM PDT

DOW UP 617....Meltdown?

You didn't "predict" the meltdown.....You helped caused it by "panic selling"?

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Ho-Hum, here's 5 day chart
by James Denison Aug 26, 2015 5:19PM PDT
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RE: then you 'll see more downside.
by JP Bill Aug 26, 2015 7:06PM PDT

AND if you wait long enough...you'll see upside.

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so what?
by James Denison Aug 27, 2015 1:50AM PDT

you didn't exist, then you were born, you live, you die, and then you don't exist anymore. No point to it?

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RE: so what?
by JP Bill Aug 27, 2015 4:00AM PDT

another one of your "prophecies"?

you didn't exist, then you were born, you live, you die, and then you don't exist anymore. No point to it?

No point to trying to take credit for "predicting something"

Yeah? Who Called That One Before It Happened?........... I feel like a prophet of olden days,

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As usual, you missed the point
by James Denison Aug 27, 2015 2:23PM PDT

Or coming to the fork in the road you described them as "left and more left".

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AND you missed mine
by JP Bill Aug 27, 2015 7:29PM PDT

You claim to be a prophet...I claim you're not.

There is nothing wrong per se with predicting a market correction or even a crash. To the contrary, both mild and severe corrections are the inevitable fate of any market in any age. See, for example, a study by researchers at New York University and Boston University. In other words, sooner or later the stock market WILL crash. Even by the time you read this article, a correction may already be in process. And when it does, numerous market prophets will doubtless claim credit, pointing to some recent or not-so-recent prediction as evidence of their prescience.

But statistically speaking, what is the substance of such a prediction when it is repeated over and over again? Even a stopped clock is precisely correct twice a day.

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Timing is Everthing in the Market
by James Denison Aug 28, 2015 2:02AM PDT

Mine was right on! Ha ha ha!!

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RE: Mine was right on! Ha ha ha!!
by JP Bill Aug 28, 2015 6:06AM PDT

Sure it was, if believing that helps you sleep at night....

I'd rather have evidence of your predictions BEFORE they happen, than claims of predictions AFTER events happen.

Timing is Everything in the Market

No argument there, YOU have the uncanny ability to predict the past.

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your timeline is off
by James Denison Aug 28, 2015 10:39AM PDT

check it. Sorry if this upsets you. Well, not really.

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THIS is an example of a "prediction"
by JP Bill Aug 28, 2015 12:58PM PDT
Billionaires Dumping Stocks; Stock Market Crash on the Way

There is "evidence" of their financial transactions. Which adds weight to their "predictions".

Unfortunately for you....we have no access to your financial transactions.

You could have just posted a link to the same article as I did and just said..."Yeah...Me to.


I feel like a prophet of olden days,
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I never said I was making a play on it
by James Denison Aug 28, 2015 1:15PM PDT

Only that I pointed out it was time for a crash. So, again you stumble.

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So YOUR claim of
by JP Bill Aug 28, 2015 1:50PM PDT
Timing is Everything in the Market

Mine was right on! Ha ha ha!!

Should read

Timing is Everything in the Market

Although I'm not in the market! Ha ha ha!!
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I never said I wasn't either.
by James Denison Aug 28, 2015 5:40PM PDT

this is too easy. Devil

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RE: Just wait till the Federal Reserve
by JP Bill Aug 28, 2015 6:12AM PDT
Just wait till the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates,

Yeah...Just wait for THAT to happen.

Look deep into YOUR crystal ball...tell everyone the exact date THAT will happen.
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I'll take a guess if you will.
by James Denison Aug 28, 2015 5:42PM PDT

I pick October 2, after closing of market on that friday.

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Too late you've already taken a guess.
by JP Bill Aug 28, 2015 7:41PM PDT

And if you're right....I'll say

Lucky guess.

A lucky guesser...but no prophet.

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earnings, beige book
by James Denison Aug 29, 2015 9:06AM PDT

Earnings report on Sept 2
Beige book on Sept 4
Beige book on Oct 14

At some point the Fed WILL raise interest rates. I think they will avoid doing it in september both for recent events and historical ones as well.

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I predict
by JP Bill Aug 29, 2015 10:11AM PDT

They will announce an increase in interest rates after they hold a meeting and they will explain their logic in increasing interest rates after that meeting.

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when?
by James Denison Aug 29, 2015 9:07PM PDT

when? waiting....

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