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Any bets on where Jeanne is headed?

by Bill Osler / September 17, 2004 1:28 PM PDT

I noticed a few minutes ago that the weather sites I use are showing rather divergent paths for hurricane Jeanne.

weather.com shows a path that curves out over the western Atlantic.

accuweather.com shows a path that goes over central Florida.

wunderground.com shows a track that looks a lot like the one at weather.com

Two of the three sites show routes that would be good for the US, but not so good for some of the islands in the western Atlantic. I have not yet figured out if any of these sites does better than the others at the predictions.

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Re: Any bets on where Jeanne is headed?
by John Robie / September 17, 2004 1:41 PM PDT

The www.weather.com has a satellite TV channel that I have been watching for the past 7 years. They also give special programs on past hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, lightning, etc...

Don't recall them missing the predictions on the paths of hurricanes in the past. They keep in close touch with the Govt. aircraft that fly through them. Haven't watched in several days, but saw their prediction before Jeanne hit Puerto Rico as eventually hitting the southern east coast of Florida and generally up the east coast of Florida.

JR

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hahahahah....just woke up and punchy
by TONI H / September 17, 2004 9:49 PM PDT

The power here in western VA has mostly been out for the last day and a half due to high winds and rain on this mountaintop. It came back on last night around 6:30PM EST after being out since 2AM....and within two hours it was back out again until around 2:30AM this morning.

I just woke up with winds howling like crazy and beating hell out of my willow trees in front of the computer room bay window, but power is still here and no rain coming down.

BUT......I got in here and read your post, John and what my brain actually absorbed was:

>>>Don't recall them missing the predictions on the paths of hurricanes in the past. They keep in close touch with the God.>>>>> instead of Govt. and I had to read it three times before my eyes focused correctly and saw the right word. lol Too much reading yesterday and last night by oil lamp.......

As for Jeanne....that happens to be my middle name, but mine is pronounced the French way, and if she shows up here, I'm kicking her ***. I don't have any of the problems the southern states have had but I'm sick of this already.

TONI

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Re: hahahahah....just woke up and punchy
by John Robie / September 18, 2004 5:03 AM PDT

Gee Toni, hope the wind and rain didn't destroy anything of yours. I have a portable gas powered generator, but it is rarely ever used except to loan out to relatives that may need it when their power goes out for a while.

As I recall the TV Weather Channel did predict Ivan would pass through parts of southern western VA.

I haven't received Gods predictions on hurricanes paths yet, but who knows.

Hang in there.

John

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Re: Any bets on where Jeanne is headed?
by Roger NC / September 17, 2004 11:18 PM PDT

Don't forget NOAA.com, although their predicted paths have been tracking with weather.com last two hurricanes.

Accuweather forcast Ivan to stay west of the Appliachains and move through faster up to just before it made landfall then drastically shorten their time prediction. I was hoping they were right actually.

Weather.com as far as I have seen now only gives the cone of probabilities, with no attempt to predict an eyepath. My assumption is the center of the cone is the eye prediction, and that is approximately what NOAA shows with roughtly the same probability region as weather.com.

I'm hoping no more come to the mainland this year, but who knows.

RogerNC

click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

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Re: Any bets on where Jeanne is headed?
by C1ay / September 18, 2004 1:14 AM PDT

It would be hard to say at this point. So far I haven't seen any organization in the storm to indicate that it's going to amount to much.

Like yourself, I often question the predictions and try to see what my own analysis indicates is the best model to trust.

I begin at the National Weather Service and select Hurricanes from the left nav bar. On the hurricanes page is the latest adviory and a link to current maps and charts showing their predictions. On the left is a link to the current satellite imagery. I like to look at the current Atlantic IR image and loop it and the current visible loop from the GOES floater (1 or 2) currently tracking the storm I'm following. The loops will give you an accurate view of the current direction.

Next I factor in the analysis at the Naval Research Laboratory. Pick your storm on the left for their latest path prediction and satellite image.

Next I go to the BoatU.S. Hurricane Center. Pick your storm and you get an assortment of charts and picks. I like the spaghetti model there because it reflects all of the computer models based on the paths of past hurricanes and the current steering currents. The average of these models usually reflects the prediction at the National Hurricane Center.

Finally I go to the hurricane site at Terrapin Associates. It is a convenient place to view the storm tracking plot as a whole. Just pick your storm and select "Storm Track Plot" on the right. I like looking at the whole path sometimes to average out the little turns a storm makes. A good example is Ivan's path near Jamaica. It looked like it was turning hard to go across Jamaica but really it was just a wiggle in the overall path. Ivan's been removed from their main page nbow that it's over so you'll have to search it by name in their "Archives" section to view it now.

So far it looks to me like it will soon head due north. Aside from that though I don't necessarily agree with the left hook predicted in some models. The current Atlantic IR loop shows a front flowing off the U.S. coast which would seem to me that it will steer Jeanne to sea. Then again, I am not a meteorologist.

It also looks to me like Karl is getting rather organized. Let's hope it goes north as well.

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(NT) (NT) Re: Karl: So far so good. Not moving our way.
by Bill Osler / September 18, 2004 12:08 PM PDT
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Re: Any bets on where Jeanne is headed?
by Dell_Dude / September 18, 2004 3:44 AM PDT

I've got three dollars on that it fizzles out before it affects the U.S...

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(NT) (NT) Looks like you may be right.
by Bill Osler / September 18, 2004 12:06 PM PDT
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Which one?
by James Denison / September 18, 2004 5:34 AM PDT

Jeanne1 or Jeanne2? Looking at the satellite imagery, it would appear the storm has split into two separate ones.

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Re: where Jeanne is headed -- Look's like anyone's guess
by Dave Konkel [Moderator] / September 18, 2004 12:58 PM PDT

Hi, Dr. Bill.

The latest computer models all show it doing some sort of loop over the next five days, and where it goes after that is a mystery. Hope the Dell Dude is right!

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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Re: where Jeanne is headed -- Look's like anyone's guess
by Roger NC / September 21, 2004 9:49 AM PDT

And now it may well be heading for NC drat it.

NOAA prediction though Sunday. Of course, everyone agrees it's unpredictable right now, so pull the handle and watch the wheels spin.


RogerNC

click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

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(NT) (NT) Don't forget Karl and Lisa!
by Dan McC / September 20, 2004 1:18 AM PDT
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Re: Karl and Lisa!
by Dave Konkel [Moderator] / September 20, 2004 2:00 PM PDT

Hi, Dan.

Not to worry about Karl, but Lisa may be a problem...

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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