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Academics predict sizable win for Bush

by Del McMullen / July 1, 2004 4:10 AM PDT

Relax DK, we don't need a cardiac event because of a headline.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict elections President Bush is on his way to a sizable win.

http://tinyurl.com/2t2ht

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Well shoot, that's 20 bucks down the drain
by Josh K / July 1, 2004 4:16 AM PDT

Just made a donation to the DNC.

Wink

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Ha ha heh heh
by Del McMullen / July 1, 2004 5:02 AM PDT

Way to go, Josh.

Not registered with either party, for reasons sound to
myself, but regularly get mail from both major parties,
extolling how they note that I have been supportive in
the past, and wondering why they haven't heard from me
at this critical time, and pleading for $$$ donations.

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Don't worry, Josh; Terry McAuliffe has to manage...
by Paul C / July 1, 2004 5:14 AM PDT

...Kerry's 2004 defeat so that he and his boss and benefactor can get started on getting the boss/benefactor elected in 2008. The long term goal, IMO, is the 2008 Clinton Restoration in the person of Miss Hillaruh...

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(NT) Should read 'boss/benefactor's wife elected in 2008'...
by Paul C / July 1, 2004 5:16 AM PDT

.

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20th Century Presidential Re-Election Losses...
by Blake Cook / July 1, 2004 6:04 AM PDT

I find this statement in the link very interesting. Has everyone forgotten about Bush 41? Am I missing something here???

"On the other hand, the party in the White House usually has a favorable outcome after one term, a complex calculation that works in Bush's favor. Jimmy Carter was the only candidate in the 20th century who was defeated while seeking his party's second consecutive term."

Statements such as these makes one question any conclusions from the rest of the article. Even after Kerry is inaugurated as our 44th US President in January 2005, I doubt that these forecasting groups or their wild claims will go away...

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Oops!
by Josh K / July 1, 2004 6:15 AM PDT

I can't tell from the way it's written whether it was the "academics" or the author of the article who forgot about Bush I. If the latter, it's probably an honest mistake. If the former, I'd start wondering about the rest of their analysis too.

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Betting The Ranch...
by Blake Cook / July 1, 2004 6:54 AM PDT
In reply to: Oops!
I'd start wondering about the rest of their analysis too. - Josh Katz

Apparently they agree with you...

"It's an intellectual exercise, and I wouldn't bet the farm on these forecasts," Abramowitz said.

I'm not planning on betting the ranch on any of their "predictions" either. November is a long ways away, but GW is well on his way to repeating his daddy's history. It will probably take him a long time to figure out where he went wrong from his ranch in Crawford, unless he is foolish enough to bet it on these "predictions"...
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Re: Oops!
by Edward ODaniel / July 1, 2004 2:10 PM PDT
In reply to: Oops!

Hi Josh,

On reading it and reviewing the facts it would appear that what probably happened is either the author or the editor simply dropped the word Democratic from the sentence because Carter was indeed the only Democratic candidate in the 20th century who was defeated while seeking his party's second consecutive term.

Wilson, FDR, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton were the only 20th century Democratic Presidents and all who ran for a second term were reelected--Johnson, the only other single term Democratic President besides Carter did NOT run for a second term.

This group's overall record is pretty good but like Alan Abramowitz I wouldn't "bet the farm" either way. The RNC and GW both got another donation again though.

Happy

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(NT) (NT) Same Academics predicted sizable win for Gore!
by SE Moderators / July 1, 2004 6:37 AM PDT
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(NT) (NT) And they were right! ;-)
by Josh K / July 1, 2004 6:42 AM PDT
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(NT) (NT) Re: And they were right! -- Not sizeable enough :-(
by Dave Konkel [Moderator] / July 1, 2004 1:15 PM PDT
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Hey! DK really BELIEVES in these models.
by Kiddpeat / July 1, 2004 1:06 PM PDT

I'm sure he'll accept it without question now that it's been confirmed by a scientific model.

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He is situational...
by Edward ODaniel / July 1, 2004 2:19 PM PDT

he only believes scientific or academic models and peer evaluated studies if they agree with his politics or agenda.

This one doesn't and although they were admirably close on Clinton They weren't on algore and that is enough to sour him on these particular academics who will soon be referred to as "bushies".

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