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A disturbing, sobering site

I first read (its a long read) this one: http://dieoff.org/page132.htm then I wondered, 'hmm', what is this Home link I see in the upper left-hand corner?

http://dieoff.org/synopsis.htm

More depressing stuff.

According to this, we are going to have to change our thinking a lot, but we will probably have to be forced into doing it by circumstances. SadSad

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Re: A disturbing, sobering site

In reply to: A disturbing, sobering site

Hi, Dragon.

Fifty years from now our descendants will be cursing out short-sigtedness for burning as fuel irreplaceable petroleum resources needed by the chemical and pharmaceutical industries.

-- Dave K, Speakeasy Moderator
click here to email semods4@yahoo.com

The opinions expressed above are my own,
and do not necessarily reflect those of CNET!

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The problem with this kind of analysis it that it's static.

In reply to: A disturbing, sobering site

We've known for decades now that the real world involves dynamic behaviour. That means that things interact with each other in counterintuitive ways. They behave in ways we don't expect and resist our intervention unless we understand the dynamics of the system.

Myself, I expect the price of oil to rise when it becomes scarce. This will choke off its use, and stimulate the development of alternatives. Thus, we will never 'run out' of oil.

Doom and gloom is an age old attitude. Malthus was wrong when he embraced, and, IMO, there is little reason to think that it's true today.

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Re: The problem with this kind of analysis it that it's stat

In reply to: The problem with this kind of analysis it that it's static.

Well I know we are just talking about a mineral here but what comes to mind is the extinction of some animals and plant life which has alreay occured. I would never say we will never run out of oil.

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(NT) (NT) I was thinking the very same thing!

In reply to: Re: The problem with this kind of analysis it that it's stat

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Apples and oranges.

In reply to: (NT) I was thinking the very same thing!

I wasn't going to respond, but with two people saying this...

Obviously, oil is not going to die off due to climate change, loss of habitat, etc. It is theoretically possible, that it could be used up. However, the smaller the reserves the get, the more valuable they will become at least in the short term. As the price of oil rises, other sources of energy will become more competitive, and will attract investors who want to make their use more attractive. As other sources of energy increase in attractiveness, the demand for oil will decline. Thus, the oil will never be 'used up'. It's called a dynamic system whose behaviour changes based on interactions between the component parts.

Who knows, we may wind up driving electric cars fueled by nuclear power plants. Or, it may be hydrogen powered cars.

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Re: Apples and oranges.

In reply to: Apples and oranges.

It talked about cars, some. From reading about hydrogen cars GM and Ford have invested a billion dollars apiece on that. It looks as if theyll have to sell people on the idea of 'filling up' more often than they are used to. But in this article, it said theres no way to get a jet plane to run on anything but the jet fuel they now use. It also looks as if our lives are going to be different in ways we cant guess about.

BTW,To whoever made the remark about the pharmaceutical industry, what does that have to do with oil?

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Re: Apples and oranges.

In reply to: Re: Apples and oranges.

BTW,To whoever made the remark about the pharmaceutical industry, what does that have to do with oil?

Petroleum is used in many products. Some oil derivitives are prominently used in phamaceutical manufacture in the synthesis of organic compounds that would be prohibitively expensive to manufacture from their organic raw materials, as well as in the production of fertilizers, cleaners, clothes, all plastics, and a host of products that's way too long to include here.

The last Shah of Iran was absolutely right when he stated that oil was far too valuable to just burn...
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About the Shah...

In reply to: Re: Apples and oranges.

I think he was a bit more forward-looking that most Arabs. He knew that someday, oil would not be a part of the economy, and he was encouraging growth in other areas.

Thanks for that bit of info on plastics, medicine, and etc.

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A humorous reply

In reply to: A disturbing, sobering site

I also frequent the Guardian Talk forums, at times. I have a similar post there, within one of the strings. Someone suggested this: http://www.theaircar.com/

When another poster asked how we would be powering this contraption, the poster said (paraphrased) "From the national grid! Do I have to do all your thinking for you?"

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