2009 Predictions

Is it lame if I think 2009 is not going to have that many huge announcements? <drink>In these troubled economic times</drink>, perhaps this is going to be a quiet year.

If I had to guess, for now, (and I made this prediction last year, but it didn't really come to fruition), I'd say that green tech comes more to the forefront. With the new macbooks and the failing car companies, maybe we'll se a trend towards being more geo-conscious.

The only other thing I'd wager is more/better broadband coverage... im just worried about more capping...

we'll see...

-dr. karl

2009 - A
The year something terrible happens to cloud computing: "Something happen to GMAIL? No, that's impossible." As soon as everyone has this frame of mind, boom goes the dynamite, and we all get a lesson in redundancy.

2009 - B
Starcraft 2 brings world peace, and no employees are trampled on opening day because if Blizzard is smart, it will be able to be digitally downloaded.

2009 - C
Linux and Open Source lay claim to 10% of enterprise: Let's face it our work computers are getting old. Open Office is getting awesome, and Windows is getting cold. I'm looking for a big push by companies and school in Linux and Open Software.

2009 - D
Verizon will try so hard to push out an Iphone competitor they will get hemorrhoids, and the Blackberry Storm will develop an exploding battery or another such devastating flaw as a result of it's quick release.

2009 - E
Gas Prices will hit record lows, and people will start getting a false sense of security, and I will be able to sell my SUV before prices return to a constant level of $2.50 per gallon.

2009 - F
Microsoft will finally eliminate support for Internet Explorer 6, and IT departments in large companies would finally start to update browser software, but in doing so, the cost of upgrading in man hours would be equivalent to rolling out a new operating system for a few of the companies leading to the implementation of 2009-C (see above)

2009 - G
Thousands of Florida residents will be scammed into buying additions devices to assure their televisions will continue to work.

2009 - H
Twitter is purchased by facebook, twitter fanbase rebels, starts Tweeter and promptly goes bankrupt. Facebook appears to have won, but doesn't get away with changing the architecture, and just plain looses money for the next decade, while supporting the existing style and habits of twitter existing users.

All is well with the cosmos,
BM

Green tech will get more common and hip. It will be regarded by the press as the next big thing and given more time. New administration that says that energy is a top priority up there with national security and the economy. Expect to see interesting things in electric cars and battery technology.

I doubt we've reached the bottom yet, in these troubled times (drink). But I expect the tech industry to do far better than the overall economy, as people will need entertainment and distractions and tech is relatively cheap in capital start up requirements, which is an asset assuming it continues to be hard to get a loan. And people will look for distractions and multi-functional devices to save money on getting a separate GPS device or mp3 player etc and all that (ie, good year for smart phones).

Consumers will keep complaining about the restricted nature of the app store. A future iPhone software update will bring a more open app platform and copy and paste.

My predictions from last year for 2008:

1. Wiis will still be difficult to find, so will non half-***ed games for that platform.
Yep, I called that

2. Touch screen iMac....yeah, not going to happen.
check plus for me

3. DVD will continue to be the dominant physical media format over HD-DVD and BlueRay. Torrent pirates everywhere will continue to laugh at those loyal to a physical format.
I'm awesome

4. Prince will stop being a dumb*** and will allow his likeness and music to be heard and seen everywhere for free. He will then appear at half time of next years Super Bowl and rock our socks off and cure world hunger AT THE SAME TIME!
damn, people are still hungry

5. The Zune will still be a laughable product. Creative Nomad II 4 LIFE!
can I call'em or what?

6. A lesser known game developer will come out with a Guitar Hero like game which will actually require some musical skill and develop that talent.
I believe there is a computer game that does this

7. 3G iPhone. Not all predictions can be funny.
a blind dog could have predicted this

8. No more DRM. Doesn't really matter since everyone who's been on the tubes has already downloaded all the songs that have every existed in the world for free.
ooooh, so close. so close

9. Tiered Internet, Molly goes postal.
meh, 7 outta 10 ain't bad

10. Skynet switches to solid state drives, one step closer to world domination.
Oh it's in the process my friends

1. Windows 7 will be pretty good

2. iPhone will hit 32GB

3. Australian Internet Filter will get canned

4. Blu Ray players under AU$250

5. Zune gets released in Australia

6. Gmail comes out of BETA

iTunes will get rid of DRM by June.

Remember one of Jason's predictions was that HD-DVD would come out as the winner of the format war, and then three weeks later he was proven wrong? Poor guy, Molly's gonna mock him mercilessly!

Even I don't think it will actually happen, but if it did happen in 2009, I'd be a financial seer for the ages (or more correctly, the guy who actually mentioned this on his blog would be a seer for the ages)

http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2008/12/could_the_stars_be_aligning_fo.php

"As the New York Times Co. is negotiating with lenders over its debt, speculation has been floating around the blogosphere, pushing the premise that Google Inc. should acquire the beleaguered Gray Lady. The thesis (or, rumor, as some would put it) has been around since the beginning of the year, with SpliceToday on Thursday reintroducing the idea of the unorthodox union of the stalwart of old media with the scion of new media."

This takeover makes little direct sense on an operating basis but on a _cultural_ and political basis Brin and Page might be compelled to "save" the Times from Rupert Murdoch.

Jonathan Coulton and Amanda French make a duet album for online and has a good chance of getting a greedy publisher to make them a offer but they refuse and sell there music online and make more then they could at the publisher.

Starcraft 2 and Diablo III (two seperate predictions here) underwhelm due to so much publicity and to little public hands on (or the wrong focus groups)

Runescape gets into next years GOOGLE Zitegiest (bad spelling will continue for Mementh)

AlaCart Pricing will not come to cable TV's but Package pricing will either be released or announced (cable employee here @ comcast but nothing inside knowlage tells me anything yet this is just what I hope)

Tivo comes out on Comcast!!!! Either as a new box type to rent from Comcast or as a upgradeable option that can be rented seperatly.
(saw a photo from one of the test areas of a remote for a Comcast Tivo remote)

Gas goes under $1.00 and the economy either stabalizes or starts to get better.


more later.

I love a good prediction show, I really do.

Last year I predicted:
- Vista will DIE. Windows will yank it off the shelves completely.
(not quite, but Windows 7 is coming soon)
- Live TV online
(Not really. NBC streaming weird angles of football games doesn't do it for me.)
- Beatles on iTunes
(i know nobody cares, but this still befuddles me)
- The SDK for the iPhone will launch iPhone sales into the stratosphere. Soon, even Molly Wood will drool over an Apple product. Well, that might be asking a lot.
(Called it. Molly got an iPhone. Nothing like a good App Store to hook 'em.)
- And you heard it here first, Veronica will return to BOL at least part time.
(Well, I have 16 days left....)