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General discussion

2008 predictions

Nov 15, 2007 10:59AM PST

My humble projections for 2008:

<b>People are coming to the realization that CD/DVD drives are fairly useless.</b>
-> Dell, HP, and Apple will all release notebook / subnotebook computers sans optical drives.

<b>2008 will be the year of the smartphone</b>
-> Some Androids, Blackberries, Windows Mobiles, Treos et al. will be available for $49 (with 2 yr. contract, of course)
-> iPhones will undergo another $200 price drop (DON'T SAY I DIDN'T WARN YOU) and be available for $199
-> Palm will fold or be purchased by someone. (Samsung, Sony, Dell, Google or someone)

<b>No widespread WiMax...yet. (Sorry Tom)</b>

<b>Jason's mug will be posted on the BOL page</b>

Discussion is locked

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2008 Predictions -- MVIS will release a retinal projector
Jan 2, 2008 1:45PM PST

Today MVIS (Microvision) announced they will exhibit a high-definition micro-projector to industry partners that will display high-def images from personal video players. The news release stated this projector will be available in the first half of 2008.

What I'm predicting is that soon after, Microvision will release a retinal projector that will allow a viewer to see in high-def through a spectacle-like apparatus any video their personal video device can play and it will be projected right onto the viewer's retina. MVIS already produces heads-up sets for the military -- this is just a scaled-down version for you and me.

Bye-bye 2" screen, hello panoramic high-def experiential video!

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Heres my take on 2008
Jan 2, 2008 1:46PM PST

Linux will close the gap in the desktop OS market. Less than technically oriented people will finally RTFM and get a clue or three and let tech support guys keep what little hair they have left. Cup holders on computers will be replaced with Multi-format Burners, BD-RW/HD-RW/DVD-+RW/DL/CD-rw etc etc... and people will realize that for storage, and most other things, BD will win out. Terabyte hard drives will be standard on most desktop systems, and along with that, the headaches of backingup. Quad core laptops with 8gb ram, 1gb video, BD/HD/DVD drive, and a 200gb+ 10,000rpm hard drive (I know, doesn't exist, its just a dream), will come down in price in line with the 2008 Harley Davidsons Dynas.

Oh yeah, and Bill Gates will opensource Vista in the final attempt to beat Linux, and it might... NAH!

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HD-DVD and or Blue Ray DVD Will Have HUGE Growth
Jan 2, 2008 1:49PM PST

With the advent of the High Definition Flat panel displays AKA.. LCD, DLP, some plasma Televisions along with TV broadcasting going to HD exclusively, the end of the standard DVD and its demise is soon to come. Individuals will get so use to the much improved picture colors and resolution format that they do not want to go back and watch standard video format again. So expect tremendous growth ahead for this consumer item.

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Prediction
Jan 2, 2008 1:57PM PST

it is looking very very bad.
tech is hot but the dollar isnt.
luxary items and new toys are going to the back of the line
while i fill up my gas tank.

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Remember today
Jan 2, 2008 2:20PM PST

My prediction is from a septuagenarian (quite a mouthful), I'm entering my last quarter of my century, I predict we will continue to dream but my wish is for all of you to enjoy what you have today. I look back at yesterday and then relish what there is today, but my wish to you for 2008 is what you will have tomorrow. Dream on youngsters.

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predictions for 2008
Jan 2, 2008 3:11PM PST

I predict that the new Microsoft op sytem will flop as big as Vista and I won't use it!

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Faster and Hotter
Jan 2, 2008 3:12PM PST

The 10GHz+ chip is waiting around the corner. It will be liquid cooled (naturally) and will require a 5-core radiator from a turbocharged V8 engine to cope.

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Prediction...
Jan 2, 2008 3:14PM PST

2008 will be the year all those past 'blinking 12 o'clock VCRs' (most of which are now in storage somewhere in your house or garage) will blow up and self-destruct!!!

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G4 Cable TV Network will cease operstions
Jan 2, 2008 3:17PM PST

I predict that the pathetic G4 Cable TV Network will cease operstions and go out of business. It is way past time for it to shut down.

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Just as I thought hitachi beat sony again blue ray camcorder
Jan 2, 2008 3:22PM PST

If i am not mistaken I was asking cnet several months ago,when will sony introduce a blue ray camcorder now that they have in the market a blue ray player? My email was probably swallowed by your own SPAM? I also emailed Sony Style when will they have this in the market?Their response was and I quote " we don't discuss or divulge our future plans" It's only logical to say, first they came out w/ the betamax player then the bulky recorder and separate camera for it. then vhs etc.Just as I predicted not Sony but Hitachi beat sony with their blue ray camcorder.Hitachi the inventor of dvd camcorder then just like that sony follow suit with a better cam??That's the advantage of having a competition.So I predict Sony will come out with their own version of a blue Ray handycam perhaps even better.,than blue ray? With another format&far more sophistaked and advanced...the ultimate handycam!!!!

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Prediction for CNET
Jan 2, 2008 3:25PM PST

My main prediction for 2008 is that CNET Networks will go out of business. They will experiment with "restructuring" first, but then that will fail because they won't get the support they need. Then they will end up declaring bankruptcy.

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2008 Prediction
Jan 2, 2008 3:35PM PST

The price of digital picture frames will drop by at least half, the image quality will be better, and they will be a hot Chirstmas gift next year.

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I predict
Jan 2, 2008 3:42PM PST

That Blue-Ray tech will die off and cd/dvd will continue to remain dominant.

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I predict the following....
Jan 2, 2008 5:47PM PST

1. Apple will continue to stubbornly consider itself a "hardware" company and flounder in mediocrity while they pass on the phenomenal opportunity to open up the OS market and deal a crushing blow to Microsoft. I hate to say it, but I don't blame Microsoft for their monopoly...at this point I blame Apple!

2. The optical drive revolution is well under way. We will see many many changes in optical drive tech throughout the computer world....

a. More "ultra-portable" laptops will be offered without optical drives resulting in cheaper portable laptops with lower power consumption and, likely, solid state drives. Battery life will be 4-10 times that of conventional laptops. Portable external laptop optical drives which will be thinner, lighter, slot loading, and USB 2.0 powered.

***NOTE***(with the advent and stunning success of flash drives/cards, especially USB thumb drives, optical drives will become less popular)***NOTE***

b. The Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war will begin to cool down and super-duper-ultra-multi-format optical drives will begin to dominate the market. LG has the leg up and will force other optical drive mfgs to compete. In the end we will see no real "winner" in the "format war" they will both be adopted, though Blu-Ray will have greater success.

3. High def digital downloads are not quite ready for prime time. This format will never completely dominate over physical media. At least not for quite some time. For 2 reasons, first transfer rates. FIOS internet is not yet available to enough people and even with the fastest download speeds it still takes too long to download high def video over the internet, second, storage space. Not everyone has a 1TB hard drive in their rig, and even those who do will quickly find that true high def video takes up a lot of space very quickly. Until these hurdles are overcome and high def downloads can honestly compete with 1080p, video downloads have a long way to go before they can dominate over physical media.

4. "Haters" will continue to whine about Vista woes. SP1's success or failure is irrelevant. Vista will continue to be adopted at a slow and steady pace.

5. Touch screen tech for Apple...iMac's, MacBooks, and possibly tablet's.

6. DRM war continues despite the growing support of DRM free music. While music drifts away from DRM, video will become more restrictive, especially high def video!

That's my 2 cents.

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What I Would Like to See
Jan 2, 2008 3:49PM PST

The digital memory card format (SD, XD, blah blah blah) battle will be brought to a screeming halt when Canon or Fuji jump in and release a digital camera that sports its own USB port for a USB flash drive. It will also have buttons and knobs for settings instead of fiddly menus.

Motherboard BIOS will be stored on a flash drive so that burning a new version won't leave your motherboard useless.

Instead of creating new memory standards all the time, CPU manafacturers will start putting the full complement of ECC RAM on the same die as the CPU.

AMD and Intel will finally agree on a direct-comparison numbering system that works for both companies without confusing the customer, and their comparable CPUs will return to pin-for-pin compatibility.

The Silicon (Hard) Drive will become a reality, starting at 2 Terabytes (real Terabytes), carrying a 9V alaline battery that only needs to be replaced every couple of years.

Ergonomics will be seriously considered and the full-tactile keyboard will return to the PC market--especially on laptops. LCD displays will, as a standard, include touch sensitivity (single or multi).

Manufacturers in general will give up on shaving off yet another 1/4 inch so that products will have a realistic battery life.

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you guys are missing it by a mile: MOLLY WILL FINALLY...
Jan 2, 2008 4:01PM PST

BUY A PVP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[no idea which, but that is an industry turning prediction, right?]
: )

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wishfull thinking
Jan 2, 2008 4:24PM PST

i like all the hdtv's cell phones but to be honest i'm trying to get more mile to the gallon as i see it where were all the earth savingpeople in 1970 or maybe they did not have fuelshortage in history;i want a bio diesel 2cl with gen not too many batteries in a suv drive to california on 2 gallons of peanut oil from birmingham lol,and i have seen the japan's 8 wheel 230mph ellica on tv,i need a truck to pull my boat ..have a great 08

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Automated translation software
Jan 2, 2008 4:59PM PST

The leading providers of automated translation software, will release new machine translation applications to provide compatibility and integration with all other applications.

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Solid State HD's
Jan 2, 2008 5:03PM PST

Just one Prediction

1: Solid state HD's start being introduces in laptops.

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CPU's, GPU's of 08
Jan 2, 2008 5:11PM PST

I'd say that Intel will continue to dominate the CPU market, while AMD lags behind while still making profit with the budget market.

8 core Processors will be a consumer reality introduced by intel, and be the new CPU to have for hard core gamers and professional workstations.

Nvidia will introduce the 9 series of GPU's but fail on their promises again, and only have about a 30% performance gain over the previous generation in real world performance. Yet they will still sell out like crazy and be severely overpriced for the first 3-6 months. before releasing the 9 series, a dual 8800GT will be released, and 6x SLI will be demo'd. Notebook GPU's will release closer to the timeframe of their desktop conterparts from nvidia, with a delay of only 1-2 months, instead of the 8-12 months we are seeing now.

AMD will further show their multi GPU concept, while releasing a GPU that is finally more powerful than Nvidia has to offer at that time, but fail to make it affordable. AMD will create a new more powerful integrated GPU for notebooks but not focus on gaming notebooks.

Based on what I know right now, this is what I predict may happen in 2008, mostly around Spring season.

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Intel
Jan 7, 2008 2:11AM PST

Whatever Intel does, they better do it before the fourth quarter......

AMD has already won Anti-trust cases in Japan and Europe for Intel's predatory activities through the 90s and into the early 2000s. "if you use AMD chips, you will lose your bulk discounts or we may be late in any deliveries,etc."

Once the first was won, AMD chips took off.

Intel will have its activities paraded in the media and companies will backoff regardless of how good their chips are, just to show their lack of bias.

Dell has already restated some of their earnings reflecting Intel related kickbacks...people have been fired.

When a company has to look over its shoulder, it rarely can focus on what is ahead.

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re: CD/DVD drives are fairly useless ?????
Jan 2, 2008 5:21PM PST

I'm curious to know in what sense you feel that "CD/DVD drives are fairly useless"?
Since software distribution is widely made via optical media, it seems to me that such drives are essential.
Perhaps I'm missing something about industry-wide hardware/software changes?
Please advise...
Jefferson / jlinck@jefferson-linck.net

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Espresso Extract
Jan 2, 2008 7:25PM PST

I still would not be able to extract my noon-time
espresso from my CRT monitor...or amI missing something?

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Flash-Flash-Flash
Jan 2, 2008 7:38PM PST

Flash products come into their own.........Flash HD's gain momentum and replace their power hunger counterparts doubling the user time for road warriors.Sandisk is the winner!!!

LED's also become the hot commercial/retail/residential choice of lighting, hundreds of new products emerge and Cree becomes the next Apple Computer with their book of intellectual property.

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Al Gore
Jan 2, 2008 7:44PM PST

Al Gore will invent the next iteration of the internet which will bring peace and harmony to the universe much like Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure.

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Another Prediction
Jan 2, 2008 8:15PM PST

Here's one...
Apple markets the iKitchen, a spill-proof electronic cookbook that will: hold recipes; gather online recipes and guides from the internet; and, interact with net savvy refrigerators to order groceries from online suppliers. It has no keyboard but takes input via a built in microphone or using a stylus on its touch sensitive screen. While a hit with younger foodies, it fails to capture the older market as it looks suspiciously like a Newton...

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Corrections
Jan 3, 2008 11:30AM PST

Excuse me. I think your predictions beg for a few corrections:

Apple markets the iKitchen, a spill-proof electronic cookbook that holds DRM-protected recipes and guides gathered only from the iRecipes store. These are in a proprietary format that cannot be viewed in any other computer or device. Any recipes that include apples in the list of ingredients will be subject to an additional royalty fee. The iKitchen will interact with net savvy refrigerators sold by one select fridge manufacturer and will order groceries from one select online grocery supplying chain. Hackers will figure out a way to connect iKitchen with other fridges and grocery suppliers, but Apple firmware upgrades will be sabotaging that all the time.

It has no keyboard and, **most importantly**, no buttons. It takes input via a built in microphone or using two styluses (iChopsticks - $79 a pair at Apple Store) on its multi-touch sensitive screen. While a hit with younger foodies, it fails to capture the older market as it looks ridiculously limited, pointless and expensive...

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Tech Prediciton for 2008
Jan 2, 2008 8:35PM PST

The further decline in 'hardcore' gaming and the associated machines (XBox 360, PS3)

The further exponential growth of casual gaming and the associated machines (Wii and DS)

Further records in PC gaming of low sales and less games released as the PC continues it's decline as a gaming format due to it's exclusive production of hardcore FPS games as it's only genre, games that are costing the same but getting shorter and short, more and more shallow regarding content and demanding continual hardware upgrades that is not financially feasible in the face of console costs.

When you have the huge success of the Wii and DS, you have a clamouring for retro games on XBox Live and the PS3 equivalent, a huge growth in casual, independent and retro gaming on PC in combination with a huge decline in AAA PC titles from the major publishers, it is obvious a revolution is taking place.

The next 360 and PS3 will look a lot more like the Wii than they will a super computer in your living room (a direction they had been taking over the last 10 years.

The above will have profound effects on the video games industry and the technology industry overall, With the decline of PC gaming over the last 3 years, for example, we have seen a large decline in home PC sales and associated peripherals. This will effect CPU, video card, soundcard, motherboard, ram, monitor, case and other component manufacturers and those selling pre-built PC's into the home market.

If simpler more casual games continue to be successful, the Wii and DS will not need to be upgraded for a while, and if htese simpler games make their way to 360, PS3 and PC, then those machine will not need to be upgraded either, in fact, they will be overpowered for the preferable games of the future.

Massive changes are about to happen in technology as Western Nations continue to tighten their belts due to the price of oil, lack of high wage job production and the housing crisis. As long as you are not in a high wage job, with you job at risk from a global market and a mortgage that takes 70-80% of you net income, you are not going to be buying as much technology.

So, in many ways, 2006 was the start and 2007 and 2008 is continuing the trend. Technology is on an unprecedented slide, led, as always, by the the video games business.

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my prediction for 2008
Jan 2, 2008 8:59PM PST

Microsoft will take over Advanced Micro Devices.

Single chip cpu/gpu will become reality.

The XBOX will wirelessly access a PC's storage capacity to literally create Universes to roam...etc.

Intel will be in court fighting abusive monopoly charges.

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Q: HD DVD or Blu-Ray? A: Neither
Jan 2, 2008 9:09PM PST

The battle will rage on while consumers continue to sit on the sidelines en masse. This isn't 1988 and the lifespans of consumer electronics technology are substantially shorter. The HD DVD vs/ Blu-Ray format war will end about the time that HD downloads (via computers, DVRs, etc.)will have made both obsolete. No one will have made much money (if any) off either format and everyone will have learned a valuable lesson about format standards in the free market, co-operation / co-opetition, and waiting until after marriage.