2008 predictions

Apple will release 20 cm Macbook Mini(not tablet, without optical drive, will use flash in place of hard drive and RAM), decrease size of Macbook, and make a 1 size only Macbook Pro.
iTunes will be #1 music retailer.
Apple will pass Dell, 10% market share, and computers can run Windows and Linux apps in a bubble for free.
Flash memory will become far cheaper and better. ROM sticks will replace CD's for delivering programs.
FiOs will become huge and introduce cheap 100mbps.
There will be RIAA for EMI etc. for DRM free music.(ORA?)
Safari 3 and Firefox 3 will merge.
Three companies (Google, Microsoft, Unknown will buy Yahoo) will be constantly competing for startups.
One blogger with some software knowledge will reign.(ONE BLOGGER TO RULE THEM ALL!)

Apple SDK for Iphone/Itouch will start out restricted (apps only available on itunes or apple website), gaining more openness as time goes on. Unlocking will be more stringent (and ineffective) on the Iphone.

Verizon will invest in GSM technologies for future data/voice plans.

Vista will gain only slightly more popularity in consumer markets, but even lower in business markets.

Tivo will be ubiquitous among DVRs provided by cable providers

I have very little to loose by being wrong... so here's some wild and crazy predicitons.

1. Apple will announce an upcoming OS X version for PC's. They will support limited hardware configurations but they will let users install the operating system on the hardware of their choice. (they've really got nothing to loose by doing this).

2. Facebook will fall from grace. People will realize that a bunch of stupid 3rd party apps make it just as bad as Myspace was.

3. All the major networks will re-sign with itunes after they find out their pet projects were failures. By dropping itunes, they found that they caused piracy to increase because of a greater inconvenience to consumers.

4. Apple will become a LABEL. (they will start promoting their own musicians on itunes).

5. Microsoft will buy CREATIVE in yet another attempt to fix the ZUNE (this is so far out... I know).

I better stop before I get any more laughs.

Great year buz cru!

1. The music industry will still suffer bad revenues due to the bad housing market, skittish consumers and over produced under-talented 'artists' even amid DRM free tracks.

2. Google will fall on its face with Android.

3. PS3 will continue to fail even with the new pricing due primarily to its lack of backwards compatibility. Developers will continue to ignore the PS3 due to its complicated programming and low audience numbers.

4. Xbox 360 will continue to outperform the PS3 due to HD game content, but the Wii will end up selling more units overall due to price. The Wii will still continue to be hard to obtain through most of 2008.

5. Microsoft will release an Xbox 360 with an HD-DVD drive internal.

6. The HD-DVD vs Blue Ray war will not be resolved and consumers will still be just as confused about them.

7. (A Long Shot) An unknown band from a small independant label will 'make it' and sell a large number of copies of their CD without the help of any of the Big 5 labels sealing indie labels as a source of music.

8. The kindle will continue to be a flop.

9. (Another long shot) A non-Apple cell phone manufacturer will introduce a phone that outsells the iPhone.

10. A new music format will be introduced by the record labels in another attempt to 'get more sales' but will flop.

--
Brian W.

Web apps will become more common place, and the line will blur between online/offline apps (thanks to things like Google Gears). Older people won't know when they are working online or offline and it won't matter.

Cross-platform computing will make huge gains. It won't matter so much anymore which operating system you use when many common applications will be able to natively or emulated run in most any OS.

The quad core and highly-power-demanding computer sales will slow down while more power efficient computers will proliferate thanks to web apps and begin the era of the Thin Client.

The Wii will continue to sell out all until until at least the summer and lead all other game systems, but people who buy it will get bored of it after a month or two.

Apple will continue to have significant growth in desktop/laptop sales and will increase their market share by 50%.

Google will offer a way to install Android on phones that didn't come with it.

Dell's Linux distros will have small growth, then stall out at a very small market share.

CD players will not be standard feature in luxury cars anymore, and will instead come with some sort of hard drive/wireless streaming/or mp3 player support.

A small batch of BOL shirts will come out and be quickly sold out, and people will complain like crazy.

Audio DRM will slowly fade away, and more companies will offer both DRM and DRM-free versions of songs. However, the digital video market will ***** and say they are different and insist on DRM still.

Digg will merge, or get bought up.

1) Verizon's promise of an open network for wireless devices will not have taken off. It will turn out to be much more hype than reality, with few, if any devices, available to take advantage of an open network. It turns out that the announcement had more to do with stemming defections to the IPhone.

2) Amazon Unbox and Apple ITunes will be the only dominant players in the video download business, with smaller companies falling by the wayside. ITunes has access to countless IPods, and Unbox's alliance with TIVO will put both companies firmly on top.

3) Big shake-up in the web 2.0 world. Scores of social networking sites will throw in the towel. Facebook will lose market value.

4) RIAA will reduce (or possibly cease) lawsuits against ordinary Americans. They will focus on the worst offenders. Some colleges will pay a flat "licensing fee" to the RIAA to shield students from lawsuits.

5) The Kindle will be a failure. It will still be offered, but it won't take off until a color version comes out a couple of years later.

6) Blockbuster will be on the verge of bankruptcy. Netflix stock will be down. All of this is because Apple becomes a major player in the movie rental business.

7) Apple will announce a new and improved Apple TV aimed at the masses.

Netflix will announce a dedicated set-top box or a partnership with a company sells set-top boxes.

9) TIVO will release a series 4 device.

PS3 ?Arrives? and the marketplace is split 3 ways. Game companies start being reluctant to develop single platform titles. Look for more spin offs from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo.

Hints of the PSP-2 start surfacing.
The DS-2 is a Fall 2008 device. Backwards compatible with DS Games it will meet the PSP head on. The DS will continue to be marketed.

The Xbox 360 Handheld will be released fall 2008. Think ZuneBox Portable. This is Microsofts Home Run. Archos + Xbox.

Vista SP1 disappoints and does not fix the majority of the annoying compatibility issues. MicroSoft will hail Vista as a success, but the groundwork will be set for the Vista Replacment to flop, flop, flop. (Alas MS?s fix to the pending flop are a 2009 Prediction).

The iPhone?s breakthrough use of a touch screen invigorates the phone market resulting in many innovative phones, and more unlocked phones available to the consumer.

The current iPhone will fizzle out. It?s 15 minutes will fade in 2008. (Unless apple fixes the business model which is based on skinning the early adopters).
The iPhone Newton will be released.

Convergence will continue.
At least one Gaming Console with Media Center/DVR functions akin to Windows Media Center or Tivo will be announced. Variations on this theme include including receiver functions so you can use your ?Entertainment Console? as your receiver. Potentially both.

At least one mainstream receiver company will add DVR functionality to their new Media line.

Apple TV will come out with Version 2.0 with DVR.

Rumors of an Apple Gaming Console will start to surface.

Internet TV will continue to grow. Someone is going to pioneer the use of ?Channels? so their version of internet TV will be akin to using a regular TV. Consumers will ?Get it?. Plan B, would be instead of Channels a DVR like interface.

The First Internet Network (akin to TV of old and Cable now) will be born. They may be the ones to offer Internet TV. Not just the crippled offspring of a current Media Giant.

Congress will pass exactly one law friendly to consumers. Either getting rid of a former bad piece of legislation or giving us a small bone christmas treed to some unrelated bill.

The first Linux Desktop will be a Budget Laptop that garners good ratings and sells.

The combined Acer/Gateway will lose market share.

Palm will release their next generation of their OS along with several products to replace the aged Trio?s. Palm will go after the mainstream. Most of whom still don?t use a smart phone. The Palm ?Touch/Flip? (aka iPhone clone with keyboard) will have a slider keyboard for texting and be a hit with Teens.

The Folio will come back.

Wireless speakers will hit the market and finally be viable.

A Private Investment Firm will win the 700mhz spectrum. The net result is the continued mobile data and communications lock down even as the 700mhz spectrum is developed. Communist China will have a more consumer friendly cell phone market than the US.

Sirus and XM merge. The combined company still bleeds red ink in 2008.

The final word on Google and Double click will be ?no?.

A Minor but recognized Media company will ?get it? and go digital and start making money. Buy their stock now?if you can figure out which one it?s going to be.

Verizon and/or Sprint will announce the equivalent of a GSM sim card for CDMA.

The first viable Electric commuter car is released and sells. Ironically the Heater will probably burn gas, alcohol, or propane.

Dataplan/Bandwidth lockdowns continue to hit the news.

Apple will buy a gaming company. Sega perhaps

<ul>
<li>While Microsoft won't admit that Vista is a failure, more people will be moving back to XP, waiting for the next OS from Microsoft instead of using Vista.</li>
<p>
<li>NBC will come running back to iTunes with their tail between their legs</li>
<p>
<li>There will be a major crash of the Internet in the US and maybe even the world. It'll be large enough to be a very sobering reminder of how much we depend on the web and that we need to deal with our infrastructure now.</li>
</ul>

I suppose it's to early to predict/hope that we will be able to jack into the Internet directly through a node in our heads??? Just a modest little link behind our ears maybe?

1. Apple launches iPhone 2.0. People line up to buy it again. It's better than 1.0 (being worse would be quite a feat), but sales figures are just about the same as that of 1.0.

2. A new Vista or Service Pack really straightens everything up. Vista becomes VERY popular and people slowly begin to scoff at the clueless "luddites" who still use XP.

3. Linux on the desktop becomes more irrelevant than ever. Compiz was all they ever got to get regular Joes slightly interested.

4. The Kindle is beaten by a competitor in sales/popularity.

5. Android doesn't really take off due to feuds and conflicts of interest among Google, all carriers and manufacturers that were supposed to support it. Bloggers get mad, call names and point fingers at those who dared not appease to their god's Holy Will.

6. Apple launches a new product based on a new concept created by an 11-year-old kid. It is a modest hit. Still, a hit. Kid shares stage with Jobs.

7. Palm finally launches new phone and platform. It runs on Linux and fills a couple of voids that Android wanted to fill. It is very good, but nothing fantastic. It is the talk of the year nevertheless and all competitors soil their pants over Palm once again. Rumor mills about what they're gonna do in response work overtime. Bono Vox promotes Linux.

8. HTC launches a subnotebook and pits it against Asus' EEE. HTC has a better product and no, it does not run on Linux. Who cares what Bono says? Windows is the operating system of the masses!

9. Molly Wood leaves BOL (noooooooooooo!) She has other plans. Rafe and someone else become regulars. Jason keeps his usual low profile. Tom sticks to BOL, but kicks off something new and big.

10. Veronica gets married, but no babies just yet.

11. It is a tough year. Economy stinks and war breaks out for real in the Middle East soon after the U.S. elections. The holiday season is the gloomiest in decades.

12. Alex From Miami Beach gets e-mail advertising Black Friday anyway.

Note: I seriously hope I am wrong on most counts! I'm just sharing some gut feeling. Though I think the last one is a sure shot.

1. The Major Networks Will not fully recover from the writers strike.
2. By the end of the year Microsoft live version of office will be on par with google docs
3. Xbox 360 and wii will still continue to dominate and the PS3 will still struggle to show if they are worth the price.
4. the new version of the Iphone will put some basic function that it was missing but they will not make it available to the first gen phones.
5. The MPAA is the new RIAA
6. Itunes will not offer DRM-free MP3 instead they will only do AAC
7. The labels that when DRM-free will struggle at first but it will be a success in the end.
8. the last label will not go DRM free unitll the last half of the year.
9. Google Android will turn out to be nothing but nice words on paper. Some company will follow it and some wouldn?t.
10. web 2.0 will start to see its demise the buble will start to burst.

K, these are kinda general and I'm sure repeated, but I've stalled long enough...

1) 2008 is the year of wireless. BT headphones and speakers go mainstream. Home automation from your cell phone b/c...

2) 2008 is the year of the touchscreen. While the microsoft surface is still some time away, everyones obsession with the iphone interface is fed in some pretty ridiculous ways, but also in some good ways (see below)

2) 2008 is also the year of the smartphone.
a) 2nd Gen iPhone drops.
b) 1st Gen iPhone taught people about smartphones, HTC has some great phones on the horizon.
c) WM7 is good, but Android really starts to take off. OS war in 2009.
Either way everyone realizes smartphones are the wave of the future; sales skyrocket. On a slightly larger scale...

3) based on the success of the eee, palmtop computing gets huge; everyone hails the Palm Foleo as ahead of its time. Major brands like Dell jump on board. But of course these'll also have wireless broadband.

4) prediction 2 + 3 = cell-co's get everyone onto the mobile web. Business booms even without 4G.

5) Music and Movies.
a) Music DRM collapses. Studies are published proving DRM is a waste, funding is cut to the RIAA and we are free. All 4 major labels are now on board.
b) Movies and TV however are still years behind, HOWEVER, on-demand goes full speed and the majority of tv shows and movies will be available online immediately after their original airing.
c) Advertisers will realize what a huge market this is as Hulu becomes huge.
d) Also Joost fades away and IPTV does nothing.
e)Finally streaming delivery goes HD with solid set-top boxes and more fiberoptic wires in your neighborhood.

6) With HD streaming and the continued expansion of on-demand content, the DVD format war continues to be a stalemate, but both sides take a hit. Blue-Ray drops to $150 by black friday to compete with HDDVD.

7) More cheap PC's. Despite bad reviews, cheap PC's continue to sell, even with Linux. Prices for mainstream computers will continue to drop becuase of this competition. Dell offers a new PC for $200.

Microsoft. The vista debacle blows over in 2008. Also, next gen Xbox is announced as well as plans for an xbox portable device, maybe with the zune namesake.

9) Seeing green. Green is clearly the new pink... or is it black? Ppl continue to brag about how much better for the environment their products are. The public gets fed up.

10) No web 2.0 burst, social networks become even more integrated into work environments with collaberative tools and the such. Banking even takes off...

11) Mint and the such go big as everyone becomes ok with managing their money online. Old fuddy-duddies still stash cash under their matresses, but when the mortgage crash finally levels out in Q3 of 08 people start investing their money again, Mint and similar sites get big, and online banking becomes the standard.

12) Finally, a little medical prediction. Electronic Medical Records become the standard to be judged against, FINALLY!!!

That's what I got for now. I guess most of these aren't big leaps, but hopefully they are right!
-Dr. Karl

-Apple will introduce a slimmer macbook encased in aluminum
-The Zune will fail into a miserable oblivion even though its cool
-Vista SP3 will be a flop and make vista worse
-RF powered devices will become widespread
-bluetooth will make its way into many popular MP3 players
-wireless n will become a new standard and over publicized
-Apple might buy Yahoo!
-BOL will be even mightier

That is all i can think of at the moment

One thing I would like to see in 2008 is the release of a major console title directly to download. Instead of having to buy the disk, just use the Wii, PS3, or XBox 360 to networking capabilities to purchase and download the game.

Mine first it is obvious the there will be a 3G Iphone
That people will sell computers with out all the crap ware and stop charging for Thunderbird. That the Vista SP1 will make Vista OS a good gaming OS because it isn't otherwise Vista still not a good OS more businesses will stay with Windows 2000 but Vista will not be widely adopted by businesses until 2009.