Try it. If that driver doesn't support your card, the installer will tell you as much and then quit before installing. I believe, since I just downloaded that myself the other day, that it supports down to the GeForce 4 series, so you should be good.

As for the laptops, based on price alone I'd say neither. The first one has the added strike against it (IMO) of being an HP. Laptops are NOT upgrade friendly, so if you buy a low end laptop now, it will forever be a low end laptop. You will be extremely limited in the upgrades you can make, and I'd say you'd probably be lucky to get 18 months of useful life out of it.

As with most electronics, the old adage about getting what you pay for largely applies to computers. You buy cheap, you get cheap. With desktops I'd say never go below $500, and laptops I'd say never go below $1,000 unless we're talking some kind of short term promotional pricing. Anything less and there's just not going to be much of a profit margin on the unit, and so corners are going to be cut somewhere, usually in the quality control department.