"Ep 100: 11 predictions for 11/11/11"
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Ep 100: 11 predictions for 11/11/11
Hi everyone happy nerd in new year 111111. Also veterans -- -- two car.
Men and women who served for us.
And are serving.
But it is 111111. And it is also episode number 100 of the show reporters' roundtable are -- a single tech topic each time Miami needle in the San Francisco.
And I'm so glad that episode 100 is -- new year I'm joined today by an old friend -- Former co worker here at CNET.
Tom Merritt Tom thanks for dialing in.
-- thank you I I I and I'm very happy to be in the roundtable again yes.
It's good to have you back and happy happy -- -- yes.
Or my ninth thanks to our veterans that -- service. Or as my -- we'll call it and that's an area of -- -- parishioners they vegetarian or vegetarian thing.
We had to educate them on that.
But hey listen so -- love 4111111 episode 100 I couldn't do any -- we also started this at 1111 mountain time.
10:11 Pacific that was -- obstacles -- the only real time zone.
Where does he live just out of curiosity lives.
-- -- --
Anyway the only thing we can do on this show that episode 111111111. Is eleven predictions for the next.
Eleven time periods eleven months eleven years you name anyway that's that's our overall framework -- try to get through them come and I worked -- a couple of categories.
And up instead of looking back as we often do on the show on Honda and a topic that just happened though we covered a so -- last week Steve Jobs obviously issues like that.
I thought would look forward in the show. We've done now 99 shows is that -- 100.
And everything we've -- kind of goes into what we think is going to happen. Pretty much in the next year and -- eleven categories and that's just.
Get started -- what do you say.
Let's do it -- start with what we're gonna start because I did canvassed the CNET newsroom here and ask them for their predictions and awfully dark -- -- -- --
It was translucent.
Mr. -- music -- yes --
It's a new nano in -- -- stuff you can see right through an excellent done number one.
I -- everybody and half of the predictions were Apple related so we have to start with our Apple predictions.
And there's some really interesting once Tom do you wanna kick off for shuttle idea with some of the that the cool predictions we have here or.
You know what I'm gonna start with mine -- is my show.
You should you netstat an -- next period of the next eleven months -- Steve Jobs is still running the show at Apple and his products come out that would be the iPad three in your iPhone 5.
Of that the cook products that Tim Cook products don't start to come out until after that -- will see products that are kind of the job troubling never would have done a seven inch iPad and I -- Apple TV what do you think I'm with you on the Apple.
-- and -- and I think that that is.
Possible that will hear an announcement.
About an Apple TV.
It really may be more like thirteen months.
Rather than eleven months 'cause I I have a feeling figured it -- January announcement and I don't think we're gonna hear it this year yeah I think we could -- it next year --
I'm stretching a Mike may be they'll -- it in the fall that's not really like Apple.
Up I do you think you're right that -- products that Steve.
Jobs had a direct influence are and are still yet to come out advocate but he agrees about that -- -- those.
The next few times and and I think that's gonna help Tim Cook a lot because the next iPhone the next iPad are going to be comforting.
Two a lot of Apple fans who might have been a little let down.
By the iPhone four S not being such a big revolution in outside of Syria there's really nothing hugely different about it and the camera --
And they have their own antenna I -- I mean we sect continues when north the next time -- Applegate will always -- -- yet there's always something at every time battery gain antenna -- again at every time an iPhone comes out of its hyper scrutiny and whatever is wrong with -- something wrong with every single product that comes -- from any manufacturer -- anything wrong with the Apple products you know Justin's is elevated just like everything about it.
Apple -- -- elevated to the higher level of -- I know. Josh Lowenstein who covers Apple for us predicts that though the Apple TV you'll have Kinect like controls and kind of wave your hands Annapolis which -- doing.
I I I don't think we'll see that soon if they sing eleven years ago Nokia made all eleven years I think thing will be reading or mines -- --
Well I I would think that we will have the facility to Dudack kind of who hacked -- -- control one -- another content whether it's reading our minds like Mike Leavitt.
Hitting the ball in that little you know demo game. Or or just reading -- hand -- -- baby -- serious gonna talk tunes that you met with.
-- -- and these series gonna predict what you want or you know you want it.
Thought crimes Josh also says and so -- -- -- one of our Apple bloggers they were both talking about the in the looming face off between IOS and OS-X.
Josh hopes that OS-X doesn't high.
But it has shortcomings next that a IOS and Intel first said a maybe it'll merge -- to -- he predicts the merge them together at some point in the future disease beyond eleven months.
Into something that he predicts may be will be called my OS.
Which will. In -- in eleven years Apple would do away with the concept of a tablet vs a phone vs a desktop computer they'll just be one thing.
And they all run everything they're all linked -- in the cloud and if you're trying to do something complicated.
Two -- that's two processor intensive like a render or something difficult.
-- your little device in it'll take their compute job and through the cloud processes that either one of your other devices which has more power or in the cloud itself so Apple -- -- compute server of the sort.
That's kind of a way out their eleven your prediction that I really love because.
It shows you how Apple might actually Begin to bring these two worlds the OS-X in the -- world together.
AA I think elements of this are definitely going to come true I think there's gonna be more -- also -- I can absolutely see Apple -- extending iCloud to be some sort of offs loading processors -- -- do amazing things from your phone and from your tablet.
-- I don't think they ever really will.
Have one operating system on -- platforms they may try to market -- that button that they may try to tell you like it's the same OS Yuba.
They've already done that when -- first came out the -- Steve Jobs said this is OS-X.
Brought down to small form factor and it's actually actually not true at all with.
Out -- and I don't think -- going to run the desktops and laptops with -- know where I could be wrong is -- they get out of the Vista business which a lot of people worried that they might.
Now because -- refreshed the Mac pros and quite along time.
-- -- -- business but not out of the and of the day and you could run -- -- other -- Google reports there are now back prepare of the and they make it out of the Mac Pro business but the IMAX are going strong.
-- and I don't think every -- you're right and then on the ever gonna run IOS on an iMac I could be wrong about that.
May be in eleven years you will hear but I think what we're told birds and I think is nailed it is this idea that.
We will rely on the internal processing power.
Of our devices less and less time and be able to off load more things to the cloud back effect I think -- eleven years -- -- -- -- huge innovation.
Where computers are sharing not only processing carbon Internet connections in a mesh network.
Where you're just accessing kind of a global grid of computing power -- from from your device and and nothing has really double --
Interest thing and also. -- ligaments that this in two years.
Apple kill thunderbolt and bring up yet another new better interconnect -- that. Obsolete every peripheral you have right now.
Markets -- yet and if they like to do --
-- issue number two mobile or hardware on what is going to happen again is this related to Apple Apple may lose its grip on the tablet market looks and with the with the Kindle fire.
With Android tablets and -- -- beginning it -- finally.
I hate this and its iron grid by I don't think the lose their grip but -- they -- no longer will be the only hands yet.
-- -- -- --
Eric Mack says eleven months from now we will see new uses and users for tablets we can't even envision right now and that's that's in less than a year that -- predicting that.
The tablet form factor is so important.
In -- central and it and it is also a wide open area for innovation and for users to come in and and push that innovation for.
Which I pretty much agree with I mean tablets are.
An amazing new and much more important form factor I think than people realize.
Yeah I'd -- to -- almost the college.
Safe prediction it is were coming up with do you.
Is all the time but it's good production because as we get ice cream sandwich as windows finally answers the tablet market now we're gonna see competition currency pressure to emphasize what those new ways of using an -- and there's always -- the bubbles up from the user base that no manufacturer ever plants and and and and no we're gonna see a lot of cool stuff from there.
I think a new mobile form factors gonna be tried because ultra books are finally starting to die thing other than the MacBook Air this idea of creating a middle ground is just not catching on.
Amongst non Mac.
I think Intel is probably gonna lead the charge for a new form factor -- some time and some kind in the long lineage of mid and UMPC -- and netbooks and ultra books that's going to be Simon noted it's going to be set.
I'm crazy mobile form factor that's just the -- going to swap.
I doubt that you think pushed out the do you think it will be Intel what -- that.
Yeah -- you because Intel is always try to find a new way to sell -- -- that's in a market that nobody else had -- pursue when they're feeling the pressure of arm. As.
Arm has dominated the phone -- tablets based Intel's trying to move into that but also trying to create new markets which is why you see Intel pushing ultra so --
I am very curious to see what happens with windows windows eight and if it is able to help Microsoft reinvigorate itself as a as a platform that is exciting not the matters -- we know matters but it's exciting.
Of course Microsoft is also working on Windows Phone everybody who has seen and who has a Windows Phone the new windows operate -- phone offering system.
Thinks is a fantastic platform.
I predict it doesn't matter.
I don't think that.
Because of that that windows can make a serious dent in Apple or Android Smartphones within the next year.
I don't think developers will flock to it.
I I think what'll happen is windows will have a big win in the enterprise no one will notice but I think they'll they'll sign of some huge clients and will sell a -- -- tablets to those clients and those clients will love them and I'll have you know great developer control to do in house apps and in in new and those businesses people will be thrilled with their windows tablets.
About whether they can actually translate -- to consumer market.
I don't know they might be able to.
But I I think.
You know -- I think the the forces are -- line.
Against them because they're not going out low cost and simplicity -- as simple as the metro interface is it still windows underneath which is great.
For an enterprise -- I think -- -- be able to say it's a success is gonna sell a lot of them.
But nobody's gonna think it's a success because they're not gonna see their friends out about using -- -- they'll be using and -- Kindle fire.
Most -- -- is so many enterprise technologies business technology and our driven into the enterprise from the consumer instead of you know in the old way instead of Blackberry driving and -- product into consumers' hands now.
Consumers are driving their products into the enterprise.
Media roundtable on that's.
And Microsoft has got to get the consumer terminal and unless Microsoft can somehow get the Xbox as -- desktop platform in the enterprise I don't know how they get.
-- get a buzz he platform again.
Yeah I I think you're right that they won't sell nearly as many of them as they could -- -- had a big consumer hit on their hand I still think there's enough enterprises out there who proved true this idea of letting.
Their employees bring the product send it to be able lock up a few lucrative contract area out but they are fighting against the tide it's -- really good point.
And you all right you think that aren't gonna take some chair away from Intel -- go to America -- -- yeah yeah.
Well I think I think -- -- when you consider what Nvidia is doing.
-- with the tegra three.
When you consider. What tat what windows is going to do as far as being supported on arm architecture and how they are pretty much -- dominating tablets and phones which are pretty much dominating.
The sales -- an effort to read today that PC sales there are going to go down.
In the next quarter because -- the -- -- -- drops them but the phones and tablets will be out in force.
Arm is going to be its cannot going to be Intel named.
I into laptops and possibly desktops like we're talking about with that OS and conversation and and it goes right back to that the cloud makes it possible because you can offload a lot of stuff you don't need to do local.
Item number three for -- -- social but I don't have the prediction on social -- -- mixing thing about predicting what happens on the social web or with social media.
Is everybody has been so completely wrong about social.
Since way back science fiction -- -- saw.
And -- computers. GPS.
A lot of -- -- incredible technology but it didn't except for I think one or two writers like me in the science fiction did not see the social network coming to completely missed it.
And I -- I don't know what to predict and social time you -- anything there.
I think you know the one thing I'll -- eleven months Google+ is going to become the third prong on the table they're not going to beat FaceBook.
They're going to supplement FaceBook and it's gonna become a little bit of the war whether your FaceBook person or Google+ per -- the Google+ is gonna do and if things different.
-- that they'll be able to capture enough momentum to keep going but FaceBook.
Is going to be better for some peoples of the the first time instead of going -- Friendster died so MySpace could live in MySpace -- of FaceBook at the black ship to competitors -- market but Twitter -- the third.
Leg of that table. And continue because it's entirely different --
They think Google+ on Friday adopted by movies because of direct connect you can say you know just go to plus.
Twilight to receive the latest and sink into the Google+ page.
Button as a comparison movie stars.
Well actually use Twitter more because they like the simplicity of the connection and I'm telling -- those comments and Google+.
They and their spiraling down into YouTube quality.
I can -- the directions are going and and and public personalities you know movie stars look.
Liberties they're not going to want to deal with that so they're gonna they're gonna attracting to the Twitter percent.
Which is a more broadcast platform -- CIA I am not bullish on the future of Google+ although I loved it when I first started out -- it was this you know small network.
Now that's getting bigger and I --
I'm still using Twitter and FaceBook more than I use Google+ I stopped using Google+ for much and it breaks my heart because I love the conversations and Google+ I just don't.
Find the value. In because I have to do FaceBook I have to protect their big Google+ is -- giving me I don't know how Google+.
Und gets out of the trough of the hype cycle it was huge and as a though the trough of disappointment has got to climb back slowly I don't know how makes an out of that trough.
While that -- they keep adding features they keep grabbing headlines. They're gonna be in a pitched battle with --
And I think that's why Google+ won't kill FaceBook because what you're talking about that many people like you -- -- now now I've got enough the music FaceBook and Twitter got to be there.
But there's also people who are dying to get away from FaceBook and I see Google+ is a haven and it's different enough like you say with the conversations -- that'll be enough to sway some users over -- we could be seeing a classic.
You know PC and -- tight battle.
I am the fourth and media and music I want to start with music here of people is just the last few days have been predicting the death of the CD.
I think that's inevitable when not in eleven months are certainly buying and this time eleven years from now we will not be sharing -- buying physical media.
In fact I predict that we're not we're gonna stop buying media at all even MP threes.
Instead I think what's gonna happen and and as Spotify and its competitors are showing as -- people are beginning now comfortable with the idea of leasing access.
To a music library that is available to them everywhere -- car.
Their home stereo there a mobile device wherever they can have to get a connection or cache that a connection can be --
They will just lease access to their their music fibers and no longer buy rights to individual tracks that is my prediction.
I. You know first of -- -- going back to the CB prediction that there is still cassettes.
So the idea that CD's are gonna die and eleven months is just what -- the labels will eventually.
They're expensive I think an eleven months the labels will start issuing some music.
Online digital only.
You'll seaside I think that'll be the big thing is like -- Katy Perry's new album is only available digitally can't get it on CD but they're gonna continue to put some music -- library catalogs for older demographics.
They're gonna continue to put that on CD for a long long time just like the -- cassettes will die first.
We'll actually -- -- the you know the finale of anybody making cassette I as far as the subscription --
And partially bare with the I think subscription music's gonna become the dominant way but I think it's gonna break get into two types of user and there will be the cloud based service like Amazon. Or Google or iCloud.
Where you do buy tracks -- and -- people library and the cloud and that's for the collector mind -- he says I wanna have.
Everything. And keep it in a cloud and then there's the subscription.
For the majority of people who are like we care I have and are now -- one always have new stuff to listen to and I think that'll become the more successful but you'll have kind of two different approaches.
-- well -- and other trends you see coming and media.
Not -- -- one of the thinking about media particularly not so much about music but just.
Every second about the death of newspapers newspapers are experimenting with pay walls -- television stations you know fighting with the with the networks about Hulu and digital rights and all of this.
I think we're gonna see on the local level -- we will start with an eleven months we'll see the first major newspapers and television stations go under.
-- they will go we'll see some go out of business and I think farther down the road within eleven years you'll start to see consolidation. So.
What we've had in the past is we have to have a newspaper for your print.
You have to have a television station for your TV and -- a radio station for your audio they can all be owned by one person or not be -- three different enterprises and that's going to go away because of the Internet.
With -- eleven years we're going to see that the New York Times is your local video print and audio provider in new York and and the Washington Post the same in in DC but in in Houston -- might be a television station that that turns into that but it's all on the Internet.
That's where it's going it's all delivered by the Internet.
Still -- newspapers out there in print for a long time out but a lot of them are gonna go belly up I think within the next.
And that will push people more more people to cut the cord and to start to get their content directly over the Internet now of the ethernet -- and their TV instead of the cable Decker TV which I think is great.
Speaking of which.
I think there are two companies are in the content space that are really really worth watching for the next year too and those are HBO and AMC.
Because they are making I believe.
The best content the best story content that people attach to.
And they can go direct they can they HBO is just a matter of time -- -- HBO go.
-- -- available without a cable subscription the only reason they're not right now is because the economics.
Of their -- carrier of the service fees make it work -- -- but as soon as those lines diverged.
There's no reason HBO can't just say okay you -- HBO buy from us directly.
They won't do it they will do it it's a matter of time.
I disagree they won't do it they're gonna get leap frogs they're gonna get leapfrogged by Netflix.
Out by YouTube by who you because what makes HBO and -- grade are the people making the contents and as executive producers out there.
Will sell their contents.
To whoever's paying for Netflix bought house of cards of -- from HBO and -- going to be their first venture into this.
An HD on -- both are digging their heels in and saying no we have tab authentication no we have to sell it through the cable business that's our business.
And they will not be leaping fast enough to get past.
Netflix YouTube may be who may -- some other company that starts to say hey we've got money we're gonna hi we're gonna hire these shows directly and there are going to be obviate it.
Maybe AMC can do -- I definitely don't think HBO.
Some interest thing Aral -- but button in your equation.
Comcast. One of the other cable carriers are Time Warner home or they're not in that they're not in that equation unless they end up buying business.
Whether -- -- gonna try to figure out how to deliver Internet video services to you one way or another their margins are gonna get killed.
Which is great -- -- -- exploring doing an Internet television service directly which is interest.
We have Google prediction which is that -- --
Google. Dave Rosenberg says will spin out their hardware and -- -- into a separate company.
Funded by Google nexus the fifty million initially.
In particular I believe I think we've he's right now there's two things -- -- can spin out first of all I think this is just a matter of time they're gonna spin on Motorola.
And keep the patents -- -- gets me to buy Motorola without the patents does -- they can't absolutely agree with you yet.
That just met you that's it that's a very important question of who the heck would buy Motorola without its patents I don't know what offensively -- has enough patents against rim.
Nobody has enough patents.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
And out -- the other business they could spin out is their server business had to be a serious --
A hardware provider although -- I think that's somewhat less likely because it's so core to their there they're mainstream business model.
You know -- make it -- that that's the --
And we haven't seen Google do but I that Larry -- focus.
On simplification -- totally lead to that and -- saying you know.
Let's let's either attorneys and wholly owned subsidiaries spat that that operate independently. Of oh or let's -- off makes mix and cash because they're -- cord or business.
I I am really --
-- two Larry's.
Efforts to prune the Google tree back to you know its elemental simple and it have the business be as simple as Google searches.
To the end user I think its its.
Necessary after that we're gonna see a sharp rise in Google's fortune -- in Google's earnings because a lot -- less money is going to be spent on projects that aren't.
Turning a profit now you can argue whether that's tutorial through Google long term but I think with an eleven months we will see it as a big profit boost because of --
The one thing that Google might end up suffering from is Apple and Siri.
Schmidt is worried about -- I think rightfully so series this intermediate search.
And right now Siri uses being can use Google.
And is more and more people use Syria on their iPhone -- need to use Google to do search dramatically reduced and that could impact seriously.
Google's. Presence in the emerging very rapidly growing mobile market.
I don't think so.
I understand the logic the end -- BDC of this now but -- been so many times that people have predicted that search would get a copy editor that for.
That operating systems would get our gated by browsers.
And I think search is such -- fundamental underlying technology.
That it's gonna take a lot more than Siri and Siri depends. On Google to work and so it's it's quite possible Google can come out with their own Syrian -- should.
And it's -- stated there's indications that they've started to research that.
A -- series just one thing when you sit down -- your web browser.
Are you going to -- --
No I don't know an RN nine and not today but eventually -- and -- gonna wanna see that you're gonna wanna see either results.
And -- and those --
Is also come from Google and -- have --
And if they come from Google on it via Syria they don't have ads and if Google -- if the Apple doesn't like Google's terms and they just direct the search to Bing and they start to drive down the margins on the search business.
And then Microsoft says we want a little money for that -- money you know and and all that if -- if big and Google both agree we're gonna charge Apple it to user service for Syrian.
-- -- --
An existing interest and on the wireless carrier side Kent German RR wireless expert says the eighteenth Keeney NT mobile merger will not be approved.
And for consumers this is good -- because that means there's more competition but it's really bad for T-Mobile because of their not in great shape without this merger.
-- -- --
Analyst at that I still think it'll probably be approved and I I think Kent has as much chance of being right.
-- it almost except 5050 but I think that you're gonna lose T-Mobile either way.
Whether AT&T buys them or not.
-- T-Mobile is not going to survive it just don't have the ability to compete.
In a land of LTE and LTE advanced they don't they don't have the spectrum to do it -- say they are on the right and -- to get and that's why they don't of the iPhone.
As I -- would have to be specially built to take advantage of the spectrum that T-Mobile holds it's not that they don't have spectrum at the wrong sparked.
That tells Tom what you predict for LT.
Stop I think we're gonna see more third party LTE wholesalers getting in the business lightsquared is doing this and I --
It had a lot of controversy because the spectrum they -- is near to GPS GPS has been overlapping to that -- insisted there's interference the lights are trying to prove that they won't.
Make worse by running their system but what they want to do is say we're gonna provide LTE wireless service across the United States.
We don't care what you do with it on your and so it's not we're going to -- a dumb pipe didn't we -- everybody else doesn't wanna -- and we're gonna make money added sprint is on board with that.
DISH Network is actually looking at doing the same thing and becoming an LTE.
Provider using -- satellites to cover it.
The United States so I think that's gonna become a force here especially addition lightsquared can figure out how to hook up dish has spectrum that doesn't -- -- GPS that can be the -- for.
And uninteresting -- T-Mobile.
-- seven for us in the car space the automobile space. Wayne Cunningham was our car tech expert and echoed what what.
-- -- to be true which is that -- non. Autonomous cars to a degree not all the way self driving will become more and more.
Illegal in other words it would like it is right now.
And if you can actually buy a car with with without anti lock -- breaks.
-- and be unable or ill you could site years ago at the embarrassment. Imus is a race car.
You'll be unable to buy a car without collision avoidance lane change warning.
Automatic breaks automatic cruise control you name -- cars more and more will be able to take care view and it will become illegal to take.
Control of a car to the extent that we do today until eventually.
We have self driving cars and it is illegal on a certain wrote a certain expressway if you want to drive there to actually take manual control.
The eleven year prediction it is an -- an eleven year tradition but it is.
Prediction but it will happen by increments over those parents who won't just be -- -- here where there already have.
And -- -- exactly yeah I think in eleven months cards will not be self driving will be sent.
But there are -- -- and how some cars are already so for a known on on -- ultra.
I -- they're at their cars that did you lane change -- -- to think you talking about but that's that's far from saying that I considered Reid not angle quadrant the work that's.
Tom I sit on the freeway every day.
You're right I want to do it safely well okay well --
That's a different --
On in the robot and AI category are related thing from Josh again from our.
Siri I'm sad to take me to see my ex and Cyril -- driving their Ers say go back inside and -- under the covers.
Now what they they kind of.
Have this on Ford sync and what's EMC called doughnut they've been both -- voice recognition now so its its its.
The Trojan horses is already -- side.
The city the current cola drinks -- waiting to -- B series.
Tim -- X says out over the -- next eleven months -- -- -- major developments in nuclear plant robots that can deal with accidents like Fukushima.
And by 20/20 two we will have weaponized the bi pedal and other robot soldiers to help.
Fight wars as opposed to finding them themselves.
Humanoid robot assistance for the home and office remain a dream have you seen that that you've seen of course the video was a Pep Boys that the big dog.
Matthew I guess you know what's interesting about this is I think that -- Tom points out via a perfect test bed for figuring out.
The what the appropriate.
Its form factor for robot is whether it is by title or not Clinton I think I think -- robot soldiers are going to be aware receive this first like what is the best way for a robot to get around is that by title and the quadra pedal is it on rollers. -- -- -- -- because --
Soldiers need to have the maximum amount of flexibility.
I had to get around and so that it's gonna be the crucible.
In which status found I think we're actually about two years away from the first massively popular robot I think I think top -- X actually -- that.
We're not going to have humanoid robot assistants for home and office but I think we are going to have more room but like.
About robots that but there -- -- they'll do more than just vacuum that they'll do various things for us but they won't be humanoid.
-- robot assistants like he's talking about.
I think it on the -- the correct form factor for robot soldiers is by pedal and I think the reason that we know that is because evolution made as my pedal.
And we won't we when the earth they let -- buy titles we depicts fruit trees does not not be soldiers that had to be happy -- effect.
Known and well. Into their hunters and they're scavengers and bi pedal works for both hunters and gatherers might -- for both.
-- and missing soldiers only need to be hunters they don't need to Begin next week. On a evolution roundtable common -- today.
We have some other -- who were on to number nine here my Microsoft prediction is that eleven years Microsoft is actually two separate companies they finally do split up.
Number one is a consumer company making X boxes and still struggling to be relevant in the tablet space and number two.
And enterprise services company which is really boring along lines of HP and IBM.
And that's where marketing push right now absolutely and if they don't changed.
That's what's going to happen -- gonna be the company that makes the Xbox -- slightly you know.
Slightly popular third tier of phone operating system -- mostly sold to businesses.
And an enterprise company -- I think.
And eleven -- avenue CEO of Microsoft. 61%. Chance of that happening.
On -- on news -- -- tough guy that.
But I think all the odds are stacked against him if I had to pick I say. DO.
That. Is very Smart.
If I would I would -- though not well yeah I would never.
Microsoft -- not stupid a stupid company.
They've -- and it thinks -- changing his mind about what he wants and that CEO position because I'm missing gates is gonna be -- kingmaker here if gates doesn't want Mallard won't happen.
But it gates -- I read the story now on CNET.
Of of how they killed the courier and that's when Mike.
I think that's who they would now.
I think -- a -- one.
I have social commerce commerce prediction number ten about the number in fully flesh it out because.
I don't know I just I see this this emerging.
Consumer paradise and it'll ever happen where you've got -- scrabble which is helping people get gigs when they are just walking around.
And things like air being MB for your couch and really writes your car which -- resource leveling all the stuff that we -- the mostly sits idle.
On I just think there's an impact that a lot of emerging efficiency in this in consumer to consumer.
Commerce that will eventually kill Craig's list and put a serious dent in.
I just don't know exactly how yet that's it's still very fast moving.
Yeah and there's things like square. -- out there -- that's coffee and power.
Saying Maria until -- -- company you have where you can.
Just -- like hey you -- I want to sell this thing instead using Craig's list you just go meet at the coffee shop -- and you sell the thing at the I think this is a this is a good call we're gonna see more more like this I actually feel like.
There's a second economy. Beginning to bubble up.
The -- thing about coffee and power is that they're they're unit of commerce is a token it's it's a barter economy into the site cash out.
And done that in because -- coffee power started by -- -- -- who started second life.
He's used to having shadow economies and that gets really freaky.
Yeah yeah I am not sure and that's gonna put off some people have a feeling that we'll -- yup it it puts me I mean I'm all I don't I don't think the stuff but you know.
The of the future is not mine -- people -- twenty years younger or you know you're used Xbox points you -- and our number eleven here -- who wish it was more exciting and we can come up with some better ones but number eleven Yahoo! and AOL get bought by the same private equity company and merged together -- nobody notices.
That's funny out because it out those two need to be together you know its -- like that that -- bickering people when you're out together with friends that your site.
They're only bickering because they belong together and at AOL is Mooney for Yahoo! to buy them -- Yahoo! just -- didn't at the time a day and AOL can't buy --
And they just can't.
So a private equity firm coming -- be playing matchmaker here's seems like a perfect resolution -- all of this.
I don't think Yahoo! once this at all and Jerry Yang is going to have to leave he's gonna have to be marginalized. Before something like this happens because.
His idea is.
Yahoo! stays in charge of Yahoo! and buy Yahoo! I mean -- chief Yahoo! didn't.
And I'm gonna get a private equity firms a small stake but nobody is getting a majority stake because nobody -- gonna tell me what to do.
We'll see if that strategy can work that seems to be -- is going right now -- Alibaba.
Actually -- to do a hostile offer -- with a private equity firm to take this over.
There's Alibaba -- one AOL I don't know.
I don't know that I think a year from now this is I think -- of one year -- not eleven years and this this.
The AOL Yahoo! issue needs to be resolved within the next. -- within the next.
Year period foreign Gerald.
Is having predicted these Yahoo! and AOL acquisitions like every year for the past three years though -- guts telling me in eleven months time we're gonna be sitting here going Yahoo! really needs to fix.
You know it's looks like doesn't seem like it'll ever happen.
I think you're right sadly it should though.
Our right you know what it's been about that just little more thirty minutes and we actually went through all eleven Tom do we miss anything big you think you know aha I'm.
We -- talk about and we were prepping about security and that that you know it's always easy to say like on eleven months time something really bad it's going to happen to -- do you think that in eleven months time.
Mobile security will be --
That will be the thing that'll be grabbing the headlines -- it will we'll see some of the first really bad viruses that it.
Actually hit that and cause damage in the mobile space but -- there'd been a few damaging ones are their -- big.
I think the attention is going to -- so that's based that's where everybody's usage should.
I think the real issue with mobile securities going to be mobile privacy amber beginning to see alt auto auto chicken products.
And that can become a sniffing product recently walked past something and -- walk past them.
A little gizmo and it identifies you buy your phone's fingerprint.
But what apps you have the you know unique ID whatever it is yours broadcasting.
And that I and I think we're gonna see a major privacy blow up over mobile location tracking and we know.
With the court order or without -- NSA can find people.
By their phone ID but that information is going to leak out to -- -- commute commerce communities and that's going to be --
What I love this idea of on mobile payment it's that don't require meeting Paul might not be today it is is it's square.
That's that's sharp -- that it is that right or is already -- -- -- yesterday at an under the radar conference I believe it was called.
Tag it now that's not it I forget.
-- -- -- -- -- --
One of them is traveling at an app where you -- certain places and uses your GPS. So with that when year old within a hundred meters of the place signs you -- and a it is square because you -- to be using the square register.
That for this to work but.
I once she walked into the store all you have to do is take your purchase up to the -- give me your name and you know like -- I see you here.
You're logged in which undergoes are -- charged.
You know this and that there's another technology that has the same thing which is believe it or not audio.
So you go into a store in this there's a gizmo in the store broadcasting and in in audible signal to your phone picks up and that's how geo locates use or authorize you at that store.
Because that audio signal doesn't leak out it's not GPS -- cheapest -- network inside a mall its audio.
-- -- that's adjusting where you can't -- -- and a GPS block signals but whether it's square doctor -- that you are -- is -- PC world article that says that card case the squares.
Technology can't replace cash registers but whether it's square whether it's somebody else who figures it out this idea being able to just pay.
Interacting much without pulling anything out a year -- your cursor your pants I think that's going to be a big thing.
You're going to be able to stop it.
-- are able to that. To be able to pay in a much easier way than even this group kind of clunky grocery check out.
System that we -- I think that's going to be a big trend.
For sure. Well on that note.
I believe it is time to end this 111111.
Episode 100 of reporters' roundtable Tom thanks for joining us you can find -- other worked on.
Twit Tom tell us where to go to see your smiling face.
-- you can -- all -- stuff that Tom Merritt dot com but I detect these today.
Not every afternoon at 5:30 eastern 2:30 Pacific at live dot twit dot TV.
100 in one of reporters' roundtable until then.
Thanks Tom thanks Stephen for producing all the shows real quick yes if you go ahead -- when -- agreed on -- -- hundreds shows I think Steve producer of reporters' roundtable.
And a --
A surprise for you -- you -- present real quick so.
I don't know London where -- grade I have no idea.
News leaves them with us. For most all the shows he's just and in a great job.
The cake is not alive there's a Kate -- and -- -- you -- man eyes checked it this is so awesome thing and a second.
Programs around but that's not a lie and this is no lack -- commitment.
Now it's great. In an armed men. So gradually since. The -- --
Again I had by congratulated.
That rate that's awesome I'd reporters' roundtable -- has been one of the best shows on CNET since.
Back when I I were there you do great job you've got a great guests. And yes I do the issue really well at this show excepted of course the usually your shows error are fantastic and -- better -- -- this.
The fact that the fifth thanks to -- Tom it was it's great to have you on the show really garbage can make -- for this special show so I'm it's great I love doing the show and hope to do a hundred more.
I have no idea what's gonna happen next week on the show.
But I generally don't.
So thanks again everybody thanks for watching thanks to the cake thanks Tom thanks everybody for watching the show I loved unit -- has -- next time take care.
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