Looking for clues about Facebook's IPO: CNET News Video
CNET News Video: Looking for clues about Facebook's IPO4:33 /
Three top Silicon Valley investors held court at CNET last night. A big topic: Facebook.
Facebook. When's it going public and what does it mean for starters? Soon. Rocks in China and Japan doing the IPO book. So what are guessing the time line? I think, well, I don't think he's in Shanghai visiting with his girlfriend's family 2 weeks before they're gonna go IPO. So, that's probably not why he's in China. Do you think it's just a few weeks away? I'm guessing weeks to single months. Yeah, I think it's late April or May and when we're doing the millennial IPO, the bankers are the same as Facebook and they said, we gotta get this done by the end of March. I said, why the end of March? They said, we got a lot of other stuff we gotta take care of... I'm like, I wonder what they're talking about and then, I figured yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think the rest of their... What does it do for everyone else? Does it increase the mania? Does it increase the panic of the e-mails? Increases valuation, probably cost... Oh my god. How can that be... So that sounds really nice. But I just meant for other companies. Okay, yeah. The rest of the market feels like oh, everything... But does it increase valuation for companies that you'd invest in? Well, probably helps us with our companies getting valuation probably hurts us in terms of valuation for new investments that we're doing. It's good for, probably good for entrepreneurs. I dunno, I mean... They're gonna have a huge currency to buy things with, which is gonna motivate other buyers. But they're not regular buyers. Right. They're very anti acquisition and when they do acquisitions, they're small acquisitions and they tend to screw the investors in the acquisitions. They will move most of the... What do you mean, (Naval?)? Well, they'll move most... the smart acquirers all do this now. For the equi hires, we are basically buying... I don't think that smart acquires screwing investors is actually smart. I think that... Okay. The clever, right? The clever acquires are moving most of the acquisition price into the package for the team and the investors get their money back, maybe with interest if they're lucky. Yeah. So I've seen a lot of investors now... So if Facebook and Google and other folks are watching, that might work for individual age investors. For those of us who are basically producing hundreds of companies on any oasis, note for the record, that will not work. Thank you. I'm wondering if you guys have some perspective on the upcoming Facebook IPO and on the... Facebook's gonna go public. They're gonna make a... of money. We all use it, Gate. Like, that's it. We don't need to like, talk multiple times over it. No, I'm asking. Hear me out. My question is, is if the pricing and after market performance of the Facebook IPO might set the tone for future funding valuations for companies down the road. Yeah, maybe. It's a factor. Next. Facebook's a big ass company. They're doing really well. They're gonna make a lot of money. I think Dave should have invested in... Okay. I used to work for other guys who's one of the biggest investors. Yeah, well what's hilarious is over a long time line, the venture business on average barely makes money or loses money, depending on whose stats you listen to. But Facebook is... So that means for every 10 or 20 or 30 billion made in the Facebook IPO, it gets reinvested in a frenzy and just starts to get lost over time. Just keep that in mind, right? So yeah, that's the effect... I mean, I think that Facebook is distorting what's going on. Like, Facebook is this once in a decade really big business that makes a small number of people a large amount of money and the actual trend is venture is getting a little bit more scientific, we're getting smarter about this business and it's easier to create $25 to $50 million businesses with regularity. Like, that's what's really interesting in what's going on and why it's changing the dynamics because it's actually harder for large funds to make money now because it's easier for entrepreneurs to exit early. They own more of their companies, they're more efficient about it. Like, that's what's cool. And like crowd funding is challenging. Seed investors, seed investors are challenging, A round investors, A round investors are challenging, B round investors, like, there's efficiency throughout the whole system that's going on. Facebook's this big anomaly that is more the old world, not the new world. Yeah, so that's the most interesting thing. People keep talking about the Facebook but like okay, how many people here are really still obsessive users of Facebook or have moved on to something else? Yeah. For me... Over at Facebook, you heard it here first. It's not over, but it's gone so... Shorting Facebook. Facebook has gone so mainstream that I think most people here have moved on to Twitter or Pinterest or whatever. But we're the edge... Or path or a high level... Yeah, I get it. But that's like saying, I don't think Facebook is that interesting to talk about here. No. It's not on the edge anymore.