The only analysis of the Oracle/BEA acquisition that you'll need to read
Marc Fleury's analysis of the Oracle offer for BEA is dead on, and opens up lots of questions.
...is the one written by Marc Fleury, who is always to the point and has nothing to lose. His post is acerbic, direct, and highly insightful on what Oracle would gain from BEA, and what it would have to shed within BEA to make the most of the acquisition. It's a good read.
What does JBoss gain from it? Potentially a lot, at least in the short term.
So who gains? Well obviously Icahn and co and its 12% stake in BEAS are pocketing the full 30% acquisition premium, which is a cool $200m. Not bad, take the money. The shareholders gain, Oracle gains. Ironically IBM and RedHat will see positive windfall from this move in the short term. Customers that were on the fence with BEA renewals and don't like the idea of Oracle controlling too much of their account are going to be persuaded to move. From what I hear from the field, there were already plenty of BEA replacement opportunities for JBoss and this will probably help. Now is the time to systematically go after BEAS installed base both end-user and channel.
Now is the time, because Oracle has proved itself to be a consumate consumer and integrator of companies. If Oracle gets its way, there won't be much time to pick up the scraps left from the confusion left in the wake of the acquisition.
Oracle may have yesterday's licensing model, but it's sure making it look good through exceptional execution and a well-thought out plan (buy a customer base to cross-sell into). Going forward, Microsoft and Oracle are the companies to beat. If Red Hat can digest JBoss well and then get into applications, it, too, could be a strong ecosystem. But it's becoming less clear what SAP and other enterprise software companies do unless they expand...fast.