It's 11/11/11 and it's episode 100 of Reporters' Roundtable. Sounds like an excuse for a predictions show. So here, without further hand-waving justification, are me and Tom Merritt of Tech News Today on TWiT going through 11 categories of tech predictions for the next 11 years. Or 11 months. It varies.
11 prediction categories:
11-month prediction: Steve Jobs' designs still in the pipeline. Tim Cook's products will follow, and not be as good.
11-year prediction: Face-off between iOS and Mac OS X. They'll probably merge.
2. Mobile / Hardware
Apple loses grip on the tablet market. Tablets get really interesting. Microsoft Windows Phone stays irrelevant. Intel pushes new ultramobile platform. ARM makes more inroads.
Google+ will be adopted by movies, but movie stars stick with the more private and easier to manage Twitter. (Rafe: Google+ doesn't succeed.)
4. Media / Music
CDs don't die in 11 or . But for sure in 11 years. People do stop buying media within 11 years, even MP3s. They lease access to a library instead.
Tom: Newspapers, TV stations, and radio stations will finally start failing, leaving room for the survivors to make money as all-in-one Web and OTA services.
Dave Rosenberg: Google will spin out some of their hardware/software designs into a separate company. Maybe servers. More likely handsets (Motorola division). They'll keep the patents, though.
Tom: Google will suddenly see a sharp rise as Larry Page's push towards focus begin to bear fruit
6. Wireless carriers
AT&T and T-Mobile merger will not be approved. For consumers it's a good thing in the short term, but T-Mobile won't make it.
Tom: 3rd-party LTE wholesalers will start to be seen as a threat to the major three in the U.S., and calls for legislation to impede them will grow louder.
It becomes increasingly illegal to drive a car without all sorts of autonomous or collision-avoidance aids turned on.
Tom: Cars will not be self-driving and I will be sad.
8. Robots and AI
By 2022, we'll have weaponized bipedal and other robot soldiers to help fight wars. Humanoid robot assistants for home and office will remain a sci-fi dream.
We'll have Siri on everything, including maybe cars.
Rafe: In 11 years, Microsoft is two companies. 1) a consumer company making XBox, and still struggling to be relevant with a tablet and PC OS; and 2) a boring enterprise services company competing directly with IBM, HP, Xerox, etc.
Tom: Within 11 months, Microsoft will stake out a new strategy under newly named CEO J Allard.
Social commerce (TaskRabbit) and resource sharing (AirBnB, RelayRides) create an efficient, consumer paradise. Craigslist is in trouble.
Yahoo and AOL get bought by the same private equity firm and merged together. No one notices. Tom: Yahoo? They're still around in 11 months? Really?