Linux at 20 percent market share? What crack were they smoking?

Linux to hit 20 percent market share by the end of the year? Come on!

I'm very grateful to Digg user BrokeBody for reminding me of just how intoxicated we were with the Linux desktop back in 2003. BrokeBody points to a fantastically funny (in retrospect) article that quotes Siemens Business Systems on the future of the Linux desktop:

20 percent market share by 2008. The money quote? "We didn't see Linux on the desktop as a major market, but we were wrong."

Well, no. You were right! At least, your first hunch was right. The 20 percent market share number? That must have come after a few garbage bags full of cocaine.

Granted, 2008 has yet to end, but I'm betting that Linux's current standing at less than 1 percent market share on the desktop is unlikely to leap 19 points in six months. I do believe in miracles but, come on, parting the Red Sea might be a bit easier. :-)

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About the author

    Matt Asay is chief operating officer at Canonical, the company behind the Ubuntu Linux operating system. Prior to Canonical, Matt was general manager of the Americas division and vice president of business development at Alfresco, an open-source applications company. Matt brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mjasay.


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