HD DVD debut ups ante in high-stakes game
Toshiba wins one round against its Blu-ray rivals, but the real test will come when consumers vote with their dollars.
In the public relations battle between the warring technologies, HD DVD scored a victory by getting to market first. Toshiba's HD-A1 ($500) and higher-end HD-XA1 ($800) players hit store shelves this week, two months before the first Blu-ray player is scheduled to go on sale.
This is a high-stakes game, and not just for the movie studios, electronics manufacturers or software companies with a piece of the $24 billion home video market. Consumers could lose big by betting on the wrong technology.
As the VHS-Betamax battle showed three decades ago, such confrontations are usually a winner-take-all affair. In that instance, VHS triumphed and studios quickly abandoned the Betamax format. Betamax owners were left with no films to watch and thousands of dollars invested in worthless video equipment.
At this early stage, some analysts believe that casual movie fans should wait for a winner to emerge. Technologies are always fraught with glitches and setbacks and typically are more expensive when they're launched than after they've been on the market for a while. At a time when a low-end DVD player costs $50, the price for an HD DVD machine starts at $500. A top-end Blu-ray player may run as much as $1,800.
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"These aren't products for cost-conscious consumers yet," said IDC analyst Josh Martin.
For TV aficionados who like owning the top tube on the block, there are a few things to consider before buying. (Click here for CNET.com's comments on HD players and read a CNET.com review of the Toshiba machine.)
Neither HD DVD nor Blu-ray can offer movie titles from all seven of the top movie studios. That means buyers of one disc player may be prevented from watching a movie from a studio that doesn't support the format.
Seven studios currently back Blu-ray, while three support HD DVD, and two of those also support Blu-ray. Only Universal Studios supports HD DVD exclusively.
"Content, content, content"
For Andy Parsons, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Promotion Committee in the U.S., the deciding factor for consumers should be "content, content, content," Parsons said.
"It's as important as location is when buying a house," Parsons said. "Remember, you're not buying this equipment because it looks good with your furniture. You're buying it because you want to watch movies. We have a fairly significant leg up because we've brought to market a wider array of (movie studios)."
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The HD DVD camp has promised that nearly 200 movie titles will be available on that format by the end of the year.
Coinciding with the launch of Toshiba's new disc players, Warner Bros. Entertainment is releasing three film titles on the HD DVD format: "Million Dollar Baby," "The Last Samurai" and "Phantom of the Opera."
Warner Bros. is also set to release titles for Blu-ray players when the first one (Samsung's BD-P1000) goes on sale in June, said Stephen Nickerson, Warner Home Video's senior vice president of market management.
When it comes to price, HD DVD wins out at least in the early stages. Initial cost estimates for building blue-laser disc players is more than $400, according to In-Stat. The research firm predicted that the costs should fall considerably by 2010.
While Toshiba's players range from $500 to $800, the least expensive Blu-ray machine is $999. Blu-ray, however, will be available on a bigger selection of players.
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Panasonic has said the DMP-BD10 will cost less than $1,500 when it rolls out in September.
In June, Fujitsu plans to ship desktop PCs featuring Blu-ray disc drives, priced at about $5,000 in Japan. The company also said it intends to manufacture HD DVD-ready PCs, joining electronics giants LG Electronics and Hewlett-Packard in deciding to support both formats.
Sony is due to release a Blu-ray equipped desktop, the Vaio RC, and charge about $2,300.
Sometimes this spring, Toshiba is scheduled to release the first HD DVD notebook: the Qosmio G30. Acer has said that the Aspire 9800 notebook also will feature an HD DVD drive. Prices were not available.
Disc prices that sting
Buying discs can also set movie buffs back. The suggested retail price for Warner Bros. films on HD DVD and Blu-ray is $34.99 for newer titles and $28.99 for catalog films. Blu-ray titles are scheduled to launch in June.
Blank discs from Blu-ray that can be used to record will retail for between $17.99 and $59.99.
A civil war in the home-video market is unlikely to spur consumers to go on a shopping spree. Many are expected to stick with DVDs for a while.
In-Stat predicts that DVD players and recorders will combine for 176.6 million units sold worldwide in 2010. That's a 25 percent increase from the 140.8 million units sold in 2005.
Not surprisingly, both Blu-ray and HD DVD proponents claim their technologies are far superior to DVD. While many analysts agree that the quality of high-definition video is superior, it's not as dramatic as the difference between DVDs and VHS. IDC's Martin recalled that the public was awed by DVD players, which let them jump around to any part of a disk they wanted, instead of fast-forwarding or rewinding on VHS.
"There are certain advantages with the new formats, including additional interactive features," said IDC's Martin. "They've got games and higher-quality recordings, but it's not DVD to VHS."
That opinion was echoed by Laura Behrens, an analyst with research firm Gartner. "The picture quality isn't necessarily as breathtaking this time around as last time," she said.