Sooner or later, I will put all my 2009 predictions together, but in the meantime, I've come up with two business trends that I think we'll see next year:
- Web start-ups will move to premium services and subscriptions
- Self-funding will rule for "ecosystem" plays
Ad-supported sites will move to a "free-mium" approach or die by the end of the year.
Free-mium and paid services will become the norm next year, as advertising wanes and companies realize that ad-supported business models were not that great to begin with. Even Digg, with all its traffic, has little to show for the advertising model.
Large sites will start offering subscription services with premium functions, content, and lots of virtual goods, while product-oriented sites will start to look like those of 37signals: fairly cheap, with decent functionality and good-enough support.
It's one thing for advertising to be a crutch, as you scale up, but it's quite another when all of your revenue is totally dependent on it (even if you're Google.)
There are areas where we'll start seeing a lot more advertising that will seem like a boom--specifically in games and virtual worlds. The sites that figure out how to attract users will figure out ways to keep them engaged with bite-size chunks of new things. Adoption won't be enough in a down economy.
Start-ups looking to build a business model based on other people's products will not get funded.
Building a company to run applications inside of Facebook, or maybe trying to make millions of dollars from an iPhone game? You won't get funded--investors know that Apple and Facebook can easily take your idea and stomp you out of business (even without malicious intent.) Even if you get venture funding, you are looking at painful deal terms. If you are going to build those kinds of applications, your best bet is self-funding.
Building on top of a platform like Amazon Web Services is probably fine, as you could (in theory) move your application to another service. However, there are still some big question marks about building atop something like Force.com that is largely only applicable to Salesforce.com users. You can probably build a business, but it's hard to see raising money for such an endeavor.
Considering the sad state of the economy, the depressed advertising and housing markets, and the fact that there is a tremendous possibility that many companies will be out of business next year, the most likely scenario is a lot of ups and downs.
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