Apple, Samsung to own 50% of smartphone market by 2013

New data from analysts at Cannacord Genuity claim Apple and Samsung will only further cement themselves as leaders in the smartphone market in the coming years.

Market share estimates for Apple and Samsung.
Market share estimates for Apple and Samsung. Cannacord Genuity

Samsung and Apple are already doing a nice job controlling the smartphone market, but in the coming year, things will get even better for the companies, according to a new report.

Cannacord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley wrote in a note to investors today that he believes Apple's and Samsung's combined worldwide market share at the end of the second quarter was 48.1 percent. By the end of the year, that figure could hit 49.7 percent. And by the conclusion of 2013, their combined share could reach 52.3 percent.

Walkley believes that Samsung will take the lion's share of the market, securing 31.3 percent of the space in 2013 with 304.4 million shipments. Apple, meanwhile, will ship 204.1 million iPhones in 2013, helping it to earn 21 percent share, according to the analyst's forecast.

The forecast is only continued good news for Apple and Samsung -- and even more bad news for the companies' competitors. Last month, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu found that Apple and Samsung combine to secure 99 percent of all operating profits in the mobile space . HTC came in third with the remaining 1 percent. If Walkley's estimates come true and Apple and Samsung only further consolidate their power, will there be any operating profits left for all of the others?

Speaking of the others, Walkley doesn't seem too convinced that they'll perform all that well in the marketplace. He believes Nokia, for example, will watch its unit sales drop from 431.8 million in 2009 to 332 million by the end of next year. Motorola Mobility's sales are forecast to decline from 55.1 million to 27.3 million over that period. And although RIM sold 52 million handsets last year, that figure is expected to be cut nearly in half to 26.9 million units by the end of next year.

One another tidbit from Walkley's note: He expects Android and iOS to combine for 85.8 percent market share by the end of 2013. Windows Phone will come in third place with 8.8 percent share. RIM's BlackBerry OS will only be able to muster 2.8 percent share, according to Walkley.

 

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