Analyst expects iPad to pass Mac

Analyst Ashok Kumar sees shipments of the tablet device leaping ahead of the Mac by September. Also, production levels for the next-generation iPhone should hit 12 million by then.

The iPad is set to surpass Apple Mac computer shipments by September, while production levels for the yet-to-be-released iPhone 4G will hit 12 million by that time, according to an analyst.

"By the September quarter, iPad sales volumes should exceed Mac, which, on average, are about 3 million on a quarterly basis," said Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Rodman & Renshaw, in a phone interview Friday. Kumar said that iPad shipments will "easily" reach 4 million by the end of the September quarter.

iPad
The iPad, which went on sale earlier this spring, is expected to surpass the Mac in shipments by September, says analyst Ashok Kumar. Josh P. Miller/CNET

Kumar also commented on the production ramp for the iPhone 4G. "Supply chain checks indicate that 4G production volumes will approach 12 million units by the September quarter," he wrote in a research note sent out Friday. The iPhone 4G is Apple's next-generation iPhone, due later this year.

"Along with 3GS shipments, total iPhone quarterly volume could approach 15 million units in September. If these trends manifest, iPhone volumes for the year will top 40 million units or well above current street estimates. The production volumes are a confirmation that Apple is increasingly becoming carrier agnostic," Kumar wrote.

Kumar continued. "Verizon launch (is) on track for the holidays: With FCC certification behind, the primary gating factor remains the terms of engagement with Verizon. Supply chain checks indicate that Apple will launch the product in time for the holidays. If these events unfold as planned, iPhone quarterly volume (all flavors) could reach 17 million units by December," Kumar wrote.

The iPhone 4G is expected to sport new features like a front-facing camera, better battery life, a higher-resolution display, and new design accents (square design with enlarged aluminum border), and an Apple A4 processor.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs will deliver the opening keynote address June 7 at the company's Worldwide Developers Conference, where he may provide some details on the next-generation iPhone .

An iPhone from Verizon is expected at some point , though neither Verizon nor Apple has confirmed one is coming. Such a deal would mean AT&T would relinquish its current exclusivity to market the iPhone.

About the author

Brooke Crothers writes about mobile computer systems, including laptops, tablets, smartphones: how they define the computing experience and the hardware that makes them tick. He has served as an editor at large at CNET News and a contributing reporter to The New York Times' Bits and Technology sections. His interest in things small began when living in Tokyo in a very small apartment for a very long time.

 

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