My guess is 99%.
I wonder if an attempt to break in into a PC owned by somebody else is prosecutable. Why not ask your local police?
Awhile back an ex sent me an email with a jpeg attached. The jpeg was a picture he had taken. There was an email after it, that asked had I gotten it. I clicked on the picture to download it, and my antivirus flagged the jpeg up as containing a keylogger. What is the likelihood, that he sent this to me deliberately? Is it possible that this keylogger randomly attached itself to the jpeg which he then sent to me.