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About me

• Member since: June 27, 2006

My posting summary

1 to 10 of 19

My comments

• Microsoft - Hastings, a sad mistake
  This is a sad mistake. Netflix was a good idea - mailing DVD's for the price of a first class stamp (minus some discount, e.g. for pre-sorting). But disruptive technology is not what gave birth to Netflix or what allowed it to have a day in the sun. The Netflix model levered the then lack of any material monetization of catalog films.
  
  Now, Blockbuster is doing it. Wal-Mart is making 60,000 catalog titles available online for mail-order purchase starting this June or July. Imagine the price points from Wal-Mart. VOD is going through huge growth and that is very much owing to ever increasing roll in of catalog films to the VOD offerings of cable companies, etc.
  
  It seems that all of Reed Hastings huffing and puffing has created an image of media expertise. Again, I think it is a truly a sad mistake and attests to what people say are Microsoft?s weaknesses. Of all the choices out there, why Reed Hastings? Did he know someone at Microsoft?

  March 26, 2007

  0 replies

• AMD chip helps connects PC to TV
  Red Herring
  AMD Debuts PC-to-TV Chipset
  
  First chipset to incorporate ATI graphics tech will connect computers to large-screen TVs.
  February 28, 2007
  By Michael Cohn
  
  Advanced Micro Devices introduced the first chipsets Wednesday to include graphics technology from its recently acquired ATI division, allowing the semiconductor maker to add extra features for connecting PCs directly to large-screen TVs and monitors, and get a leg up on rival Intel.

  February 28, 2007

  0 replies

• Adjustment to my comment
  I should have said, Thousands (tens of thousands?) of individuals have Netflix shares, directly or in mutual funds, and ...

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies

• Adjustment to my comment
  I should have said, Thousands (tens of thousands?) of individuals have Netflix shares, directly or in mutual funds, and ...

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies

• Netflix - the 'Long Tail' in investing
  The institutions have been selling Netflix shares. Millions of individuals each have dozens, hundreds, maybe even thousands of Netflix shares and will still have them when the shares go below 10. It just works this way, again and again. Netflix was in the right place at the right time - the tide was out when they built their sand castle but the tide is now coming in. The big guys are selling/hedging their positions or even letting it ride since the mutual fund money is not theirs, only the fees and bonuses that have already been spent or has been put in the bank. Don't kid yourself about Netflix. The real competitors are the studios (thru CinemaNow/Movielink or thers), the cables, the sat's, the telco's, Microsoft, Apple, kiosks for new releases, kiosks for in-store download and burn of catalog films... Shoot, Blockbuster's Total Access beats Netflix so Blockbuster may last 6 months past Netflix as an investment. Netflix and Blocbuster will be footnotes between next quarter and next year.The big companies are multi-dimensional - they can leverage via hardware sales or using a loss leader model. George Bush could find his way across the moat that Netflix has.

  January 27, 2007

  1 reply

• Netflix - the 'Long Tail' in investing
  The institutions have been selling Netflix shares. Millions of individuals each have dozens, hundreds, maybe even thousands of Netflix shares and will still have them when the shares go below 10. It just works this way, again and again. Netflix was in the right place at the right time - the tide was out when they built their sand castle but the tide is now coming in. The big guys are selling/hedging their positions or even letting it ride since the mutual fund money is not theirs, only the fees and bonuses that have already been spent or has been put in the bank. Don't kid yourself about Netflix. The real competitors are the studios (thru CinemaNow/Movielink or thers), the cables, the sat's, the telco's, Microsoft, Apple, kiosks for new releases, kiosks for in-store download and burn of catalog films... Shoot, Blockbuster's Total Access beats Netflix so Blockbuster may last 6 months past Netflix as an investment. Netflix and Blocbuster will be footnotes between next quarter and next year.The big companies are multi-dimensional - they can leverage via hardware sales or using a loss leader model. George Bush could find his way across the moat that Netflix has.

  January 27, 2007

  1 reply

• Netflix - total market 13,000,000 subscribers?
  Source of Netflix Subscriber Projections
  
  Netflix Web Site
  ?Online DVD rental is a rapidly growing and still-young market.
  
  In just five years, the total market has grown to an estimated 5.5 million subscribers at the end of 2005, with total estimated rental revenue of nearly $800 million.
  Adams Media Research and Netflix internal estimates project that the total market will have more than 20 million online subscribers in the next five to seven years.?
  
  See from the article below that Adam Media?s portion of the Total Market projection is 13,000,000 households, not the 20,000,000 shown above.
  
  
  http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/may2006/sb20060525_268860.htm
  
  BusinessWeek Online
  MAY 25, 2006
  Hot Growth Companies
  By Timothy J. Mullaney
  Netflix
  
  ...CEO Reed Hastings is thinking much, much bigger. The 45-year-old engineer is committed to hitting 20 million subscribers between 2010 and 2012. That's nearly 20% of U.S. households...
  
  Mind you, plenty of people don't think Netflix can pull all this off. Adams Media Research President Tom Adams says the market for Netflix-style rentals, where most consumers pay about $18 a month for all the movies they want, will crest at around 13 million U.S. households. Adams says many consumers rent on impulse, and Netflix makes them order ahead.

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies

• Netflix - total market 13,000,000 subscribers?
  Source of Netflix Subscriber Projections
  
  Netflix Web Site
  ?Online DVD rental is a rapidly growing and still-young market.
  
  In just five years, the total market has grown to an estimated 5.5 million subscribers at the end of 2005, with total estimated rental revenue of nearly $800 million.
  Adams Media Research and Netflix internal estimates project that the total market will have more than 20 million online subscribers in the next five to seven years.?
  
  See from the article below that Adam Media?s portion of the Total Market projection is 13,000,000 households, not the 20,000,000 shown above.
  
  
  http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/may2006/sb20060525_268860.htm
  
  BusinessWeek Online
  MAY 25, 2006
  Hot Growth Companies
  By Timothy J. Mullaney
  Netflix
  
  ...CEO Reed Hastings is thinking much, much bigger. The 45-year-old engineer is committed to hitting 20 million subscribers between 2010 and 2012. That's nearly 20% of U.S. households...
  
  Mind you, plenty of people don't think Netflix can pull all this off. Adams Media Research President Tom Adams says the market for Netflix-style rentals, where most consumers pay about $18 a month for all the movies they want, will crest at around 13 million U.S. households. Adams says many consumers rent on impulse, and Netflix makes them order ahead.

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies

• Netflix - leass alone than ever
  Reed Hastings forgot the partnership between RealNetworks and GreenCine when asked about competition in the electronic delivery rental space:
  
  Screen Digest
  RealNetworks begins free movie streaming
  21 Jan 07
  
  RealNetworks is to stream full-length independent and documentary movies through its Film.com site. Background information and interviews will accompany each movie... The Movie of the Week will be supported by in-movie sponsorship and advertising whilst the movie catalogue will be provided by content aggregator GreenCine. GreenCine holds more 50,000 titles from 250 genres, either for sale or rent, with 10,000 of these films available on-demand for streaming or download.
  http://www.screendigest.com/online_services/intelligence/broadband/updates/bi-210107-jg1/show
  
  
  
  Actually, he also forgot about Microsoft which rents SD and HD via the Xbox now and via Vista in the very near future.

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies

• Netflix - leass alone than ever
  Reed Hastings forgot the partnership between RealNetworks and GreenCine when asked about competition in the electronic delivery rental space:
  
  Screen Digest
  RealNetworks begins free movie streaming
  21 Jan 07
  
  RealNetworks is to stream full-length independent and documentary movies through its Film.com site. Background information and interviews will accompany each movie... The Movie of the Week will be supported by in-movie sponsorship and advertising whilst the movie catalogue will be provided by content aggregator GreenCine. GreenCine holds more 50,000 titles from 250 genres, either for sale or rent, with 10,000 of these films available on-demand for streaming or download.
  http://www.screendigest.com/online_services/intelligence/broadband/updates/bi-210107-jg1/show
  
  
  
  Actually, he also forgot about Microsoft which rents SD and HD via the Xbox now and via Vista in the very near future.

  January 27, 2007

  0 replies